Saddam... dead or alive? (After the strike on the bunker)

[Musicat]

According to CBS News, “Man on tape is Saddam.”

From that article:

A German forensic pathologist studied hundreds of Hussein photos and videotapes,concentrating on his mustache and eyebrow measurements.

Then he used computer software to locate specific points such as the tip of his nose and the cheekbone creating a face print which was compared to the Hussein photographs.

His conclusion: that there are three Hussein impersonators, all with small, distinct differences.

Or there are four impersonators, and the expert can’t distinguish from two.

Or there are two impersonators, and one of them had a bad day.

Or there are no impersonators, and Saddam changes his makeup and doesn’t get enough sleep inbetween takes.

I wonder if a Hollywood makeup artist ever prepared one or more people and included a professionally-produced, unlabeled tape of one of these in the batch examined by the expert? If not, we have no controls on this experiment.

Voice analysis was probably done, too. If you pick up a copy of April Harper’s magazine, on page 70 you will find an interesting article by Brendan I. Koerner of the Osama voice tape analysis. (Sorry, Harper’s has a web site, but the article is not and probably will not be posted there.) Koerner says:

Forensic speaker identification, which is admissible as legal evidence in thirty-five states, assumes that no two human voices are alike, determined as they are by the dimensions of vocal cords, lips, teeth, and jaw muscles; the odds of two non-twins possessiong identical physiological equipment are remote. This theory, although seemingly logical, has never been subjected to peer-reviewed scrutiny. What is known for sure is that the human voice varies significantly from day to day, even from minute to minute, due to stress, sickness, or even diet. Voice analysts insist that such variation can be accounted for, and that mimics cannot fool an experienced practitioner. But the error rate of forensic audio analysis remains uncertain, ranging in varioius studies from less than 1 percent to as high as 44 percent.

Regarding the audio equipment/software used by the experts:

Automated systems such as those used by both the NSA and [Swiss speach-research institute] IDIAP are not built to sift through such sonic detritus [as background noise, reverberation, or other audio mishaps]. They are geared instead toward “biometric” tasks: e.g., voice-activated access…Such systems are not designed to analyze sounds from an uncontrolled, real-world situation…

(Although I would imagine Saddam’s tape is of better quality than the Osama phone call one.)

In short, I don’t trust any pronouncement that Saddam is alive or dead without more proof than just an “expert” watching TV.

[Boo]

according to the drudge report (take it for what it is worth), eye witnesses saw saddam being carried out of the bunker on a gurney with an oxygen mask on…

www.drudgereport.com

[Musicat]

According to the Washington Post, the man on the tape is NOT Saddam.

from the Washington Post
But the government also consulted Parisoula Lampsos, who the Defense Department believes has passed a polygraph examination in support of her claim that she was Hussein’s mistress in Iraq for many years. Lampsos has previously distinguished Hussein from his doubles in more than a dozen cases, one official said, and this time she said he was not the man in the broadcast.

Another “expert” heard from. Lessee, this one has been certified by polygraph, which in itself is suspect, and she says…

I doubt if her “previously distinguished” tests have been verified, either, so just how valid is all this crap other than newspaper filler?

[asterion]

In any case, right now we don’t know. I doubt that we will really even be able to know until troops get into Baghdad. Even after that, it might take a while.

[Musicat]

I recall (but can’t remember just where) recently hearing that the only sure way to verify Saddam’s body was really him would be to do a DNA test, and that seems reasonable.

But a DNA test is no good if you don’t have a sample to compare it to. An exact sample from the original party is best, but a sample from a close relative would be pretty good.

So does the U.S. really have an absolutely unquestionable Saddam Hussein DNA sample? Where would they have gotten it? Is there a DNA black market? Did he ever get medical attention from the U.S. or reliable allies? Hunh?

Inquiring minds want to know.

[Sam_Stone]

I’ve heard that the U.S. does NOT have a DNA sample from Hussein or his close relatives.

However, he has two sons and three daughters, so after the war I imagine that some DNA can be acquired. One of the sons is already reportedly either dead or severely injured.