Honest to goodness, I’m not trying to start a global warming debate.
Just noting that we’re close to the beginning of the 2006 hurricane season (June 1st), and predictions for this year are well above average. If memory serves, last year they kept revising the forecast upwards, in terms of numbers and intesities of tropical storms and hurricanes, and still the season exceeded expectations.
At any rate, it’s not unreasonable at this juncture to brace for another tough year. Predicted chances for a Cat3+ storm making landfall on the Gulf Coast are about even, and more like 2-in-3 for the S.E. US, including FL.
Suffice to say, FEMA may not have much time left to whip itself into shape before it’s tested by another major disaster. As it is, huge swaths of the Gulf Coast haven’t recovered from Katrina, and we arguably are still feeling the effects of that episode on the American economy. The Natl. Guard is already being taxed, so they say, just fielding the soldiers needed to help border patrol, with so many more having been mobilized for the war in Iraq. It’s a potentially scary picture.
Should this year be somewhat comparable to last year in terms of storm frequency, intensity, and perhaps damage, what do you predict the impact on the US will be, both in political and economic terms? I’m still a bit boggled, even with my usual pessimism, by the continued displacement of tens of thousands from the Gulf region, esp. New Orleans and parts of Mississippi, and wonder how we might function under the strain of perhaps many more flooded communities, homeless survivors, and more vastly expensive damaged infrastructure.
Firstly, I’m curious how AccuWeather came up with the probablilities shown in the illustration in the article linked by Loopydude.
Secondly, it seems that effects of the upcoming season are already being felt in the Gulf coast. At least some of the current run-up crude oil futures, and the resulting increase in gasoline prices, is likely due to speculation over a possible interruption in Gulf oil and gas production similar to what happened last year following the 1-2-3 punches of Dennis, Katrina and Rita.
The overall worst-case scenario, in my view, would be a major hurricane striking the upper Texas Gulf Coast, particularly in the Galveston area. As a resident of the Houston region, I’m thus made a bit nervous by AccuWeather’s predictions. This, of course, was the predicted track of Rita before it turned further north and landed in the Beaumont-Lake Charles area. Not only would Galveston itself suffer major storm surge damage, but there would most likely be considerably greater impact US oil/ gas production and refining than occurred with the 2005 storms, and yet another large spike in the prices of refined products, not to mention a repeat of the chaotic debacle of the attempted evacuation of Houston prior to Rita’s arrival.
Although AccuWeather shows the highest strike probabilities along the Atlantic coast this year, the fact that so much of the coast is rather far north means (I think) that the chances of a major hurricane making landfall there would have to be somewhat less than for the Gulf region. A Northeastern strike would likely cause massive flooding (as has happened a couple times per decade for the past thirty or forty years) but would not have the effect on energy supplies that another major upper Gulf Coast storm would have.
Another cumulative effect of the high number of recent damaging storms is likely to be that it is going to be much more difficult to insure coastal properties, thus putting a brake on the rapid development of the ‘Redneck Riviera’. Today’s Houston Chronicle happened to run an article mentioning that one of the major insurance companies is dropping its coverage against high wind in just about every county facing the Gulf; I presume that property owners will have to choose much more expensive options or do without.
Lastly, I presume that another direct hit on New Orleans, coupled with a second levee breach in as many years, would pretty much end the viability of that city as a poulation center.
Don’t think that your hurricane scenario isn’t being thought through, and then some. I’m on a national incident team (only 17 in the entire country) and at our annual team refresher earlier this month this came up. We had experts from the National Weather Service go through the 2006 outlook and it matches what Accuweather is predicting. More importantly, the summer fire season could be a banner year this year. (For the first time in a long time we having our travel authorizations – to go anywhere – completed, except for dates and locations to be filled in at the last moment.)
The best guess opinion? Prepare for a Perfect Storm of trouble. Practically anything hitting the Gulf Coast will be devastating. Any heavy storms hitting the East Coast will have widespread economic issues.
Finally, we talked about avian bird flu. It will hit later this summer and fall. Whether it mutates is the $64,000 question. We were told to start now stocking up with a 14-21 day food and water supply at home for everyone in the family.
Interesting. When you say “perfect storm” do you mean in reference just to the concurrence of disasters in 2006, or is this dire prediction in some part the result of an already weakened nation being less able to cope with what otherwise might be an “above average year” for natural challenges?
I just moved to Homestead, a small town in southern Dade County, Florida – which bore the brunt of Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and still has not entirely recovered. There are large areas of vacant land within the city limits – which were not vacant before 1992; stuff got blown down, and they haven’t yet been redeveloped.
“Cleaning up” can take a lot longer than you might expect.
Who’d want to live in America, huh? Tornadoes in the grain belt, hurricanes in the Gulf, the East Coast in danger of a tsunami if some island in the Atlantic collapses, earthquakes and volcanoes on the West Coast, and a supervolcano due for an eruption in the middle. Nice place.
Yeah, but you get cheap-ass petrol and AK-47’s. These are things Americans seem to prize very highly.
Oh, and if you happen to be a European, Quartz, La Palma’s collapse would likely screw you almost as much as someon in America. I seem to recall hearing that London would be 1/3 underwater.
The “perfect storm” I refer to means an inability of this country to cope with a multiple of disasters occurring simultaneously. While parts of the whole may function, the interdependency of the parts would interfere sufficiently to cause more harm than good. Following the Columbia Shuttle recovery efforts, FEMA was trained in ICS, the incident command system the federal and state land management agencies use to fight wildland fires. FEMA ignored the training and the Katrina/Rita disasters were worse off because of it.
The population growth patterns of the regions in greatest danger have yet to show much effect from hurricanes. Florida is continuing to grow by leaps and bounds, despite being smashed by eight hurricanes in two years. People weigh to great climate and good economic conditions more highly than the hurricane risk. Of course, no one can tell exactly where the tipping point is in the mind of the average Florida citizen. If they start getting five hurricanes a years, or six, will that be enough to reverse the trend and make people leave the state? Tough to say. You can take a survey, but individual people may not take the issue seriously until their property is actually facing destruction.
