Pakistan, however, did transfer key nuclear weapons–related technology through the A.Q. Khan network. Khan provided North Korea with P‑1 and P‑2 centrifuge designs, more than twenty complete centrifuges, thousands of components, and even uranium hexafluoride (UF6) feedstock — in exchange for North Korea’s Nodong missile technology, which Pakistan developed into the Ghauri, a nuclear‑capable medium‑range ballistic missile.
Khan’s network also supplied Iran and Libya with centrifuge designs, components, and technical assistance. Libya even received a complete nuclear weapons design. These transfers were not finished bombs, but they unquestionably count as the sale of nuclear weapons capability.
Israel and South Africa did a lot of trading in material and knowledge in the 70s and 80s. Again, not sure if money changed hands. It’s believed that the material went back to Israel when SA dismantled their nukes in the late 80s.
This article in the defense trade press is free for the next week
Here’s the lede for posterity & searchability:
Denmark’s intelligence service warns that the risk of Russian attacks on NATO countries—including strikes with long-range missiles—is growing, though it still assesses the actual likelihood of such attacks as limited.
One thing that kind of confused me about the claims that larger scale Russian attacks against eastern NATO members were imminent was the lack of a visible build up on their borders. If Russia was going to attack there, it seems we’d see the build up coming, as we did in Ukraine. My blind spot seems to be that I hadn’t really accounted for how close St. Petersburg is to that area, where a lot of Russian military power is already concentrated. This report from the (pretty neoconservative) Atlantic Council back in February lays out what they think the different attack plans Russia could have in that area. They don’t really have any speculation on what else would happen afterward, but they all seem like fairly plausible first attacks that would go beyond hybrid warfare and provocation.
So, I suppose that the message is if you see any of these start to happen, things are probably going to get extra nasty.
Not to mention that attacks don’t really need buildups of conventional forces near the border any more. Preparing waves of drones in warehouses tens of km from the border would be pretty much undetectable.
The implication of the article LSLGuy linked to suggests that Russia’s goal in attacking NATO isn’t to harm NATO itself, it’s to sow seeds of NATO distrust or dislike of Ukraine, to hopefully sever any further NATO support to Ukraine.
By causing explosions on NATO soil, and saying “Oh, it’s because Ukraine’s actions made our drones and missiles hit you by going off-path,” or “Ukrainian drones hit you,” it would false-flag things.
Yeah, that’s why my reply to the thread wasn’t really a reply to LSLGuy. I was made curious about the possibility of conventional war in the area by the Polish president saying that Poland might give up land recently. There didn’t seem to be any reports of troop buildups in the area that would make that possible.
Unrelated to my specifics of my recently cited article, here’s another vote that Russian attacks on NATO, if / when they occur will be anything but a conventional land incursion across the current agreed land borders.
The choices of attack vector can be nearly anything. Just not tanks and artillery & infantry streaming across a border. That was the last war.
And by that definition, it’s pretty clear Russia has already been directly attacking NATO for a couple years now. And indirectly attacking the entire West for coming up on 30 years. (Putin has been in charge for 27 years now).
Belarus has restored an abandoned 1934 railway line near Porechye that ends close to the Lithuanian border, the Latežeris crossing, and the strategically sensitive Suwałki Gap. While the Lithuanian section toward Druskininkai was dismantled in 2000, Belarus recently renovated its tracks and built a connecting road toward the border. This development has drawn regional security concern amid the closure of the Latežeris crossing and Lithuania’s installation of anti-tank defenses along the area.
In 2001 just before the 9-11 terrorist attacks, Mike Wallace of 60 Minutes investigated the former Soviet Union’s covert bioweapons program to weaponize smallpox. The Soviet Union was among the leaders of the global program to eradicate smallpox– apparently, so their stocks of smallpox would be that much more lethal if released.
Apparently Trump has made a deal with Putin for Russian diesel to be delivered to the US, just in time for the midterms:
I am curious how Russia is going to come up with spare fuel when they don’t have enough for themselves although I suppose Putin doesn’t care if regular folks in Russia suffer. I also wonder how much money Russia is getting for this. I would imagine Putin knows well enough to demand payment in advance.