Russia invades Ukraine -- The regional situation

Would that still convince Putin, though? Putin may be inclined to think that the messenger (CIA Director Ratcliffe) personally supports NATO, but have legit reason to doubt the support of Trump himself.

By this point, Trump has shown such a long track record of anti-NATO, pro-Putin behavior, and such a penchant for changing his mind on a topic every 3 days, that this Ratcliffe message is like pre-Holocaust Hitler sending an envoy to assure people, “I have no intention of doing bad thing to Jews.” Everyone’s response would be to raise eyebrows, “Really…?”

The presumption is that a high-ranking enough envoy couldn’t go there and say such things without the full backing of the administration. It isn’t like the director of the CIA can just go on his own initiative.

Perhaps not, but it’s certainly possible that Trump is completely unaware of this trip.

If I had to make a completely blind guess, I’d say that the grownups in the room found a way to get Trump to sign off on the visit without his really understanding what Ratcliffe was planning to do.

I agree, this seems likely.

If so, then this means Putin still has reason to doubt Trump will defend NATO with Article 5. After all, Putin will (quite understandably) reason, “If Trump didn’t truly understand and agree with Ratcliffe’s message to me, or Ratcliffe’s purpose for visiting me, then this visit doesn’t convince me Trump will support NATO. After all, in a war, Trump will be commander-in-chief, not Ratcliffe.”

If Article 5 is triggered and Congress passes a law approving a military response, Trump would have to veto it. There’s a possible scenario after that where two thirds of the house overrides his veto, and then you’d have a constitutional crisis. That’s when the Dems will start talking about impeachment.

How would Putin know that this maneuver was conducted to get Trump’s sign off?

I’m pretty sure Putin knows everything that occurs with the Trump administration within minutes of it actually happening.

Before, most likely. He knows what he told them to do before they do it.

(my clarification in parentheses above)

I could never prove it, of course … but I believe there are many probable scenarios in which Trump’s “commander-in-chief” status would be de facto kneecapped. By direct insubordination of several parties simultaneously, should it come to that – meaning that not only might Trump’s direct order to “do” or “not do” X be subverted, but also that the party responsible for physically enforcing the order (e.g. arresting the insubordinate party) will ALSO ignore their order. And then turtles all the way down. “But what if we didn’t?” can flow both ways.

Putin must understand that Trump does not have Putinian control over the Unites States of America. He has power of a kind, yes, and even plenty of it. But Trump is not now a direct analog of Vladimir Putin.

OK, but ISTM that defiance of a commander-in-chief is much easier to do when it takes the form of refusing to carry out an attack he has ordered. It would be much harder, and more unprecedented, for the defiance to take the form of fighting against Russia (as a response to Russia attack on NATO) when the president has ordered the military to stand down.

Yes, there’s no doubt the form of an eventual “push comes to shove” scenario will be novel in execution and, in its own way, historically fascinating.

Drone tech keeps advancing. It won’t be long before similar drones appear in other conflicts.

The production capacity is shocking. 800 drones used in 4 days?

I wonder what percentage returns back to home base after a mission? Are all the drones crashed into targets?

You don’t know how long they were stockpiling for before the attack.

0, these are OWA drones. “Drones” is a very overloaded term at the moment.

These are just low(er) speed smart(er) cruise missiles. Flying bombs with a terminal guidance system.

it is way past time to retire the term “drone” as utterly useless.

The quantity of drones makes me wonder who’s supplying the circuit boards and other components.

I doubt Russia has the ability to produce the microprocessors and other IC’s.

They’re probably buying fully assembled circuit boards.

This is one of the ways that China is aiding Russia in the war.