So how many shells would be in one of these big dumps? Hundreds of thousands? A Million?
The other solution, of course, would be to move the baskets another 25 kilometers or so further away from the front so they’re out of range of HIMARS. But again, this increases logistical friction as the supply trucks will then have to drive farther, consume more fuel, take longer to deliver, add wear and tear to the vehicles, and ultimately result in a longer and slower supply chain. It’s more challenging to maintain an offensive tempo when all these factors seek to slow things down.
I’m of the opinion the Russians made their biggest mistakes and miscalculations at the very beginning of this conflict when the political leadership calculated Ukrainian resistance would very quickly crumble, and have paid a steep price for it ever since, but don’t regard the Russian army on the whole as being incompetent. They’ve been facing the challenges of low morale, understaffed units, and supply shortfalls. However, they’ve been smart enough to use tactics where they can still manage to make slow steady advances while facing the aforementioned challenges. Ukraine didn’t really have a counter for artillery-attrition-maneuver tactics Russians have successfully employed until HIMARS arrived.
I think the big questions that will decide this conflict mostly come down to economic factors:
- How long will the west continue to maintain unified support for the conflict when diminishing energy supplies from Russia (and remember they are making MORE money now while delivering LESS energy thanks to scarcity) threaten to spark a global recession?
- How badly is the Russian economy going to suffer under sanctions?
- How long will the Russian population endure economic hardship from - what most Russians will regard as - NATO imposed sanctions?
- Will sanctions be effectively enforced over time? (historically, the longer sanctions go the more ways they are circumvented)
- Could the Russian economy continue to function in the absence of energy revenue?
- How long before the Russian people begin to understand the true scope and cost of the conflict?
Any day I expect to see a new clickbait:
“THE TEN GAME-CHANGING THINGS THAT RUSSIA COULD DO TO IMPROVE THEIR MILITARY EFFECTIVENESS”
This one weird trick…
Do you think Putin’s collapse will be abrupt and unexpected?
I expect there’s a tipping point. The military losses and sanctions will become burdensome.
Putin has always projected power. The horseback riding, judo, and other masculine stuff matters to Russian people. He’s no longer that guy.
What happens in Kherson could be critical. That would be a big loss for Russia.
Watched a YouTube video yesterday where Anders Nielsen said he thought the conflict could end in a victory for Ukraine in one of three ways:
- Ukraine gradually retakes all the territory the Russians took.
- There is a sudden collapse of Russian defenses
- Sudden change where Putin loses power and the new power abruptly decides to end conflict.
None of these outcomes seems highly likely in the near or intermediate future, but Putin losing power seems the least unlikely of the three. If that were to happen, then yes, the situation would change very quickly. However, I think things would have to get economically much MUCH worse inside Russia for that to occur.
You won’t believe number 4!!!
Easy.
- Surrender their position in Crimea (full-on Jack Nicholson as Colonel Jessup, except be serious).
- Do likewise in the occupied territories of eastern Ukraine.
- Direct forces to withdraw in good order where possible to do so without further violence.
- Direct forces to surrender immediately where not.
- Overthrow Putin (this could come before or after 1 thru 4).
- Offer to pay reparations to Ukraine.
- Propose to surrender Putin to a court of competent jurisdiction in exchange for limiting reparations owed to actual costs, payable on a long-term schedule, with a very favorable interest rate.
- Conduct a comprehensive review of the Russian military’s performance in the field.
- Enact provisions for the treatment and long-term care of injured soldiers.
- Reconstitute the Russian military based on lessons learned and a volunteer force.
I think it will be pretty abrupt. He’ll be seen as unbeatable right up to about 10 seconds before someone puts a bullet in him. Picture Julius Caesar in the Senate.
Yeah, if he’s going to go by something other than natural causes, it will have to be a surprise. He’ll try to stop anything he can see coming.
Yeah, it’s natural causes or one of his people turning on him. While the situation in Ukraine could, possibly, turn into a military defeat for Russia, there’s no way that defeat extends farther than artillery range into Russia itself. If Putin dies from violence, it will be internal forces that kill him, not external.
So, at lunch time I came across this very encouraging study conducted by Yale that purports to show the Russian economy has been positively crippled by the sanctions.
Here’s an interview and an article about the study:
Study shows: Western sanctions take a heavy toll on Russia’s economy | DW News - YouTube
Sanctions ‘catastrophically crippling’ Russian economy, study finds | Euronews
Here’s the paper itself:
Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Steven Tian, Franek Sokolowski, Michal Wyrebkowski, Mateusz Kasprowicz :: SSRN
In brief, Russia has tried to show the world it’s laughing off sanctions by cooking its books ala Enron. What the Yale study looked at was not what Russia was reporting, but rather, what all the countries that are trading with Russia are reporting. Those figures show Russia’s imports have been reduced to next to nothing.
Moldova is increasingly worried about being invaded. And Latvia is pondering bringing back their draft.
That would be really bad. Spillover into Romania would pull NATO in.
As an American, I can’t imagine the stress it would cause some of the former Soviet countries in having a conflict headed by a hostile neighbor like Russia right next door.
If you are small and next to Russia, you certainly should be watchfully waiting (and seeing if you can buy some long-range artillery), but Russia has its hands full with Ukraine - they’d have to be really nuts to open another front. Of course, if Ukraine actually falls/sues for peace/whatever, then Russia would probably be emboldened to try another assault.
Russia already has troops and equipment in Moldova and the Moldovan military is really shoddy. And it would force Ukraine to divert a lot of attention to their West.
Russia is now saying that Ukraine hit a prison where Azov POWs were held. Smart money is on Russia executing them and then using this as a coverup for more war crimes.
To be fair, Russia’s stated reason for attacking Ukraine is to get rid of the Nazis. If you capture a group of them, treat them good, and give them back then that does sort of put a lie to the whole matter.
That said, Russia’s specific statement is that the Ukrainian-speaking Ukrainians from the Western regions are the Nazis and that they were hell-bent on murdering Russian speakers. When you then use Azov as proof of this - a group of Russian-speakers from the Russian region of the country, who maybe liked to beat up on Roma but who were friendly to Russians - that is problematic for the big lie.
Wish there were a formula of how much Ukrainian nagging and pleading it takes to get foot-dragging America/NATO to give it the necessary weapons. For HIMARS, apparently 1 month of pleading = 16 HIMARS.
Maybe 6 months of pleading will get 50 ATACMS?
Do you mean the Biber specifically, or self-propelled bridging systems in general?
The Biber Armored Vehicle Launched Bridge (AVLB) has been in widespread NATO service since the late 1970s. The idea of AVLBs goes back to World War II.
I understand these are pretty good. But they’re NATO gear, based on the 1970s Leopard I tank chassis, so I guess we’ll find out how fast Ukrainian combat engineer drivers can learn a new vehicle.