First, I looked at all-time results by seed in the first round of the tournament at this site. For instance, the 4th seed beats the 13th seed 79% of the time. I conducted my simulation using percentages that were fairly similar to these all-time results.
Each game was determined by two rolls of a single die: one roll per team. In games with two teams that are the same seed or only one seed apart (e.g., a #1 vs. #1 matchup), the team that got the higher dice roll advanced. In case of a tie, I rerolled for each team. For matchups of a much higher seed vs. a much lower seed (e.g., #2 vs. #15), the 15th seed would need a much better dice roll than the 2nd seed in order to advance. Here was my magic formula:
-Two teams whose seeds are identical or differ by one: higher dice roll advances; tie requires reroll
-Two teams whose seeds are 2 or 3 apart (e.g., #1 vs. #4): lower seed needs higher dice roll to advance; tied dice roll results in the higher seed advancing
-Two teams whose seeds are 4 or 5 apart: lower seed needs to win dice roll by two; if lower seed wins dice roll by one, then I reroll
-Seeds 6 or 7 apart: lower seed needs to win dice roll by two; if lower seed wins dice roll by only one, the higher seed advances
-Seeds 8 or 9 apart: lower seed needs to win dice roll by three; if lower seed wins dice roll by exactly two, then I reroll
-Seeds 10 or 11 apart: lower seed needs to win dice roll by three; if lower seed wins dice roll by only two, then higher seed advances
-Seeds 12 or 13 apart: lower seed needs to win dice roll by four; if lower seed wins dice roll by only three, then higher seed advances
-Seeds 14 or 15 apart: lower seed needs to win dice roll by 5 (i.e., roll a 6 vs. a 1) AND THEN win a second dice roll
One other important set of rules: if the dice said that Florida lost in any round, I fired the dice and replaced them with new dice. If the dice allowed FSU to advance to the Sweet 16 or any round beyond, I fired the dice and replaced them with new dice. Finally, if the dice allowed fuckass colleges Oral Roberts or Jerry Falwell U. (Liberty) to advance, I fired the dice and replaced them with new dice. I ended up needing six dice for my simulation.