I refer you to post 1624
I would like an investigator to confirm one of them to be sure.
He’s confirmed Town, which means he is honest about suspecting you. He might be wrong, or crazy, or whatever, but at least we know he is not Scummy. The opinions of confirmed Town are useful datapoints, if fairly weak ones.
Just before getting stuck in again, has anyone seen **Oredigger77 **recently?
He last posted in the game about 11 days ago. 
I think it pretty unlikely that Drain Bead, Daphne, Alka, and Boozy are all scum (and you can throw Cat in a Suit in there for his post semi-confirming Daphne and Alka based on Jimmy’s two lists, and Freudian Slit since Daphne turned to her first as an alibi).
I’ve also got other reasons to think Alka is town; chiefly, the fact that he went to the mods and got confirmation that scum could day-talk. Which of course could have been a ploy to build town cred; after all, who would be better placed to make the intuitive leap that scum could day-talk than someone who already knew it to be true; but it’s still a move that benefited town.
On Daphne; I think she’s quite likely to be Town, even though I don’t trust Drain Bead (sorry Drain).
I also don’t think anyone should volunteer to be blocked; with the number of roles claimed so far, there can’t be a lot of non-vanilla Town left, and so I think that she should go ahead and block someone off of the unclaimed list, and let us know either late at Night or (since our Night end times have been kind of erratic) the next Day who she blocked, and let the blockee confirm or deny.
At worst she’ll randomly hit our posited Town investigator.
Tom, if you don’t trust Drain Bead, what do you think of her voting for Chronos along with you?
It bugs me somewhat, but:
(1) I don’t think she’s the scummiest person out there, or I’d be voting for her. I can still see a significant possibility she’s a Town player who got duped by Jimmy on turn 1 for obvious reasons.
(2) Even if she is scum, she could be throwing Chronos under the bus.
Basically what it comes down to is that I can’t believe that this is the same Chronos who created all those detailed contingency plans in the SS Insipid mini-game; I shouldn’t have had to explain to him why a strategic vote at the time he voted would have been a good idea. It makes much more sense to me that playing as scum (for the first time) has thrown him off his game than that he’s suddenly become a strategic moron.
Possibly, but a quick shave with occam tells me there are more scum than hypothetical paranoid gun owners for TexCat to hit.
That’s a bit of blow, makes the investigative element of your power very limited. You can only catch scum if they claim a power when they don’t have one.
Another possibility is that the information you receive might be random (alignment, role, role title or nothing), which would be consistant with a drunken indiscretion or a robot malfunction.
I think you should continue blockvestigating vanillas or unknowns at this time.
Chronos did clarify this at the time, when I asked. I couldn’t see a pro-town motive for Boozy’s soft claim either.
The biggest problem I have with Chronos right now, is that he’s stated he likes to work with “objective data”, but he was opposed to my data gathering/bet hedging approach to Daphne’s claim. To my mind, this is inconsistant with his “wait-and-see” stance on Peeker. Doc claims are very difficult to test.
Also, he stated a major reason he didn’t believe Daphne’s claim was due to the colour, and that “robots wouldn’t get drunk”. That was a pretty reasonable assumption, but I pointed out alcohol might cause a robot to malfunction, and he went back to voting for Daphne despite that.
On analysing Jimmy, I give slightly more credence than usual to theories based on Jimmy’s play, as his death was pretty unexpected and he was playing a superficially pro-town game (pretty sensible, as he had an important role to protect). However, bear in mind distancing is a very common scum tactic. It would have been foolish for Jimmy to assume he wouldn’t flip at some point during the game, and his play would be looked at.
The leader vote is proving more useful than I’d anticipated from an information-gathering point of view.
@Guiri, OneAndOnly, Tiltawhirl - Why do you think Tom is more likely to be town than Boozahol? While I appreciate the effort Tom has put in with his analysis posts, and the notes Chronos gave at the beginning of day 2, that only demonstrates their motivation, not their alignment. What are your arguments for thinking Tom is town? (I’d ask Gryff as well, but he is confirmed town as far as I’m concerned).
Boozy clearly hadn’t checked the whole thread before posting or missed pedescibe’s announcement (which wasn’t exactly in 100 foot-high letters of fire). How does that tell us anything about his alignment?
I didn’t respond to your “spelling error” theory earlier, because it’s extreamly nitpicky. I mis-read berynium originally, and I was spelling it phonetically (ber-ne-um instead of ber-in-e-um). Frankly, basing any sort of case on my flaky spelling pisses me right off.
That’s 3 very nitpicky points you’ve made (Daphne’s slip, Boozahol’s election of me and my spelling). This is either poor town play or scum motivated.
Note that myself, Boozahol and Gryff were all opposed to the jpei lynch day one once he claimed.
As for “pro-town” motive, the company of death-dealing robots makes for strange bedfellows. Colour wise, we’ll use any resources or information we have to prevent the screamers from leaving the planet.
Because I had a roughly 50% chance of catching scum, and if not I could confirm a townie, without exposing them any more than they were already. I could also support Gryff’s claim, and confirm him if we both survivied the night. If I’d been more patient, there was a chance that scum might out themselves by trying to join the shiny club. I had to weigh that up against the danger I’d be killed before I could disclose my info, the shiny club is a bit like a weak but infiltrated masonry. I also didn’t like where town was at that point, the voting was very fragmented and we were close to lynching a claimed investigative role. With a game this size, a compulsive vig or an SK is a real possibility, which makes the blocking aspect to Daphne’s role potentially more valuable to town.
I collected from Boozahol night one, because all the scum would know about the berynium, as well as the 3 town roles. If Boozahol didn’t have any, he must have been scum.
@Guiri - Why are you so concerned about the unlikely possbility of me and Boozahol being scum together?
Scum have a strong motive for churning up unlikely possibilites, as it makes noise and gives the illusion of participation while giving town no useful info. I’d be fairly relaxed about lynching Guiri toDay.
I’m re-assessing Daphne’s claim in the light of the most recent info. I’ll break it down point by point:
- Unless Drain Bead is lying, there are two blockers in the game.
- Drain Bead probably isn’t lying, as she would only do so if she is scum, and it would be risky to do so.
- Daphne probably does have the powers she claims, or at least the blocking aspect. If she is town, she wouldn’t lie. If she is scum, lying about this exposes her. If another scum had her power, if they flip she would no longer be able to perform her blocks. The investigative portion could be invented, as it doesn’t force Daphne to give town useful info.
- Daphne probably did block FS night one, as no-one else claimed they were at a bar. This is the strongest point in favour of Daphne being town as far as I’m concerned. I can see town motivation for blockvestigating FS, but not a strong scum motive.
- Daphne’s claimed power isn’t very useful to town, but would be very useful for scum. Colour wise, it’s a slightly better fit for Daphne to be scum than town.
- 2 scum role-blockers seems unlikey for game balance reasons, but can’t be ruled out. Role-blocker is normally a very strong role, but if town have a lot of weak power roles, which seems to be the case, it becomes more plausable. If the town roles being blocked are weak, the scum role-blocker isn’t so strong either. Also, it’s possible the door-blocker has a failure rate.
- Daphne flipping town wouldn’t confirm Drain Bead in any way.
On the whole, I think Daphne is more likely to be town than scum.
My elect vote is not a trust list. I don’t think it matters much who is leader at this point in the game. Seeing what they do with it though may provide data points. From a towniness perspective I would have been happy to vote Boozy again, but I would rather someone else be in the seat today.
BTW, Alka, no one has talked about Day’s end. I think a Tuesday DURING THE DAY (US time) vote, for a Wednesday end, makes the most sense.
No offense taken. Honestly, until I flip, nobody should trust me, and I am mildly suspicious of anyone who defends me too much at this point.
I think now, knowing as much as possible that Daphne is Town, I’m going to examine those who jumped on her wagon (that I started, alas) with less-than-stellar reasoning. I should probably be able to get around to doing that this afternoon.
Fair enough, I appreciate your detailed reply.
As far as I can tell, Scum have been playing well so far in this game and we’ve been pretty poor at identifying them. We have 16 players left, 6 of which have a full or partial Town claim. I know I’m town so if I take these claims and mutual-confirmation as good enough for Day 3, I’m left with 9 people in which to find possibly 5 scum and a 3rd party.
Of these 9 we’ve got 1 who’s missing and 4 who have not very active and haven’t left much of a trail to analyze. This leaves me just 4 (Tom, Normal, **Chronos **and AllWalker) people in which to find scumminess so I can’t exclude the possibility that some of the claimers are also scum.
So if it seems I’m nitpicking, I probably am because scum aren’t exactly leaving explicit statements and actions from which we can find them. We can trace vote patterns, expressions of trust and distrust towards other players but also look for inconsistencies and evidence of external knowledge in their posts.
To answer your other question, I placed the ***first *** leader vote on Tom for a few reasons:
- So far in the game he’s been voted by 3 players so an unlikely lynch candidate for toDay
- Not being a likely lynch candidate, I don’t see any motive for him to delay the leader vote
- He’s regularly active and I expect he’ll be around to place the leader vote at a time which is suitable for all
- His summary posts an WoWs usually separate facts from his personal speculation and so are useful (given the 300 sec wait in the search function)
- He’s experienced - 9 players, including you, voted him for leader on Day 1
Alka, I didn’t like your “wait and see” idea on Daphne yesterDay, because at the time, I was pretty well convinced that she was Scum. ToDay, though, with Drain confirming that she was boozed up, I’m left with those five possibilities I mentioned before, none of which seem likely to me. Which basically means that, at this point, I have no clue about Daphne, which makes “wait and see” a good idea.
I would like to see her target someone other than Drain Bead toNight, since targeting the same person again would give no new information about Daphne, and possibly no new information about Drain (maybe how much information is revealed, and what, depends on who’s investigated). I also agree with Tom Scud that nobody should volunteer to be blocked; we still have some power roles (at least the Vig, and probably also a cop, plus the politician if he’s Town) hiding somewhere in the unknown pool, and the Scum finding out yet more of our power roles is probably worse than a 1/N chance of accidentally blocking one of them. Especially since there’s also a chance of blocking a Scum.
While we’re on the subject of Daphne: Daphne, you say you got a result of “unspecified power role” from Freudian Slit. If you had investigated a generic Scum goon, would you have gotten that result? I’ve seen some folks consider goons to be vanilla, but I’ve also seen them considered power roles (since after all, they have the power to talk in secret and to make Night-kills). PM the mods if you’re not sure about this one. The reason I’m wondering is, we probably have more Scum than remaining hidden power roles, so your non-vanilla result on Freudian hopefully indicates that we’re down another Scum.
On to other matters: I think Tom is totally barking up the wrong tree. Not only is he attacking me for voting for the person I thought most likely to be Scum, he himself appears to not be voting for the person he thinks most likely to be Scum. Going back to his post 1594, we have
and then
That really, really doesn’t look to me like he suspects me more than Drain, and yet here he is voting for me, not her. Is this a “policy vote”? I’m given to understand that those are bad (at least, I’ve been criticized for my Day 1 votes being “policy votes”). I can’t understand why Tom is making his inconsistencies this obvious, but I can’t see any Town motivation for voting for someone you don’t think is most likely to be Scum. Therefore, I will
Vote Tom Scud
I also don’t like Drain’s vote on me (seriously, who likes votes on themselves from anyone?), but she’s at least being consistent on it: She’s never said that she considers me at all confirmed, and frankly, I agree with her: Jimmy was Scum, and therefore we don’t know what the motivation was for anything he did. Drain has also mischaracterized my post about Daphne this Morning (and I would ask you, Drain, which of those five possibilities you think is correct, or if I missed some other possibility), but I suppose I can see that since Drain has more information about Daphne than the rest of us (after all, the rest of us can’t be certain she’s telling the truth), it’s reasonable for her to be a bit touchy on the subject.
I’m really sorry about my absence. I went on vacation on my way to moving to Texas without knowing that my parents had canceled their internet so I was stuck. I’m back to work now and will be back to posting. I’ve read through what I missed and I’m caught up.
I’ll volunteer for this we seem to have a mini masonry with the shiny pals and I think creating a separate group might help to shrink the chances so one of them being a scum ploy. I can live with whatever powers I might have for a Night of good drinking.
Right now I’m suspicious of Chronos normally he is much more analytical then he has been so far, making lists and his program. It seems he has mainly been shooting down ideas rather then hunting for patterns. I’m going to do a reread on him this afternoon to be sure before I vote.
Again sorry for the disappearing act.
OMGIS! Chronos, here’s a repost of what I said in response to the exact same question earlier.
I feel that we should elect UNconfirmed players to the leader position. The exercise of the Leader’s power to control end of Day is important, public, and objective information. Whether the Leader plays pro-town or anti-town is one of the best indicators of scuminess we have in this game.
FWIW, while I believe Boozy is a well confirmed as town as anyone else, his actions as Leader were very anti-town and an important factor in Thing Fish’s mislynch. I realize that keeping people guessing is his style of play, but he did not keep town well informed of his intentions beforehand. Casting his vote at his own convenience created a situation in which there were not enough players active at end of Day to have a meaningful assessment TF’s role claim.
NETA: I have few reasons to believe Tom Scud is Town.
I think it’s a little bit of 1 and 2, most likely. Someone else’s suggestion of “you gave _____ drink after drink but they never seemed to get drunk” is probably what she’ll get if she blocks a Screamer, which fits into the color even though it doesn’t seem to make sense at first glance. But I think that she’s essentially a cop with a drawback. We probably have another limited cop out there too, which would make sense given the fact that we had two limited docs. Annoying as hell in balancing role claim truthfulness, because it gives the Scum hiding places that they wouldn’t ordinarily have.
And as for Daphne’s use of her powers from here on out, I think she should focus on the pool of unknowns. At this point, the chances of her hitting a Town power role in the unclaimed masses has to be pretty low–I think about the only ones we haven’t uncovered at this point are the Vig, if we have one, and another investigative-type.
I don’t think Chronos is Scum. The risk/reward on the Lie Detector thing is all wrong for that. I do think he is likely to be third party. (And if he is, very probably a SK, given he argued recently we likely did not have one.)
vote: Chronos
The reasons, in no particular order:
– A general pattern of placing votes for “single post”/opportunistic, rather than “big picture”/analyzed reasons. OAOW and Boozy were voted for their soft claims. Tom Scud for the timing of a post and the speculation in it. Daphne for the content of her “claim” post and those immediately following. The votes on Day Two are distinctly less avoidant of bandwagons than those from Day One, but the lack of analysis-driven votes continues, and I would never have expected that of Chronos going in to this game.
– Questioning the value of discussing what Jimmy might have been up to on Day One. This is the only point that makes me think I might be wrong about Chronos not being Scum, though it fits just as well for a third party worried the game will get out of balance too fast if the right conclusions are drawn from what Jimmy did. I don’t see a good Town motive for questioning the value of such discussions.
– Refusal to vote strategically to spare Thing Fish, despite all of the following being true:
: the more strategic vote is inactive, hence very little loss to Town if a mislynch
: the more strategic vote is somewhat linked to Daphne anyway
: the case against Thing Fish is “weak”
: Thing Fish claims to be a type of doctor; Chronos claims to believe there are probably not two; and Chronos claims to be suspicious of peeker, the other doctor claim
That last point alone should have served to convince Chronos that Thing Fish was sufficiently likely to be Town to be worth trying to save rather than wasting a vote on Daphne, if he was being honest about his motivations.
Finally, a pattern of suspecting or pressuring claimed roles in rough proportion to how dangerous they would be to a SK.
– Daphne, role-blocker/investigator, gets a pair of votes and continued suspicion today for what I think are questionably logical reasons.
– peeker, “backup Doc”, gets consistently voiced suspicion
– Thing Fish, bodyguard/Doc, gets left on the hook at end of Day despite a “weak” case and suspicion of the other Doc claim
– Boozy and his magic bag (TM peeker) get a throwaway vote on Day One and voiced suspicion right up until Alka’s claim cuts off most of the rationale
– OAOW, the nature of whose role remains completely unknown, gets a throwaway vote Day One and continued prodding up to the present
– gryff and his questionably-useful items get no pressure post-claim despite the claim remaining incomplete
– Alka, whose danger to Scum/3rd parties appears to have been expended, gets no pressure at all despite there being ample opening for a suspicious player to do so
– Jpei similarly got no pressure
– Drain Bead has gotten no pressure