Are we doing a Tournament Challenge on ESPN.com like in past years? I’m hankering to pick my Florida Gators as national champions again! (Seriously, I don’t have great expectations for them this year. I’m just amazed that, given their #7 seed, there were approximately 320 Division I teams that were worse than Florida this year.)
I’m down. I’ve been checking the game room all day waiting for this thread to pop up.
We also have to consider the possibility that, even if the Appalachian States and Drexels of the world are very unlikely to advance by beating their opponents, they may advance by default if a team has to withdraw due to covid-19 results. Imagine if Morehead State made the sweet 16 without even playing a game!
I’d be up for it, I’ve watched more college basketball this year than I have in a long time.
Oh, and it definitely won’t be the Florida Gators, I think you may have been referring to the Florida State Seminoles!
It would be a good year for Gonzaga to go wire-to-wire and tie the Hoosier and San Fran teams. That way all the Gonzaga naysayers can keep complaining about how it doesn’t really count because of Covid.
In addition to the bracket that I will create on my own (with the Gators certain to be champs), I just conducted a simulation of the tournament using dice. I will fill out another bracket showing the results of this dice game. Dice game bracket and methodology are coming soon!
Spoiler: Gonzaga lost in a shocking upset in the sweet 16 round in my dice tournament.
It seems that the old login information still works for this year’s ESPN tournament challenge, and a couple participants have already filled out a bracket. I’ll fill mine out later today or tomorrow.
Group name: SDMB Bracketeers
Password: cecil123
If no one objects, I’ll post this to the Straight Dope Facebook page tomorrow.
I’m in. I have Michigan winning. I have literally no rooting interest in this tournament, with Indiana, Kent State, and Butler not participating.
I have no objection.
I just created my brackets: one with my own personal picks and one that lists the results of my dice simulation of the tournament. I know you’re all dying to know how I conducted the dice tournament, so here goes:
First, I looked at all-time results by seed in the first round of the tournament at this site. For instance, the 4th seed beats the 13th seed 79% of the time. I conducted my simulation using percentages that were fairly similar to these all-time results.
Each game was determined by two rolls of a single die: one roll per team. In games with two teams that are the same seed or only one seed apart (e.g., a #1 vs. #1 matchup), the team that got the higher dice roll advanced. In case of a tie, I rerolled for each team. For matchups of a much higher seed vs. a much lower seed (e.g., #2 vs. #15), the 15th seed would need a much better dice roll than the 2nd seed in order to advance. Here was my magic formula:
-Two teams whose seeds are identical or differ by one: higher dice roll advances; tie requires reroll
-Two teams whose seeds are 2 or 3 apart (e.g., #1 vs. #4): lower seed needs higher dice roll to advance; tied dice roll results in the higher seed advancing
-Two teams whose seeds are 4 or 5 apart: lower seed needs to win dice roll by two; if lower seed wins dice roll by one, then I reroll
-Seeds 6 or 7 apart: lower seed needs to win dice roll by two; if lower seed wins dice roll by only one, the higher seed advances
-Seeds 8 or 9 apart: lower seed needs to win dice roll by three; if lower seed wins dice roll by exactly two, then I reroll
-Seeds 10 or 11 apart: lower seed needs to win dice roll by three; if lower seed wins dice roll by only two, then higher seed advances
-Seeds 12 or 13 apart: lower seed needs to win dice roll by four; if lower seed wins dice roll by only three, then higher seed advances
-Seeds 14 or 15 apart: lower seed needs to win dice roll by 5 (i.e., roll a 6 vs. a 1) AND THEN win a second dice roll
One other important set of rules: if the dice said that Florida lost in any round, I fired the dice and replaced them with new dice. If the dice allowed FSU to advance to the Sweet 16 or any round beyond, I fired the dice and replaced them with new dice. Finally, if the dice allowed fuckass colleges Oral Roberts or Jerry Falwell U. (Liberty) to advance, I fired the dice and replaced them with new dice. I ended up needing six dice for my simulation.
Who’s in for some side action on which teams lose due to COVID? I’d peg the O/U for disqualified teams at 2.
I’m in for another year!
I’m “ThatBuckyGuy” there…
I’ll take the under. We may get one but I think the odds favor 0.
Fucking Oral Roberts. I wish the Cinderella hadn’t been a bunch of intolerant jerks.
But as a Michigan fan, I wasn’t exactly rooting for Ohio State either.
Me either, because now the Gators have a much easier path to the Sweet 16 (assuming they don’t choke against those ORU assholes).
In other news, my dice haven’t turned out to be the wise oracles that I thought they would be.
Yeah, I know how people love to pull for the underdog, but I couldn’t root for ORU. And I’m completed busted in my brackets.
Was weird to root for Florida as an FSU alum. But, I’ve got a particular distaste for Virginia Tech from the Vick years plus one of their low level employees (long long story)
The website will let you fill out a maximum of 25 brackets, and I take full advantage every year. I do my best to give most of the double-digit seeds at least one occasion where they pull off the gloriously improbable victory. (I don’t bother picking any No. 16 seeds to win, which is a little ironic given that I live in Charlottesville, home of the only No. 1 seed in the history of the men’s tournament to eat it in the first round, the University of Virginia.) I’m almost guaranteed to be able to shrug off any bracket-buster. So, naturally, the one No. 15 seed that I left for dead in each one of my brackets, Oral Roberts, somehow manages to actually beat the odds.
I know next to nothing about college basketball, so for the bracket at work I usually pick the higher seeded team except I throw a few random upsets in there. After all, if the lower ranked team wins, isn’t it really the fault of the seeding committee? 
I understand (again, not knowing much so this could be wrong) that it was harder this year with less cross conference games to accurately seed teams.
Brian
Got the first one. VCU had to forfeit their game tonight against Oregon. Sucks for their players and coaches.