SDMB 2012 NFL Mock Draft!!!

The Game Room
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Or the Texans, who need a vertical threat in the worst way. And with Wright off the board, he seems to be the closest that qualifies, until you get down to all-speed guys like, e.g. T.Y. Hilton. Maybe they look at Marvin Jones instead in the 2nd?

He does drop an F-ton of balls, which is worrying. This might have something to do with his lack of usage compared to Thomas. Still, who would you rather draft here at the bottom of the 1st for WR #2? Criner? Jones? Tommy Streeter? (If they go OLB in the 1st, or take Fleener, I’d expect them to grab Jones or Streeter in the 2nd or 3rd.) Especially since this is a position they absolutely have to address in the draft, right now. They simply cannot go into next year with a gimpy-ish old Andre Johnson, Jones, and Kevin Walter, and expect to be a Super Bowl contender. I’m not thrilled with what I’ve read about Randle, Sanu, or Jeffrey, particularly if you need a speedy threat.

I guess they could extend Antonio Smith, Matt Schaub, sign Duane Brown (LOL!), and that might free up enough $$$, along with cutting Jones, to take a run at Mike Wallace. Perhaps that would be a better use of their 1st rounder?

Vincent Jackson, Victor Cruz, Antonio Brown, and Marques Colston say, “Hi.” Dwayne Bowe too, I guess, although he really lit it up his senior year. Jackson was productive for his school, but it was Northern Colorado, for cryin’ out loud. Antonio Brown did well, in the MAC. What are we calling ‘productive’?

It’s sort of the inverse of evaluating a system QB with gaudy stats like a Timmy Chang, Colt Brennan, or whomever Texas Tech spit out under Mike Leach: how much of a correction should we apply to a wide receiver who just isn’t going to get that many targets in a triple option system? No doubt I’d be happier drafting him in the 3rd or later than the first, but he just isn’t going to make it that far.

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For every JPP, there are three Vernon Gholston, Heyward Bey, or Donnie Avery’s out there waiting to fail. The fact is, by and large, the best players in the NFL were productive in college. There are exceptions of course (JPP and Jimmy Graham for example), but, by and large, for every one of those, there are a bunch who failed.

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  1. Cleveland Browns
    Doug Martin
    RB, Boise State

Came down to a WR or RB here - I simply need offensive playmakers. WR probably represents the better marginal value, as there’s a chance someone like Lamar Miller or LaMichael James will be available in round 3, whereas I should take someone out of Randle, Sanu, Jeffery, etc. here.

But I really like Doug Martin’s change of direction ability, and the Browns have scraps at RB (unless Hardesty is better with a full year to recover from ACL surgery), and, well, the Browns have a better chance of having a productive running game than passing game with McCoy back there for another year. Which reminds me - Weeden is a possibility here, but I’m not so enthralled with him as to spend a pick this high on an AARP quarterback. Might as well just throw 2012 away and grab a QB next year.

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That’s certainly true, however that’s no reason to not take a shot on those guys. When you’re in a strong position, like the Giants, Saints and now Texans are, you probably should swing for the fences on occasion. Truly elite players are tough to come by. There’s a bunch of productive NCAA players they could take there, but not many of them are clearly better than what a team can get on the FA market.

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Had two seasons of 65+ catches and 1300+ yards in college.

2 50+ catches, and one 1000+ yards at U Mass.

Three 90+, 900 yard season

50+ catches, 910 yards in one season, then 70+ catches, 975 yards in his last.

All of those guys had more catches in one year than Hill did in his entire career.

Great WR, by and large, don’t just magically appear in the NFL. Stephen Hill may be one of the rare ones who succeed despite a lack of actual production at the college level, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

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I agree, it’s perfectly fine to take a chance like that on occasion, but, by and large, not in the first round. Hell, the Texans did the exact same thing a few years ago and grabbed a tall guy with nice speed and great athleticism named Jacoby Jones. At least they drafted him in the third round and not the first.

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Most of those guys racked those stats up playing against the Sisters of Mercy, Hamlet. And I’m pretty sure they weren’t doing it out of the triple option. But you’re right, they were productive against the opponents that were on their schedule. I wonder how they did if/when they played against quality opponents? (Serious question: I don’t have their game logs easily sortable in front of me.)

Criticize Hill for being silly enough to go play WR for a team that runs the triple option, but do you think he’d run up similar numbers playing against that kind of competition? As for Jones’s great athleticism, here are his combine results. They don’t scream Bo Jackson to me. Pretty middle of the pack or worse, for WR. (Though Yamon Figurs really set the world on fire in the NFL, didn’t he?) Aside, did they change the surface or timing for WR for this year’s combine? 4.50 this year would be noteworthy, whereas when he ran it, it looked middle of the road according to their listed distribution.

To badly paraphrase Giselle, he can’t throw the ball to himself and catch it. Despite his abysmal catch rate (52.0% from the link, 28 catches on 54 targets.), he couldn’t have 50+ catches (which is the standard, judging by your stats for Cruz and Colston) if he’s only targeted 54 times. I’ve no idea whether he’s the 2nd calling of Rickey Dudley—body like a Greek statue, with hands to match—and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was.

It’s like Omni wrote: he’s got the potential to be a world-beater and he won’t last to the bottom of the 2nd. If they want him, they’ve got to grab him here. Perhaps they’ll be more risk averse and grab Mercilus here, and Marvin Jones/Sanu/Randle in the 2nd?

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The spreadsheet listing catch data for CFB receivers 2005-2011 may be found here. Enjoy.

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I’m not going to track all that down. I think we can agree that it is likely that there are very, very good WR who played and were productive, against creampuffs.

Likely, seeing as how he had 37% of his yardage this entire year against Western Carolina and Middle Tennessee. If he were being drafted to play in DII, I’d be all over him as a first rounder.

His production certainly suffered because of the offense he played in. But, like with DeMaryius Thomas, if he was worth a first round pick, I think Paul Johnson would have found a way to get him the ball more.

That’s the problem with falling in love with a guy. If you say “We have to have Stephen Hill, then, yes, you’ve got to grab him here”. Hell, if you “have to have Stephen Hill”, you might have to give up a first rounder next year to trade up to get him to make sure. I just don’t think deciding you “have to have” a guy is the best strategy for drafting in the NFL.

Hill has more upside than those guys, but I like Sanu to be a dependable guy who can run the underneath routes and break a few tackles. I think a guy like that could be a nice compliment to Andre Johnson. But my point is there are guys with Hill’s upside (AJ Jenkins maybe. Chris Givens? Brian Quick? My guy Dale Moss) who can be found later in the draft

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  1. Jacksonville
    Chandler Jones
    DE, Illinois

Really tempted to go offense again, but Jacksonville has so many needs, and pass rush is one of them. Jones seems like the best 4-3 DE left, and one of the BPA according to the list I’m working off of.

Thought about a CB, but they’ll have to hope Mathis can came back from ACL.

No 3rd round pick.

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I think it would. They need to recognize where they are in the success cycle, and try to win now.

Wow, Andre Johnson, Mike Wallace, Arian Foster. What a combo that would be.

That’s some really interesting data; has anyone done anything with it analysis-wise?

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39. St. Louis Rams
David Wilson
RB, Virginia Tech

The Rams have been looking for someone to backup Jackson for years. He will be able to provide depth when Jackson enevitably gets injured, and to replace him when he is through. The Rams also need OLB help, but it is a deeper position this year, and someone will be there later.

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40. Carolina Panthers
Levonte David
OLB, Nebraska

Carolina needs impact players on defense, guys who can disrupt the offense and break up plays. Fletcher Cox fits that perfectly from the inside, and David can do that from the outside backer spot. I think he’d settle in nicely as a WLB.

I think Carolina would really like a CB here, but the top options were snagged. There seems to be a bit of a tier drop off after Jenkins. They’ll stay on defense here, though.

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Just fixing this.

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The Bills have a few clear cut needs at OT, WR and DB. They addressed the OT position with their 1st round pick and are unlikely to go back there in the 2nd round. The DB position has just suffered a run with the top CB and S prospects coming off the board and leaving a pretty big fall down to the next tier. That leaves WR as the next area to address and I think it’s also the position that represents the best value here. The question is which WR to draft, WR is a deep position in this year and there’s probably 3 or 4 guys left on the board who might represent the top candidate for the Bills. The Bills are going to need to focus on finding a guy who can compliment Stevie Johnson’s deep threat ability and who can present matchup problem for the defenses. Fitzpatrick struggled when teams were able to mug their WRs so getting someone who can separate is key. They’ve got Size already in David Nelson but he wasn’t always able to leverage that, especially in the redzone. The Bills are in win now mode so drafting a guy who’s a long term project may not make sense. Of the available choices I think this guy represents the best combination of NFL readiness, explosiveness and versatility.

41. Buffalo Bills
A.J. Jenkins
WR, Illinois

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Just giving a sense of how wacky mocks can be: I did a multi-user mock draft on reddit last week, and I traded up in the fourth round to grab Jenkins. (I was also able to take David Wilson at #61.)

I like A.J. Jenkins, but not more than Rueben Randle, Greg Childs, or Marvin Jones.

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I was comparing him against Jeffery, Quick, Randle and Sanu and the first 3 are projects with prototypical size/speed and the latter is a limited player with strong fundamentals and experience. Personally, I don’t think Childs or Jones can carry Jenkins’ jock. For some teams I think Randle would be the clear choice, but he disappointed me somewhat late in the season at LSU and I suspect he lacks instincts for the position that were masked by the excuse of a bad QB. Basically everything Hamlet feels about Hill I feel about Randle. Jenkins is rocketing up draft boards and I’d be shocked if he makes it even to the 3rd round at this point.

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  1. Tennessee Titans
    Reuben Randle
    WR, [COLOR=“Purple”] LSU[/COLOR]
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Just about out of edit window from fiddling with the format. After trading down from the first round, and watching a couple of guys I was hoping would slip to this spot come off the board, I went with a work in progress. Tall, athletic receiver with decent hands.

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I like to think of the draft as a whole, not just grabbing guy A in the first round, guy B in the second, etc. I think good teams try to balance things during the draft. They balance value, needs, what they did earlier, and, in this case, risks. If a team takes a big risk in the first round, I think they need to balance it out with guys who are less likely to bust in the later rounds. If a team loses draft picks to go up and grab a guy they, they increase their need to hit in the later rounds.

With that in mind, I think I tied my own hands a bit here by taking Quinton Coples in the first round. The guy I would normally like to take here is too much like Coples, high upside, great measureables, but also some big risk. And hell they even played for the same team. I was really thinking about grabbing Zach Brown here.

The Seahawks are desperate to rebuild their linebacking corp, and Brown has outstanding speed to go sideline to sideline. He’s just not nearly ready enough to start in the NFL and his instincts are questionable at best. I myself aren’t sold on him, but of the remaining guys at the linebacker position, he’s the one who could be something great. I just don’t think he’s sure enough to take another huge risk in the second round after going with Coples in the first. Other linebackers can be found later in the draft.

So, who should the Seahawks draft? I look at the clump of Best Players Available and I don’t really see anyone who excites me. Kendall Reyes would be a solid, high character guy, to put on that D Line with Coples and wreck some havoc. Wheedon would be worth a draft pick here, but he’d be a horrible fit for the Seahawks who signed Matt Flynn and still has Tavaris. Kevin Zeitler is a solid guard who I think you can just plug in and see what he can do, but guards aren’t a priority for me in the second round. And I love what Mohammed Sanu could bring to the Seahawks (he’s a solid, dependable, big, strong guy who can make yards after the catch, but won’t burn by anyone; which might be a nice compliment to Sidney Rice/Golden Tate/Doug Baldwin), but I don’t think he’s special enough to make a second round pick. I’d hope I get him in the third (or Juron Criner). The last guy I’d consider is Lamar Miller, who I think has the potential to be a very good running back in the NFL, but isn’t the most … bright … guys on the planet. He could be special though.

So, I’ve talked myself into, and out of, almost every prospect I could take here. But I have to pull the trigger on someone.

  1. Seattle Seahawks

Kendall Reyes, DT, University of Connecticut

[sub]If we don’t get to the later rounds, the Seahawks will be taking at least 2 linebackers in their next 4 picks.[/sub]