Mesmo predicts! 
It seems that Belarus took Zelensky’s ultimatum seriously. It’s hard to verify. I can’t find anything (Google) from the major news outlets.
Maybe the Guardian will publish an update soon.
From the Guardian June 19
Monaco is not as safe as it used to be. Not for Ukrainian oligarchs with fortunes made selling booze in Crimea:
Monaco’s minister of state, Christophe Mirmand, said “This is the first time in history, to my knowledge, that such an act has taken place in the principality.” That must be terrible for business.
Speculation on who wanted him dead?
Starts with P and ends with utin.
Wouldn’t surprise me, but what’s the payoff? Articles are presenting the guy as an apolitical oligarch.
Born in Ukraine, Jewish Parents, owns a large alcohol company in Crimea, publicly condemned the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, etc etc-
In 2019, Iermolaiev renounced his Ukrainian citizenship and became a citizen of Cyprus.[11] Iermolaiev claimed in 2024 he had done this because he wanted “international protection.”[18] According to him “The Ukrainian judicial system, to put it mildly, is not ideal, and the tax system is not objective.”[18]
Iermolaiev was sanctioned by the Ukrainian government in 2023 due to the continued operations of his alcohol company in Crimea.[19][20] He has denied these accusations claiming that Russia had seized his grape growing and cognac enterprise in Crimea when it annexed the peninsula in 2014.[21] In December 2024 he legally tried to get the sanctions against him lifted.[21] Iermolaiev has never publicly stated pro-Russian views.[18] He did condemn Russia’s invasion in an interview in 2024 stating “I despise our enemies and believe that they will bear responsibility for the grief they brought to Ukrainian land and to my hometown.”[21] He also claimed he financially supported the Ukrainian Armed Forces.[21]
Calling it “regional” news may be a stretch given the distance, but Canada is now going to buy 12 German submarines to replace and expand its sub fleet, which can’t be good news for Russia. IMHO, if it weren’t for the extreme high cost, Canada would be well-suited for Virginia-class nuclear subs like Australia is doing with AUKUS.
Canada may not want to depend on the U.S. for war equipment too.
No one ought depend on the USA for anything for at least another 75 years. Not even US citizen people.
Some years ago there was a dispute over whether Canada could claim the waterways in-between its Arctic islands as national waters, and there was talk of Canada investing in submarines to patrol the disputed territory.
But fleeing from Monaco dressed as a man after placing a bomb in an apartment building is not safe either:
This could be embarrasing for Kyiv. The police and the secret service may have been the ones paying the killer and killing the killer:
Ukrainian prosecutors said on Tuesday the woman had been found with a gunshot wound to the head and that two men had been arrested in connection with the case, including an officer with Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) and a former law enforcement officer.
Prosecutors said in a statement that Berezovska received cryptocurrency payments from the two men who were later arrested, leading investigators to treat them as “individuals potentially involved in the attempted murder in Monaco”. They added that the serving HUR officer was “acting on his own initiative” and did not inform his superiors about his contacts with Berezovska.
Prosecutors also released footage showing a blood-stained “torture chamber”, containing hammers and other equipment, which they said was discovered during searches of the men’s properties.
Nice people, all of them. And so is the victim.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Iermolaiev [the victim of the original bombing - P-Lux] had been living in Monaco as part of a group of wealthy Ukrainian businessmen and politicians that independent Ukrainian media labelled the “Monaco battalion”.
Ukraine imposed sanctions on Iermolaiev in 2023, alleging he had maintained business links with Russian entities operating in Ukrainian territories occupied by Moscow, including Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014.
Remember, Ukraine isn’t far removed from its roots as a second-world country, and they do still have a lot of corruption and organized crime. Zelenskyy is doing what he can to clean it up, and he’s doing a pretty good job, but he’s also kind of distracted with other, more pressing issues for the past few years. I’d say it’s more likely that this particular case was all organized crime, with no direct governmental involvement at all.
There are also a few Ukrainians who are sympathetic to Russia. It seems like a weird and risky strategy for Ukraine to target people they don’t like in Europe. It doesn’t really help them, it can only harm them when investigated. When Russia does this sort of thing they know that the suspicion will fall on them and that’s kind of the point - to intimidate and scare opponents, mafia style. But you never know.
That is one of the points that make Ukraine’s accession to the EU problematic. OTOH they have a huge potential to help the EU ward off Putin’s aggression and intimidation. It is going to be nasty, dirty politics and counter-politics all the way down.
Very simplified picture, I know. But when one ignores so many details it is hard to be more precise. One thing I fear is that nasty, dirty politics fosters corruption here too, and also the rise of extremist political parties.
That’s a self-reinforcing spiral as corruption fosters nasty dirty politics too.
Muck of the EU, UK, and the USA are just itching to be converted into a Türkiye or Hungary with a mafiosi as the supreme “democratically” elected leader.
Careful, this is inching off topic. Please don’t pursue the US & UK stuff in this thread.
Minor Moderating:
The Secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions.
PS This tape will self destruct in 5 seconds…
Not sure if this has been discussed upthread. Ukraine has reportedly made major advances in drone warfare. Wouldn’t preventing that technology from falling into Russia’s hands provide a compelling US national security interest in supporting Ukraine that did not exist earlier in the war? If nothing else our defense industry must be itching to get their hands on it.
Or does this belong in a different thread?
It would, but I don’t get the sense at all that the current U.S. administration would comprehend that incentive, or care.