I’d love to tell you my grand plan for drafting this year, but I didn’t have one. I was researching on the fly, adding players to my queue, and watching them get snatched 2-3 before me. I was also working, so the draft wasn’t getting my full concentration (although it was getting more concentration than my work could spare).
How would you rate the RB tandems?
Does anyone regularly watch Miami games?
I’ve been looking into Ronnie Brown a bit. He’s generally taken in the early to mid second round, so there has to be something that people see in him - or is everyone just copycatting everyone else?
I notice he only had 241 carries last year, at a 4.2 average, with 5 TDs. The number of carries is low for a healthy, feature back, but a 4.2 average is very respectable. Does he underperform on the field, did he share too many carries, was the offense so inept that it just didn’t have that many plays and was passing to catch up, or what?
I’m just wondering that perhaps in the new offense under Cameron he’ll get significantly more touches per year, and if he’s performing well enough when he has the chance, he has a good chance to improve from last year.
I’d still be willing to trade him, though, if someone with a different second-tier back or something else of interest wants to look over my roster and see if you find a trade appealing.
I’m still trying to trade for Winslow, but it’s not looking good. We both have too few starting quality receivers and too many late round running backs with potential - too similar in our strengths and weaknesses.
His high draft pick status coupled with his yahoo ranking is what makes people draft him too high.
In his rookie year he didn’t even crack 1000 yards, but he was splitting carries with Weedy McSmokesalot, so you could understand the low production. Last year, however, he wasn’t splitting carries with anyone and he totalled 1008 yards. Pathetic.
Look at his individual game stats and think about how much I wanted to puke each week with him as my primary back in an efficiency league last year:
2006
+----------+-------------+--------+----+
| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |
+----------+-------------+--------+----+
| 1 pit | 15 30 | 32 | 2 |
| 2 buf | 15 70 | 52 | 0 |
| 3 ten | 26 90 | 10 | 0 |
| 4 hou | 12 49 | 62 | 0 |
| 5 nwe | 17 39 | -3 | 1 |
| 6 nyj | 22 127 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 gnb | 15 59 | 63 | 0 |
| 9 chi | 29 157 | 33 | 0 |
| 10 kan | 25 89 | -3 | 1 |
| 11 min | 11 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 det | 15 68 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 nyj | 18 110 | 15 | 0 |
| 17 ind | 21 115 | 10 | 0 |
+----------+-------------+--------+----+
| TOTAL | 241 1008 | 276 | 5 |
+----------+-------------+--------+----+
Opening day he ran for a paltry 30 yards on 15 carries, negating the two TDs due to efficiency penalties. And then only scored three measely touchdowns the entire rest of the season!
Healthy is not a word to be used in the same sentence as Brown. He missed 4 games in his first ever year as a franchise back. (Even in college he split carries with Cadillac Williams. Poor Brandon Jacobs had to transfer outta there to get any carries at all.)
How do you guys feel about the W/R slot, by the way? Do you plan to always use an RB with it, or are you willing to put a receiver in there based on matchup?
Hard to rank straight up, but I’ll try. I’m limited on time so here’s my preliminary ranks.
1- I’d have to say The Concussions. Gore and T. Jones is really strong.
1a- Myself. I’m being as objective as I can, but I don’t see anyone else with the capability to score as Westbrook and Henry can. Not the most proven tandem, and very risky, but the upside is higher than almost everyone.
3- Chitwood. S. Jackson alone makes up for most of the ranking, but James is a starting RB on a high powered offense.
Gets tougher here, most teams have a serious weakness here.
4- New York Fanboys. If Bush can run any better than last year, Ellis has two legitimate first rounders. I can say that only about my team
5- I would go with SenorBeef here. Brown only has to improve a little to remove all the question marks here.
6- Frosted_Lightning. R. Johnson is so consistently great that it brings this group into the top half. I think Brandon Jacobs is in for a huge year. I’ve seen him literally bulldoze my Eagles defense many times. I’m afraid of him.
7- Isotopes- I really like Maroney and I think he’s due for a big year, but I think all the weapons detract from him a little bit. Also, I’m very wary of any RB with a knee or shoulder problem. Especially one that plays on special teams. I give even money that he misses 2-5 games this season. There’s no way Jones-Drew gets that many points this season, but he also won’t drop too far. Sadly there’s a bit of bias here, I don’t trust Maroney and Jones-Drew is due for a let down, so that’s why this tandem doesn’t rank higher to me.
8- No Use For a Name- Alexander can be a stud, but he’s old and coming off an injury-riddled season and he runs behind a bad offensive line. Benson has great potential and it seems hard to screw up his opportunity, but his team hates him and he’s never carried the rock that much in the NFL, a question mark.
8a- Virtually tied with No Use For a Name, Court Jesters. Larry Johnson back to form would bring this higher, but I can’t imagine him playing a full season. Terrible line, terrible offense, and he’s almost GUARANTEED an injury after surpassing the cursed 370 carries plateau.
10-Gridbirds. Yes I rank Tomlinson this low, but not for his lack of trying. I just don’t think Peterson is a capable #2. He isn’t a starter, and even if he DOES start, is Tomlinson and 10 weeks of Peterson splitting carries with Taylor enough to be better than two quality starters? I don’t think so.
11- Tazmanian Devils. This is only half fair as Taz only drafted one real RB. Parker is really good and any other starting RB would have put him a lot higher. Had he drafted, say, Edge, Tax would probably be in the top half or near it. But Norwood is really, really sketchy this season.
12- The Opposites. Sorry dude, but McAllister is sometimes being drafted as a team’s THIRD running back (He’s my third in one league that I don’t much care about), and he’s your #1? Foster is in a time-share, and most predict he’ll be behind DeAngelo Williams by Week 6, or on IR. Not a good combo!
But I don’t have a combo…I’ve got 6 backs who I plan on rotating in and out on a weekly basis depending on matchups. What’s the purpose of ranking RB tandems when we have a deep bench and can carry four extra backs if you’ve got a stud QB and TE? Plus I’ve got 3 backs who finished in the top 25 last year.
I’ll ride Foster for a bit, then Jones, Jackson and by the end of year Benson will have lost his job to Peterson and he’ll be running for 100 yards a game. It’s a gamble but I had more fun in this draft then I’ve had in any of my RB/RB drafts.
Doing the opposite is going to work and if not, I’ll send fanball.com an email saying their favourite draft strategy is a piece of crap.
I’m drafting 5th in the 14-man keeper league, and I’d like to know if it’s worth it to take Peyton Manning there instead of Shaun Alexander. Passing TDs are worth the full 6, no PPR, and you can start three RBs.
On the one hand, conventional wisdom dictates that you’re guaranteed to lose if you don’t have two feature backs in a league where you can start three. OTOH, with 6 points per TD Peyton could help pick up the slack.
Of the 14 owners in that league, only Jimmy Chitwood and I are in this league, so I figured this was as good a place as any to ask for opinions.
So who do you think I should pick up:
Peyton Manning
Shaun Alexander
Other (bring the hard sell)
(I may have been infected by Kid_A’s post…)
EDIT: Frank Gore is a keeper, so I might not even get Alexander. Given that, who would you recommend?
Who would your other prospects be at RB and QB in round 2-3? Hard to tell without knowing who you’d be taking later at whatever position you didn’t choose to address first.
That’s understandable, but it doesn’t change anything. Picking based on matchups is mostly an educated crapshoot. Let’s say you happen to be very, very good at determining which of your backs has the best possible matchup. You’re still picking between Foster (likely a backup after week eight), Taylor (likely a backup after week eight), Jones (possibly a backup after week eight), Brandon Jackson (I’ve run better this preseason), and Adrian Peterson (the one everyone has nicknamed “The Crappy One”).
The reason it’s important to have a strong tandem is in case the matchups don’t exactly work in your favor. If your three to five RBs all happen to go up against upper level run defenses, you’re losing that week That and I’d rather take Shaun Alexander against Pittsburgh than Foster against the worst run defense. For instance, last season St. Louis had the second worst run defense by yards per game. Atlanta was #9. DeShaun Foster against those two? 6pts and 10pts respectively. Go Figure.
Wanted to reiterate that the people in our league might be interested in the auction league that we’re trying to get worked out. Draft is probably going to be this Wednesday. Post if you’re interested.
You can go through and look at the matchups and click the “vote” button under the team you think will win. It’s ultimately useless but a fun novelty feature and I encourage people to use it. Before the game, it’ll say X out of Y people voted for this team and then after the game it’ll show who the people who voted for each were. That way you can rub your unexpected victory in the face of your doubters. Not a big deal, but it’d be cool if people used that feature.
Already, my week one QB is out. Can I change my team name to Lions?
Who are you talking about? Rivers or Leinart?
Leinart is listed as Out on the week 1 injury report. I thought I’d go with him against SF’s defense instead of Rivers QBing while Chicago is defending.
Crap on a stick. I was going to start him in another league.
I’m trying to find another source besides Yahoo to verify it and I can’t. (nfl.com, si.com, espn.com) Maybe it’s a Yahoo screwup, it wouldn’t be the first in the last 24 hours.
That would be a good thing. I’ll take a Yahoo! screw-up. I tried Fox Sports - no word on there either.
Just in case anyone has a free night, we’re doing the draft tonight at 8pm and we’re sort of a guy short. If you want to join, join the yahoo league
League ID: 669577
Password: cecil
and the info for how to get into the draft is there.
Well, I have been super-busy lately, but I figure I owe you all at least this much before the season starts!
The Concussions (Kiros)
01.04 (004) Frank Gore…(RB-SF)
Between him and Addai for me here - which makes me like the pick of Addai with how far he dropped.
02.09 (021) Thomas Jones…(RB-NYJ)
Easy pick, last of the tier of RBs that I wouldn’t feel too crappy about starting every week. I think he’s primed for a surprisingly good year, and I’m very happy at this point coming out of the first two rounds with those two.
03.04 (028) Torry Holt…(WR-StL)
I probably should have gone with Wayne here, to be a little safer. I think Holt has a bit more upside, but he’s obviously more of a risk with the knee.
04.09 (045) Anquan Boldin…(WR-Ari)
Again, last of his tier of WRs on my sheet. I’m ending up with him in a lot of leagues this year - I think I must have him rated a bit higher than most. I think he’ll be doing pretty good, though.
05.04 (052) Marshawn Lynch…(RB-Buf)
I think he is huge value here, and RB depth is always crucial.
06.09 (069) Alge Crumpler…(TE-Atl)
Lots of TEs were going around here, as I recall. I think even with Harrington as the QB (or maybe especially with him) there’s a lot of upside here.
07.04 (076) Matt Hasselbeck…(QB-Sea)
Highest of the remaining QBs for me. I find that I’m missing the top tier of QBs in almost all of my leagues this year… I go in planning on grabbing whomever is left in round 4, and the top 6 are always gone by round 4. Which has led to me having a lot of very strong teams with very mediocre QBs.
08.09 (093) Michael Turner…(RB-SD)
We have giant benches in this league, and tiny starting rosters - upside pick.
09.04 (100) Darrell Jackson…(WR-SF)
I really like the value here, especially as a backup WR.
10.09 (117) Jake Delhomme…(QB-Car)
Backup QB, pretty standard.
11.04 (124) Mike Furrey…(WR-Det)
Potentially very good value for WR depth.
12.09 (141) Brian Leonard…(RB-StL)
We alternate WR depth with RB reaches!
13.04 (148) Wes Welker…(WR-NE)
Aaaaand more WR depth.
14.09 (165) Oakland…(DEF-Oak)
Defense in the second to last round! Seriously, though Oakland is a bit sleeperish and I have no problem with them.
15.04 (172) Josh Scobee…(K-Jac)
Aaaand kicker in the last round. Who cares, again?
Thanks for the flattery, to all who dispensed it. I’m fairly happy with my draft - I think I might be a little happier with Wayne instead of Holt, but who’s to judge? A lot of it just depends on luck, who gets injured, and who decides to have a career year from here on out. I think I’m positioned pretty well to start the year, though, with no gaping holes - and that’s really all that you can ask for.
-K.
And now for a segment I like to call “steals and reaches” brought to you by Having Too Much Time.
Biggest steals of the draft
5.4 - The Concussions - Marshawn Lynch. He’s a talent on an offense that seems to be improving. He should get the bulk of the carries and shine early on. I see 1000+ 6+ from him.
5.7 Exploding Pancakes - Jamal Lewis. He won’t be setting any records, but on a repaired ankle and behind an improved line, he’ll be pretty good. 1200 yards and 9 TDs or better.
7.4 Concussions - Hasselbeck. Very good quarterback value at this pick.
9.6 Tazmanian Devils - Jerious Norwood. I’m surprised he lasted this long. I suspect he could be this year’s MJD.
12.7 Tazmanian Devils - Donte Stallworth. In a productive offense with Randy Moss to take the best CB off him? I should’ve made this pick before the 12th round.
12.11 Chitwood - Kevin Curits - has a real chance to blossom catching passes from McNabb. Best of the receivers taken around there in the draft.
Biggest reaches
This isn’t meant to be too critical, not trying to insult anyone, just giving my preseason guesses.
2.12 Gridbirds - Adrian Peterson
I like Peterson’s talent, but I think he could’ve been had at least a round later, probably two. I think he’ll do well, but Chester Taylor is a solid running back so you’ve got a clear RBBC situation there.
3.10 The Opposites - Antonio Gates
This is a reach a lot of people tend to make, so it’s not unique. But I think he won’t be so much better than everyone else to justify his draft status. Look for Gonzo and Winslow to put up fairly close numbers taken much later, with Shockey and Davis not that far behind them.
4.1 New York Fanboys - Todd Heap. Taken 3 picks after Gates, he won’t even be a top 3 TE at the end of the year.
4.10 Court Jesters - Philip Rivers - I like rivers this year and I think he’ll be good, but he’s undervalued by most people and probably could’ve been had rounds later.
5.1 Gridbirds Eli Manning - Let’s just say I’m not high on Eli Manning.
6.10 Court Jesters - Anthony Gonzalez. He’s an underrated college player in a prolific offense, but a clear third receiver and usually is a sleeper pick in the 10th round or later.
8.9 Concussions - Michael Turner. Possibly the best backup RB in the league, but definitely won’t be part of a RBBC and will only be worth starting if there’s an injury to Mr. Indestructable. Could be had later.
12.6 Exploding Pancakes - Chris Henry. A mistake pick when I thought I was getting Chris Brown, I’d probably have done better with either of the other Titans RBs here.
Huh. Live scoring is up and running. I wonder if that’s a one game/week promotion to get us hooked or what.