This may be of interest. BBC:
So, Sturgeon is proposing an independence referendum with the proposal to try and stay in the EU/return to it; to an electorate which is now pro-independence and increasingly Euro-skeptical?
Less Stirling Bridge more Culloden.
Wanting a reduction in European powers (I would like more subsidiarityand a narrower interpretation of non economic powers) does not make one a “Eurosceptic” but a thinking rational human being! I want less power at Westminster and Holyrood; that does not make me a "Democratic sceptic.!
YouGov have a good analysis of how the Leave/Remain No/Yes interaction is affecting polling here.
But also, these data are from a survey ending December. A more recent YouGov poll for the Times (non-paywall link) is reporting a 57% majority for staying in the UK - higher than the referendum result. One poll is just one poll, of course, but if that figure is borne out by other polls it will make life very difficult for the SNP.
you seem to have cherry picked an outlier.
9–14 Mar 2017 YouGov/The Times 1,028 37% 48%
8–13 Mar 2017 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,019 43% 48%
24 Feb–6 Mar 2017 Ipsos Mori/STV 1,029 47% 46%
Additionally the poll you chose omits 16-17 year olds who are 70/30 in favour of Independence. Added to any poll should be the differental attrition rates for 65 plus voters over the next couple of years. Tbat age group was 30/70.
I **explicitly **said it was just one poll and shouldn’t be relied on unless other polls backed it up. Spare me the accusations of chicanery.
Luckily, What Scotland Thinks run a poll of polls, which can be found here.
Yes since Jan 17: 43% 43% 44% 41% 47% 37%
No since Jan 17: 51% 45% 51% 44% 46% 48%
Don't Know : 7% 10% 6% 13% 6% 16%
Refused : 0% 3% 0% 2% 1% 0%
The point about 16-17 year-olds is an interesting one, but by definition it’s a much smaller group than 65+. And, keen as I am to build independence on the graves of my parents’ generation, I doubt they’ll die off as fast as you hope.
Accusations of chicanery are definitely worse than accusations of actively wishing that old people will die.
Yes, it’s a heady rush of nostalgia - this is why Hollywood loves remakes.
If “differential attrition rates for 65+ voters over the next couple of years” meant anything other than that the No vote would be eroded by the deaths of the elderly, I will fully and humbly apologise.
Adding in attrition rates and noting theri voting affect as a side effect is different from saying “gee, I hope more old people will die because their deaths will be more than worth it for the votes”. I could also be wrong on that and could be corrected.
No, you’re right. “Hope” was an unfair word to use, and I do apologise wholeheartedly to Lyonessite for doing so.
Perhaps because every rational voter understood that Scots would be either UK Citizens, ‘As you were’, or fully independent Scottish citizens, depending on the outcome.
Ir’s a binary choice.
However, in line with SNP policy I propose this become a permanent fixture: every three years, Scotland can vote whether to stay with the UK, be fully independent, rejoin the UK, leave the EU, join the EU, etc. etc. with all the get all excited, roll on the ground, howl at the moon dementia of nationalist fury; and the grim tedium of politics wonks blogging and issuing economic papers like nobody’s business. It can be like a tri-annual carnival with endless polls and predictions.
The great thing is — according to nationalist logic — no result is ever finally binding: don’t like the result ? Try, try, and try again ! With added tears and accusations of betrayal and hatefulness ! Free whisky in all the pubs ! A Smoke-Free atmosphere ! An Our Wullie & The Broons Scotland Forever !
What is a “Scot”? What is a “Brit”?
Would Billy Connoly and Sean Connery be stripped of their Passports? Michael Gove and Liam Fox? Gordon Ramsay? Peter Capaldi? John Barrowman? Mark Knopfler? Tony Blair? Nicki Campbell? John Leslie? Tom Kitchin? Paul Rankin? Alex Ferguson? Armando Ianucci? Iain Duncan Smith? Yvette Cooper?
No problem. I did not even see it before you apologsed! I could have chosen better words.
Not a lot of point in breaking away then.
They would be ‘stripped’ of their individual passports if they individually choose to belong to a different nation. All their rights and benefits would be administered by the nation they choose to be a citizen of. There is no point in splitting into two adjacent nation-states if the rebels demand to continue as citizens of the state they voluntarily left.
You can definitely keep Iain Duncan Smith, though.
I’ve never suggested that the UK would withdraw British citizenship from the Scots in the event of independence. I very much doubt that they would. I’m not going to provide a cite to the contrary, because there isn’t one (so far as I know); the UK government has not said how it would modify British nationality law in the event of Scottish independence.
I came into this thread to object to the claim that they couldn’t do so because the Convention against Statelessness forbids it (it wouldn’t, so long as Scottish citizenship was conferred on the people concerned, which seems to be the intention) or that past precedent shows that the UK government doesn’t do this (on the contrary, past precedent shows that they generally do).
Again, if past precedents were to be followed, the position would be that Scots people could claim British citizenship on the basis having a parent born in rump UK. While that would include many Scots people, it wouldn’t include them all. And of course UK citizenship acquired in this way would not itself be heritable unless the citizens concerned settled in rump UK and begat their children there.
Which is a huge, giant, enormous red herring. Nobody - except you - has suggested that British citizenship could conceivably be withdrawn from anybody who was not conferred with Scottish citizenship.
Not necessarily. As already pointed out, if past precedents are followed, those whose British citizenship arises out of their connection with Scotland (birth in Scotland/residence in Scotland) would lose British citizenship (and acquire Scots citizenship). To retain British citizenship they’d need to point to a connection with rump UK (a parent born in rump UK; they themselves settled in rump UK; that kind of thing). In that situation they wouldn’t be required to choose between British citizenship and Scottish citizenship; they could have both.
You do not understand jus solis, jus parentis and citizenship in general. Until you find a politican or commentator that thinks your idea will happen, I am finished.
The obvious past precedanrt is Ireland. I am out of this until you produce some evidence for your idea!
:rolleyes:
Scottish futire citozenship would be offered, not ‘conferred’ Accepting it would be voluntary. If not accepted people would retain their British Passports to avoid being made stateless. If tbey did take Scottish citizenship, there is no bar to joint ctizenship and the government would have little way of discovering who had which passport.