Ruth Bader Ginsburg has passed away

I agree that we need to start being more specific and all-encompassing in our legislative efforts, and stop passing the buck to the SCOTUS. But so-called “court packing” would also be a completely constitutional remedy, as would adding states to the union to do something about the extremely gerrymandered rural skew of the Senate. (People talk about DC and PR, and those are a good start; but what about Guam, American Samoa, and the U.S. Virgin Islands?)

I do want to call out some “fuzzy math” I see on both sides of the aisle these past few days. (Yes, I’m engaging in “bothsidesism”, sue me.)

Ted Cruz has been making the rounds arguing that “the American people spoke” by voting to expand the GOP’s Senate majority in 2018. This, in his telling, means there was a popular mandate for “constitutional judges” (meaning right wing ones). But here are the facts: in 2016 Republicans got 40 million votes for their Senate candidates, while Democrats got 51 million. In 2018, when they “expanded their majority” (and they did actually do that, mind you: I’m just quoting Cruz, not using “scare quotes”), GOP Senate candidates got 34.7 million votes and Democrats received 52.2 million! All of which underlines the absolute necessity for us to add some more states, both to enfranchise millions of U.S. citizens in the Senate and to counterbalance the absurdly rightward skew we get from having Wyoming, Alaska, and the Dakotas combine for eight percent of the Senate despite making up less than one percent of the U.S. population, while California has twelve percent of the population but only two percent of the Senate.

However, I see some dubious claims coming from Democrats as well. One is the oft-mentioned idea that the GOP will claim control of the Court “for a generation”. How long is a generation? When I hear that, I think 25-30 years. But both Thomas and Alito are in their seventies, and Roberts is 65. Replacing two of those three makes for a liberal majority again, and that shouldn’t take “a generation” even if we don’t pack the Court (which we should).

Then there’s Chuck Schumer, who said yesterday that “If Leader McConnell presses forward, the Republican majority will have stolen two Supreme Court seats four years apart”. That makes no sense whatever. If they do this, you can argue either that the 2016 seat was stolen, or that this one is being stolen. You can even argue that neither of them is a theft. But how can you argue that both of them are? It’s fundamentally contradictory. (No more contradictory, of course, than Lindsay Graham has been from 2018 to now.)

The Ginsburg army!

They can try and replace her
But they’ll never erase her!

nm…

The more you pack seats onto SCOTUS, the less people will take SCOTUS seriously. And eventually states and local governments will simply begin to openly flout SCOTUS and dare it to enforce its rulings on them.

Regardless of who they put on the Court, I can almost definitely say that their rulings going forward will be ruthless.

The assumption underlying this hypothetical is that Trump would submit to an election in 2024.

I think that’s unlikely. More likely, if he remains after 21 January 2021: that he declares a National Emergency (on any one of dozens of pretexts) and calls off elections “for the duration.” He would then appoint all federal, state, and local officials, in all states.

Because who is going to stop him?

Seriously: who?

I look forward to the day when decisions by the DoJ will be barrless.

No holds barred?

~Max

The states themselves would not roll over for this. It would be civil war. And the “Union” army in this case would not just eagerly go to war for Trump. The military brass doesn’t like him, and a majority of the rank and file is for Biden this time around (after a majority supported Trump over Hillary). Unlike in the Civil War in the 1860s, we wouldn’t have a Fort Sumter scenario to rally support among the “Union Army”. California et al would simply refuse to accept the illegal attempt by Trump to install his officials at the state and local level. You have to then believe soldiers from the top generals on down would take orders to go and shoot other Americans for refusing an obvious, blatantly illegal action like this.

That didn’t even work in the USSR in 1991, where they had far more precedent for that sort of thing. No way would it fly here. Not to mention that, as a pundit I like said, Trump is “too lazy to oversee a civil war”. And I’d add, too incompetent. He’d rather just bow out and kvetch on Twitter about how unfair it all was.

No Barrs at all.

All Barrs held.

It’s hard to build something noteworthy enough to get people to remember your name all down history.

Much easier to be remembered as the one who destroyed it.

Does anyone know offhand the name of the architect or designer of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building or of the Twin Towers?

To take the last part first: yes, of course Trump is lazy and incompetent, but he has people more than willing to put in the work necessary to keeping him in power indefinitely–because they know they will be profiting greatly, themselves.

As for the states rising up to stop Trump: most of the scenarios currently being discussed—the paths to ‘winning’ a new term—involve the willing participation of various (red or nearly-red) state legislatures and/or governors. Once they’ve gone all-in for Trump, committing questionable or at least unprecedented acts to do so, they have an extra incentive to make sure no one can displace Trump. They are powerfully motivated, in other words, to make sure that the current corrupt Administration stays in place. If it goes, they can expect legal consequences that they won’t like.

So, sure: the blue states won’t go along with the Trump grab for the Presidency-for-Life. But the federal government has all sorts of carrots and sticks at its disposal. Increase taxes on the blue states! Cut off residents of the blue states from all Social Security and Medicare! Cut off all FEMA and other aid!

What a reasonably-clever Trump-functionary will be able to achieve is to get the residents of blue states clamoring for their state governments to Do What Trump Says. All that’s needed is some good propaganda, widely disseminated, that will blame the blue-state governors and legislatures for all the ills now befalling those state residents, and there will be mass demonstrations in favor of letting Trump have his way. Just cooperate; we’re in a crisis here! Stop being so stubborn!

It can’t happen here?

Why not?

there will be mass armed demonstrations in favor of letting Trump have his way.

Yes, that IS too important an adjective to have forgotten.

NPR (specifically “All Things Considered”) had a story relevant to this topic, today:

There’s a huge flaw in this plan. Blue states are net donors to the federal government in terms of federal income tax paid vs. benefits distributed to them. They can just stop sending the feds any taxes, take the same amount out of paychecks themselves, set up their own SS, FEMA, etc., profit.

ETA: You didn’t mention anything here about the House. I guess the GOP is stealing those elections too? I mean, a fundamentally illegitimate power grab like you are describing doesn’t leave any normal infrastructure to do any of this. It would come down to doing a bunch of blatantly illegal stuff, then telling the military to go enforce it in blue states, banana republic style. That’s a pretty big lift.

Wouldn’t ceasing to remit taxes be considered a reasonable basis for armed occupation of those jurisdictions?

For example:

I assume at the time of the Whiskey Rebellion, we didn’t have a president who disregarded election outcomes (including the outcomes of congressional elections) and did whatever he wanted, stayed in office as long as he wanted, tried to rule by decree, etc. Once you do that, there’s not even the veneer of legality to any of it. You are just declaring yourself president-for-life and trying to get the military to back your naked power grab.

Sure, but for that president to succeed, he has to give other people—people in positions of power, who can either support him or refuse to support him—plausible pretexts for supporting him.

So as an example, ‘the California governor and legislature have declared that no California resident or business need pay federal income taxes’ would be a reason-to-support-Trump’s-power-grab that many might declare to be righteous and patriotic. But on the other hand if Trump, out of the blue, declared war on California and ordered the Joint Chiefs to send in troops, that would NOT be a plausible reason for supporting Trump’s power-grab. The pretext for supporting Trump would be missing if he just gave the order as if on a whim.

Even in extraordinary times, people want to believe–or at least be able to claim–that they are acting with legitimacy.