The other solution, of course, would be to move the baskets another 25 kilometers or so further away from the front so they’re out of range of HIMARS. But again, this increases logistical friction as the supply trucks will then have to drive farther, consume more fuel, take longer to deliver, add wear and tear to the vehicles, and ultimately result in a longer and slower supply chain. It’s more challenging to maintain an offensive tempo when all these factors seek to slow things down.
I’m of the opinion the Russians made their biggest mistakes and miscalculations at the very beginning of this conflict when the political leadership calculated Ukrainian resistance would very quickly crumble, and have paid a steep price for it ever since, but don’t regard the Russian army on the whole as being incompetent. They’ve been facing the challenges of low morale, understaffed units, and supply shortfalls. However, they’ve been smart enough to use tactics where they can still manage to make slow steady advances while facing the aforementioned challenges. Ukraine didn’t really have a counter for artillery-attrition-maneuver tactics Russians have successfully employed until HIMARS arrived.
I think the big questions that will decide this conflict mostly come down to economic factors:
- How long will the west continue to maintain unified support for the conflict when diminishing energy supplies from Russia (and remember they are making MORE money now while delivering LESS energy thanks to scarcity) threaten to spark a global recession?
- How badly is the Russian economy going to suffer under sanctions?
- How long will the Russian population endure economic hardship from - what most Russians will regard as - NATO imposed sanctions?
- Will sanctions be effectively enforced over time? (historically, the longer sanctions go the more ways they are circumvented)
- Could the Russian economy continue to function in the absence of energy revenue?
- How long before the Russian people begin to understand the true scope and cost of the conflict?