In the very long thread "Russia invades Ukraine"in MPSIMS there is a post about economic sanctions, by cardigan.
I want to ask about it, but in that thread it would be off-topic. so
I’m quoting the entire post #6672 here, with its links:
I came across this very encouraging study conducted by Yale that purports to show the Russian economy has been positively crippled by the sanctions.
Here’s an interview and an article about the study:
Study shows: Western sanctions take a heavy toll on Russia’s economy | DW News - YouTube
Sanctions ‘catastrophically crippling’ Russian economy, study finds | Euronews
Here’s the paper itself:
Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Steven Tian, Franek Sokolowski, Michal Wyrebkowski, Mateusz Kasprowicz :: SSRN
In brief, Russia has tried to show the world it’s laughing off sanctions by cooking its books ala Enron. What the Yale study looked at was not what Russia was reporting, but rather, what all the countries that are trading with Russia are reporting. Those figures show Russia’s imports have been reduced to next to nothing.
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Okay, that all sounds good. But now my question is :… “So What?”
Sure, Yale University is a pretty respectable source. And their facts and statistics seem reliable.
But professors of economics are, well, only professors. (Ivory Tower, and all that .)
And economists are , well, only economists. (There’s an old joke that economists have successfully predicted 9 of the the last 3 recessions.)
And there’s that old saying that you can prove anything with statistics “there are lies, damn horrible lies, and statistics.”
So my question is less about the numbers, and more about what’s happening socially in Russia. If I could visit a typical shopping mall in Moscow, would I see any signs of this impending economic collapse that the professors are talking about?
There have been a few stories in the news recently about how Russian companies are having problems. The new Russian owner of McDonald’s can’t import the kind of potatoes that make McD’s french fries. And the Lada car company is selling cars without airbags, presumably because they can’t import the electronics parts. And Russian soldiers were seen looting washing machines from Ukrainian houses,( maybe because the electronic circuits inside can be re-used, or maybe just because soldiers are looting everything and anything then can grab?)
But those seem like minor problems.
What about life for the average civilian in Russia? Are they starting to notice that this war ( oops, “special military operation”) is affecting them personally?
And even if so, what difference does it make in a dictatorship? Putin and his oligarchs will still control the economy. And even if the Russian GNP shrinks by tens of billions of rubles,. they will still be able to take their couple hundred million off the top , and let the rest of the population suffer.
I\m not sure that economic sanctions will have any effect on ending the war.