SDMB All-Pro Fantasy Football league

The Game Room
121

Re-evaluating my predraft trade with Ellis Dee.

I gave up #4 10th rounder (#117), 12th rounder (#141)
He gave #2, 14th rounder (#167) and 15th rounder (#170)

Plugging in players, I got MJD, Josh Cribbs, and Jerome Harrison.
He got Matt Forte, Philly defense, Kevin Jones.

More importantly (from my perspective), what I could’ve potentially got with my picks were 10th round were Chris Henry, David Gerrard, Trent Edwards, Kyle Orton or 12th round San Diego defense, Chad Pennington.

In retrospect, is having MJD over Forte worth more than a better defense and decent backup QB? Probably not. I can’t explain why I’m down on Forte - he was consistently productive throughout last season, Cutler opens up the offense, and he’s young and healthy. I probably would’ve taken him at #4. But for some reason I just don’t like him and I liked MJD a whole lot more. But I acknowledge that MJD probably won’t have a massively better season than Forte, so I probably gave up a bit too much to move up.

Still, there’s something nice about being enthusiastic about your first pick, rather than having an unarticulable dislike towards them. Still, I think Ellis Dee got the better part of the trade.

122

To be clear, I’m not that high on Mangini yet. His tendency to create a secretive, paranoid environment is scary. And I haven’t seen much of his scheme, prep, or gameplanning yet.

But I thought Crennel was utterly incompetant, among the worst NFL head coaches ever to coach. So even if Mangini turns out to be mediocre to average, it will be an improvement.

123

Print it out and put it up on your fantasy chalkboard as a fantasy locker room motivator! :slight_smile:

Maybe you’ll win it all. It isn’t like I get paid for these things, so what do I know?

124

Felix Jones is my 23rd ranked RB on my list, and his point total projection by itself would put him in the top 20. I agree that I think he’ll take over the “starter” job, but I don’t think it means that much. Dallas really wants to go back to what worked so well with Julius Jones- Jones (heh, doesn’t matter what first name) starts the game and gets most of the carries in the first half, Barber finishes the game and gets all of the carries in the second half. And if Felix is still returning kicks, there’s even more value. I thought it was a really good pick and you aren’t alone in your assessment of Jones. Though I think the degree to which being a starter in that offense would help him is minimal-- Barber will still have more fantasy points at the end of the season.

125

Back to work!

Jules Andre’s grades:** No Use For A Name (RetroVertigo)**
Information on what the rankings are is in my original grades post on my own team.

QB - Carson Palmer, Jake Delhomme
(Rank: 11)
I think Carson bounces back. He’s on a bad team that should force him to throw more, and if he doesn’t get hurt, he certainly has the weapons on the outside to chuck it around all game trying to catch up. But because of the way the QB position has evolved, even if he does bounce back, he won’t return to a top 5 QB. I have him as my 13th QB overall. And all of this is an optimistic projection, he still has a ton of risk. He didn’t have surgery, and basically rested all preseason and hoped things would get better. There’s no guarantee he’ll make it through a single game. That’s a ton of risk!

So why did you then draft Delhomme? You should always hedge a risky top starter with a safer alternative, just in case. I think Delhomme is done. He’s coming off the worst playoff performance in the history of the sport, and he just doesn’t look like he has anything left. Your upside here is what, last season? 3500 yards and 15 TDs? Palmer is such an injury risk it’s likely you’ll have to go to Delhomme at some point, and he’s going to bury you against most teams. And Delhomme isn’t young either, he’s an injury concern himself. You have a reasonable chance of losing both your QBs to injury. If it weren’t for Beef taking just a single injury-riddled, middling QB himself, this would be by far the worst QB situation in the league.
**Grade: D-

**RB - **Brian Westbrook, **LenDale White, Rashard Mendenhall, Shonn Greene
(Rank: 10)
This is a bad situation to be in. I like Westbrook as a #1. Maybe he lasts into round two, I saw it happen in a number of mock drafts, but probably not. He’s certainly a stud RB, despite missing a game or two every season. And he qualifies as a true #1 in that he will absolutely win a game or two this season for you by himself. But he’s a risk, possibly the riskiest of the true #1s. He’s going to miss a game, if not two or eight, and he’s going to lose time to LeSean McCoy, at least somewhat. You really did yourself a disservice by not taking a second guy early to pair with him.

White is fine, you know what he is. Even getting off the sauce and losing all his baby fat (finally), he probably won’t do much better than last season. And as a bruiser on the goal line, his weight loss could even hurt his effectiveness. It isn’t as if he’s going to gain ground on Chris Johnson, so you know what to expect from him and it isn’t a starter. As your second RB, you’re in a lot of trouble if you have to start him due to injury. Mendenhall was a reach, his ADP puts him in the 12th round, and taking him ahead of Parker was lunacy. Shonn Greene is a fine pick, but you essentially have his older brother in White. Greene’s ceiling this season is an effective goal line guy. If forced into splitting games between White and Greene, you’re going to tear out your hair trying to predict who gets the goal line scores in any given week between those two. Your RB depth is all basically the same player-- heavily weighted towards goal line work and thus, ultimately unpredictable and unreliable as a starter. And since your #1 is probably the riskiest in the league, you really hurt yourself not establishing better depth at this position.
**Grade: D

**WR - **Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Santana Moss, **Steve Breaston, Percy Harvin
(Rank: 2)
I think you have the best top 2 at this position in the league. You lose the top ranking because of Moss, who projects poorly and is unlikely to repeat his performance last season. Johnson is my second overall WR, and Boldin is an incredible #2. This is the real strength of your team, but even here you face some potential trouble.

Schaub will get hurt this season (again) and Andre could suffer for it. Schaub’s backups are Orlovsky and Grossman (ugh). But I suppose if anyone could weather that potential storm, it’s Andre. Boldin is a slight injury risk, but you have Breaston to mitigate the concern. Where your team will suffer is if Moss goes down. You have no reliable RB to plug into the flex, and starting Breaston and Boldin together is asking for problems. Percy Harvin is someone whom I don’t think will be worthy of a start at any point this season. You have a really strong group here on paper, but no depth whatsoever.
**Grade: B

**TE - Antonio Gates, Chase Coffman
(Rank: 1)
I really like Gates this season. I think he returns as the #1 TE in all of football, You’ll have a scoring advantage at this position over every team in the league, virtually every week. Coffman was a wasted pick, even at 15. You needed depth elsewhere, and he’s useless. Even if he breaks out in a big way for Cincy, nobody was going to draft him and you had a good shot at picking him up during the season. I dislike 2 TEs in general, and this was as bad a pick as I can imagine, even for a 15th. Even if you’re dead set on a second TE, there are better options out there.
**Grade: B-

**K - Josh Brown
(Rank: None)
Sure. Plays in a dome, which is a plus. Not much else to say, except you you probably took your kicker a round early. It isn’t as if Brown is a high ranking stud at the position.
**Grade: B-

**Def - **Chicago
**(Rank: 8)
I remember when taking Chicago would have been a huge advantage. Their defense has struggled a little of late and isn’t the same starter caliber unit as it once was. They still have Hester on special teams, but no longer for kicks, just punts. You could face a few negative scoring days against Green Bay and Minnesota if things don’t go well, but overall you’ll be okay starting them every week and forgetting about it.
**Grade: C

**Overall -
This is a strange team. My initial reaction is that this team isn’t very good. But a second glance reveals a potential stud at QB, a stud at RB, and the best top two WRs in the league, as well as the best TE. That’s a pretty strong group at the skill positions! Unfortunately, a third look immediately follows and reveals all the blemishes. Palmer is a huge risk that you didn’t reinforce. Westbrook is a huge risk that you didn’t reinforce. AJ and Boldin are excellent, but you lack a flex option worth a damn. Westbrook, AJ, and Boldin will win you a few weeks, and could really blow out some unsuspecting teams. But this is a classic “When healthy…” team that doesn’t have a good chance to make it intact through the entire season. Had you spent picks on reliable depth, you would have given yourself a very good chance at the playoffs. As it is, you are probably on the outside looking in.
**Grade: C
**

126

Jules Andre’s grades:** Tazmanian Devils (Tazmanian Devils)**
Information on what the rankings are is in my original grades post on my own team.

QB - **Matt Schaub, **Jason Campbell
(Rank: 9)
I really like Schaub this year. If, by some miracle, he doesn’t miss 5 games, he has a great shot at finishing in the top 5 at the position. Getting that potential in the 6th round is excellent, and I was really hoping to have him as my #2 this season. Campbell is a good backup, steady and reliable, if unspectacular. Exactly the kind of guy that should be paired with a huge injury risk like Schaub. You’ll be fine at this position this season.
**Grade: B

**RB - **LaDanian Tomlinson, Steve Slaton, **Jamal Lewis, Willis McGahee
(Rank: 1)
Home run. Tomlinson and Slaton are a sick combination, easily the best top 2 in the league. Even if Tomlinson shows his age, you have a legitimate #1 in Slaton to back him up. What a fantastic duo that should win you multiple weeks.

Unfortunately for you… the other two happened. Tomlinson is an injury risk after turning 30 and having perhaps more mileage on him than any other 30 y/o back ever. He looks good, though, but the risk is there. And you have absolutely nothing else to back him up with. It really is a shame, because there’s almost no way Lewis or McGahee end the season as fantasy contributors. I hope for your sake Tomlinson doesn’t get hurt.
**Grade: B

**WR - **Dwayne Bowe, Hines Ward, **Michael Jenkins
(Rank: 11)
Ugh. Sure, Bowe is a fine #1. He produces even when complete scrubs are lazily chucking ducks into the air in his general direction. He can only be better with Cassel throwing to him. But… man are you fucked. You need to go buy some chickens and start doing a daily sacrifice praying that Bowe stays healthy all season. Ward isn’t a terrible second guy, but Jenkins is probably a waste. And you have nobody else! If Bowe or Ward go down, you don’t even have a third RB to plug in even if you could start 3 RBs! Ouch
**Grade: D

**TE - **Jason Witten, **John Carlson
(Rank: 2)
Witten will serve you very well as a dependable fantasy scorer. He’s my 2nd overall scorer at the position. Carlson is a waste, and even though he has value as a starter level player, you’re probably going to need to drop him to add depth at your other spots
**Grade: C+

**K - **Stephen Gostkowski, **Mason Crosby
(Rank: None)
… ah the joys of auto drafting. Obviously grading kickers at all is a joke. But let’s say you somehow knew who would be the top overall fantasy kicker beforehand. Even then, drafting a kicker in any round other than the last round is a really bad move. Obviously you didn’t have a choice, but this is dreadful. I guess, apart from the draft, your situation is great? You need to drop Crosby to pick up a WR A.S.A.P… Gotta take this for how it went down though, despite you not having a choice.
**Grade: F

**Def - **New York Giants, **Miami
(Rank: 4)
The Giants should be an awesome fantasy defense, even in that division. It’s just a shame you were forced to take them so early. Miami is a good second unit, but their schedule is unfavorable simply by playing New England twice. Again, on paper, you’re more than fine here. The rank reflects that, but the grade takes into account how auto drafting screws your team up.
**Grade: D-

**Overall -
Ranking an autodrafted team is kind of a time waster. The grades are a little unimportant here, considering there was no thought put into which players went where. Taken as a whole, this team certainly could have been worse. With Schaub, your amazing RBs, and Bowe, you’ll be competitive in every week you can start all four of them. Without having had any control over your team, you cannot possibly ask for much else. But you’ll have a lot of work to do to shore up the depth positions on your team, and I have a feeling you might be forced into moving LDT or Slaton in order to back up Schaub if he goes down, as well as add a second and third receiver. Is Schaub and LDT go down… yikes.
**Grade: C

**

127

Jules Andre’s grades:** Isotopes (Petey)**
Information on what the rankings are is in my original grades post on my own team.

QB - **Philip Rivers, **Chad Pennington
(Rank: 4)
That ranking is probably a little low considering the strength you have at this position. You’re set. You have a legitimate stud in the post-breakout but-not-yet-capped portion of his career, and he will do you proud. Pennington might be the best backup in the league, depending on how Cutler can manage his lack of receivers in Chicago.
Grade: A

RB - **Chris Johnson, **Joseph Addai, Julius Jones, Chester Taylor
(Rank: 11)
You have your stud, who is a prime candidate for being the #1 pick next season. Where your ranking suffers is in your depth. Addai is a has been, and isn’t guaranteed to have a job halfway through the season. Jones is actually a solid #3 considering he’s essentially a full time starter on what should be a run first team, but I don’t think he’s someone you can start every week. Taylor is a great fourth because he has far more potential (and real) value as a handcuff. If Addai fights off Brown and takes hold of the job without getting hurt, your overall ranking at the end of the season will far surpass second worst in the league. If Johnson gets hurt early on… well, you really should be sending him HGH weekly at this point.
**Grade: C

**WR - **Calvin Johnson, Terrell Owens, Bernard Berrian, **Kevin Walter, Tedd Ginn Jr., Chris Chambers
(Rank: 5)
Megatron is a terrific #1, and a lot of people project him to end up #1 at the position. Overall I have him finishing 3rd. Owens is a great #2 on paper, but I don’t like him this season. If he does what he usually does, you have one of the better duos in the league, if not best. Berrian is a good #3, but I’d feel uncomfortable starting him as a flex, and even worse as a 2 if someone goes down ahead of him. He’ll shut you out on too many weeks to rely on. As long as Owens and Calvin can contribute for you ahead of him though, his boom/bust weekly production will swing a week for you which is amazing for a third WR. Walter might even be a better #3, so you’re really set at this position. With your top 4, you have the ability to take chances on boom/bust guys late, and Ginn is the perfect one. He’s topping a lot of lists as the breakout WR this season. Chambers was probably not necessary on this team, the only drawback to a stellar WR group.
**Grade: A

**TE - **Tony Gonzalez
**(Rank: 3)
What’s not to like? Rumors that he won’t catch as much in Atlanta because he’ll be blocking more are probably bogus. You got a top 3 guy at the position and will have a big advantage over nearly every other team at this spot every week.
**Grade: A

**K - Ryan Longwell
(Rank - None)
Plays in a dome, but has a terrific red zone offense ahead of him without a dominant overall offense in general. Still a fine pick, it’s hard to screw up a kicker pick unless you either: a) take one in round 7, or, b) don’t take one at all. Perfectly fine, here.
**Grade: B+

**Def - **Indianapolis
**(Rank: 7)
I’m unsure about Indy this season. They don’t scare me against the pass, and while they should rack up sacks, they’re kinda generic. No real special teams bonus either. I have a feeling you might be better off swapping them out for something on the wire. But as the last defense taken, there wasn’t anything really left anyway.
**Grade: C

**Overall -
I didn’t notice what you were building during the draft, but you quietly ended up with a superior top 6 and one of the scarier lineups to face in any given week. Where your draft really shines though, is in the depth you managed to pile up outside of your excellent starters at each important position. You not only have a quality guy to start on your bench every week, but you also have lots of pieces to move should you want to be more aggressive and improve your team further. Were I betting on finishes, I’d say you easily earned a playoff spot and possibly a first round bye with this draft. Not the best in the league, but you may have locked up #2. You will probably have your best overall finish in the last three years with this team.
Grade: A

128

Jules Andre’s grades:** The Gridbirds** (brianjedi)
Information on what the rankings are is in my original grades post on my own team.

QB - **Tony Romo, **Matt Ryan
(Rank: 5)
I think that ranking is misleading because you’re really set here. You have only a slight bit of risk in Romo holding you back, I guess. Ryan is in the mix as best backup in the league, and should each do exactly what they did last season, you might actually be hurt by trying to determine which guy has a better game week by week. I think Romo improves on last season overall, but stays outside of the top 5. You certainly won’t be hurting for a QB to start though.
**Grade: B+

**RB - **Steven Jackson, Clinton Portis, **Cedric Benson, Le’Ron McClain
(Rank: 3)
SJax and Portis is a ridiculous top 2, really. I’ve got it third overall, as a duo. Jackson is such an incredible talent, that if he can just stay healthy you have a shot at a top 3 overall guy, especially this season. A move to a west coast offense and more dump downs should really help. Portis should have a really strong season, but an overall slight decline and Washington tries to keep him fresh for the second half. He really wore down and fell apart over the second half last season. You’ll be happier when eh scores 20 points less over the season but 3 points more per game during the fantasy playoffs.

I really like Benson as a #3, especially considering where you got him. He’s an incredible value in the 10th round considering he’s a stand alone starter that should get plenty of touches. He won’t win anything for you, and I’m betting his overall season production, while impressive, will be largely wasted for you. McClain is an enigma. He was a workhorse candidate last season who didn’t get a lot of carries. He was a goal line stud who may have lost his job there. He could end up being a pure blocking full back.
**Grade: A

**WR - *Chad OchoCinco, Donnie Avery, **Deion Branch, Patrick Crayton
(Rank: 12)
Uh oh. OchoCinco is a fine WR and I see him returning for one last season of elite production. He looks incredible this offseason, even before Hard Knocks. And hey, you might even get kicker points from him. But while he may end up with #1 numbers, he’s a solid #2, which is a problem for you, since, you know, he’s your 1. Avery was hurt in the preseason and hasn’t yet officially returned, hence the askterisk. He’s reportedly healed and ready to start what is a consensus break out campaign. But his injury was a stress fracture, which are notorious, like bulging disks, to FLARE UP AT ANY TIME! If you’re forced to start Branch, you’re in a lot of trouble as he’s in danger of not getting on the field at all this season and certainly won’t get a lot of work when he does. Crayton is a better #3, I think, and he represents incredible value where you picked him up. In fact, he might be the steal of the draft if he can finally live up to being a starter. Overall this unit is severely lacking, and if I’m wrong about 85, you need to start scouring the wire and sending out trade offers on day one.
**Grade: D

**TE - **Dallas Clark, **Vernon Davis
(Rank: 7)
I project Clark to lose a step this season, even if he is now more important to the offense as a whole than ever before. But, I’m probably wrong and you ended up with a top 5 guy and a nice advantage week to week. Davis might have been a wasted pick, but he’s looked good so far this preseason. I think it’s finally the year he becomes productive, though still not worthy as a starter.
**Grade: B

**K - **Rob Bironas
**(Rank: None)
Ah, the Rob Bironas special. I fucking hate Rob Bironas, and so he’ll probably kick six field goals if our teams face each other this season. He’s one of those guys that just seems more likely to have a 30 point game than anyone else, and I can’t explain it. But that said, what were you thinking drafting him in the 9th? That’s indefensible. Even if he blows up, the difference between he and the 10th best kicker at the end of the season will be about a point a game, two at most. Maybe he wins you a week by himself, but that’s still not worth taking him four rounds ahead of where you could have gotten him.
**Grade: D-

**Def - **Baltimore, **New England
(Rank: 3)
You could draft Baltimore and plug them in as your starter and not worry about a second defense. You don’t need New England. So while your overall situation is excellent, you severely over-extended yourself in reaching for Baltimore and followed up a largely poor choice in drafting a second, useless (to you), defense. Unacceptable strategy there.
**Grade: F

**Overall -
You look really good at QB and at RB, but made poor value judgments nearly everywhere else. Even your advantage at QB could end up costing you if you start having trouble determining which guy to start from week to week. Your RB and Flex spots are locked in, but your WR spots are a mess, especially if Avery can’t come back fully healthy. If you knew AVery was hurt, you really made a poor choice in not drafting a suitable WR to start in his place until he comes back. You have really high grades and really low grades, mostly on draft position of the players you took. But overall this roster is solid aside from your glaring need of a WR or two. While I don’t like how you drafted, your team won’t be in the cellar unless Jackson and OchoCinco get hurt.
Grade: D

129

In another league I have Chris Johnson and LenDale White, but I was able to get White in the 9th round in a 9 team league (78th overall). In this draft, White went 2 picks after Addai (66th overall). So I kind of regret the Addai pick now.

One year I picked 3 running backs in the first 3 rounds before I realized I couldn’t start them all. So I intentionally went for WRs more this year. T.O. went right after Welker, Boldin, and Bowe. I was hoping one of those would slip to me.

I thought everyone else had a defense, so I waited until the end. I didn’t expect a lot of people to grab a second defense.

130

Jules Andre’s grades:** Last Place (Kiros)**
Information on what the rankings are is in my original grades post on my own team.

QB - **Kurt Warner, **Matt Cassel
(Rank: 7)
So Warner is a potential stud, even at his older age. He has the weapons, the accuracy, and the offensive gameplan to succeed. But the dude had offseason hip surgery and isn’t a paragon of durability to begin with. Sure, the upside is there, but you run a high chance of losing him this season. And you passed on Rivers for him, who may outplay Warner even if both are healthy all season. Cassel was probably not the wise choice considering all the assumed risk in Warner. He’s every bit a risk himself. His offensive line stinks, his receivers outside of Bowe are really bad, and his run game isn’t productive. He could be a one year wonder. I would have preferred a more stable replacement to Warner as you may not have a worthy QB to start in, say, week 6.
**Grade: C

** RB - **Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, **Leon Washington, Fred Jackson, Tim Hightower
(Rank: 8)
Frank Gore is set to have a monster season. Everything I’ve read about him has said he will dominate this offense and opposing defenses. He’ll run, run in the goal line, and catch passes again. My projections are a bit conservative as he has a good chance of being a top 3 overall guy this season. I really like him as a #1. Mr. Sprained MCL is the typical #2 in a PPR league and probably isn’t a competitive flex overall, but he represents great value where you got him and was clearly the best option available. Your depth is terrific. It represents a strong mix of high potential guys who could all be strong contributors with more opportunity. You could flex Fred Jackson for the first three weeks and have a really strong start to the season. If he runs away with the job in the first three games (which I think he will, Buffalo’s opening schedule is really favorable and I can’t imagine Buffalo will bench him after how well he’ll start the season) you got a steal with him. Hightower is incredible value, just amazing. Arizona runs the ball a lot in the red zone, and runs it well, and you got one of the better goal line vultures in the league at worst. At best, you got a quality second or third RB. Overall, very strong group here, despite the lack of a dependable #2 on day one.
Grade: B+
WR - **Randy Moss, Brandon Marshall, *Santonio Holmes, Jerricho Cotchery, Nate Washington
(Rank: 1)
Marshall is the reason for the asterisk. If he’s suspended into the season, or loses his role due to his conduct, your group takes a hit. If he plays a majority of the season and returns as the clear #1, your group is the best in the league by a fair margin. Moss is the best WR in the league in my book, at least in fantasy, and will be a major advantage for you. Holmes is a terrific #3, and would be solid even as a #2 if Marshall is out of action. He’s the perennial breakout candidate, and if he finally does, you’re set. With so much firepower you could afford to take shots with Cotchery and Washington, both potentially very valuable guys. If you #4 and #5 each have the potential to be a flex starter, you’ve done well for yourself. Considering where you took Marshall however, I wonder if you wouldn’t have been much better off with OchoCinco or Houshmandzadeh, and certainly would have been with Vincent Jackson or even Antonio Bryant. Even taking Marion Barber would have been a better overall choice. I think at season’s end, the Marshall pick will have been one of the bigger mistakes in the league.
**Grade: B

**TE - **Kellen Winslow
**(Rank: 9)
He has one leg, and isn’t the clear starter after other preseason performances. His QB situation is a mess, and the entire team will struggle on offense all season long. In a PPR setting he’s always a high upside guy, but you passed on more reliable guys to take him way too early. Maybe he ends up being a solid starter for you, but not where you took him. The Marshall choice stands out even more when your opportunity cost with that pick was your choice of any TE in the game.
**Grade: D

**K - **John Kasay
**(Rank: None)
You didn’t reach, well done.
**Grade: B

**Def - **Tampa Bay
**(Rank: 11)
They play in a tough division with powerhouse offenses teams from top to bottom and are very questionable in talent to begin with. You rightfully took them in the second to last round, but you’ll end up dropping them before week 4. Tampa will end as one of the bottom 10 fantasy defenses this season in my eyes, and you could have done a lot better, even so late. Luckily, you still can.
**Grade: C-

**Overall -
If Warner stays healthy, Gore breaks out, and Marshall plays, you have a very potent top 4. Reggie Bush may end up being a hinderance as his production always seemed unreliable to me, but perhaps he finally has really learned how to not dance in the backfield. Perhaps he somehow becomes a legitimate running and receiving threat. But I think as he goes, so your team will go, and that’s not very comforting. Your best bet is to flex Fred Jackson for the first three weeks, hope Holmes plays well in the beginning, and make some moves. You could start very well this season and with the right adjustments, ride the wave into the playoffs. Your outlook this season wouldn’t be so unclear had you allowed someone else to take a chance on Marshall, and I feel like you’ll end up needing to play for a win to make the playoffs in week 13.
**Grade: C

**

131

If you feel like you need to beef up at RB, by the way, Marion Barber, Ray Rice, and Knowshon Moreno are all up on my trading block.

132

And finally, the last gradesheet. I apologize to **Omni; **I didn’t realize how badly I stepped on your toes and hood-jacked your idea until halfway through the teams. My format is essentially completely ripped off of yours. Sorry.

Jules Andre’s grades:** Frosted_Lightning (Frosted Glass)**
Information on what the rankings are is in my original grades post on my own team.

QB - **Drew Brees, **Brett Favre
(Rank: 3)
I’m no fan of Favre, but anyone paired with Brees nets you a high ranking. Is anyone as reliably explosive as he is? A top 3 guy at the most important position is a boon. You smartly took a risk with your backup, considering how reliable Brees has been these last few seasons. Favre will likely end up being a 1:1 TD/INT guy this season, but he could go back to '07 form with such a dominant and distracting run game (which he has never had). He chucks it up a lot, but it’s a lot easier to make those completions when the safety has to sit in the box to protect against the run. And you can’t single cover Berrian on the outside and have any hope of stopping the go route. For how well we know exactly what Favre is, he carries a lot of unknowns this season. I really like your potential here, even if you start Favre only once. And best of all, you got one of the higher upside backups for a low cost. Excellent job.
**Grade: A

**RB - **Thomas Jones, **Larry Johnson, **Derrick Ward
**(Rank: 12)
I just threw up a little bit in my mouth. After such a masterful job selecting your QB corp, you completely, utterly, screwed this up. Here are your choices, in order, by average draft position, and where you selected them in parenthesis:
Thomas Jones - Mid sixth (3rd), Larry Johnson - late eighth (4th), Derrick Ward - mid ninth (5th). That’s atrocious. Maybe those ADPs are slightly elevated, you still raached by at least a round on all of them, and Larry Johnson is the worst pick of the draft. Maybe Jones isn’t done, despite being on the wrong side of 30 and having a terrible offseason. Maybe Larry Johnson is undervalued considering his recently renewed work ethic. And maybe Derrick Ward becomes a lead runner in a 2:1 carries split in Tampa. All in all, you reached on every guy, failed to get a true #1, and still don’t have enough depth for the injury risks here.
**Grade: F

**WR - **Larry Fitzgerald, Derrick Mason, **Laveraneus Coles, Mark Clayton
(Rank: 8)
I’m surprised having Fitzgerald, the consensus #1 WR among experts, could not help boost your overall ranking. Fitz is terrific and he carries your WR spot, but his production isn’t enough for me. He’s not good in the red zone, and if Boldin stays healthy he should see a drop off in touchdowns overall. Still, he’s a stud. I really like Derrick Mason this season, I was upset when he didn’t fall to me, he’s an excceltn pick and a great value for you. He’s a solid flex but probably a disadvantage as your #2 WR. I don’t like Coles this season. He’s been too quiet, too unknown. With 85 looking great and Chris Henry getting rave reviews, I think he slowly fades away this season. I don’t know what Mark Clayton could do for you, especially with Mason already on your roster.
**Grade: C+

**TE - **Heath Miller, **Anthony Fasano
(Rank: 12)
Heath Miller wasn’t a relevant fantasy TE last season. Perhaps you predict a return to his '07 form, but even so, drafting him in round eight with much more reliable and relevant players still available was a surprise. Heath Miller is the guy you take in round 13 or 14 if you feel you absolutely need a TE. He and Larry Johnson are in the top 5 reaches of the entire draft. And why even bother with Fasano if you feel strongly enough about Miller to take him at 8? I really don’t understand these picks, and I don’t think they’ll serve you at all this season.
**Grade: F

**K - **David Akers, **Nick Folk
(Rank: None)
I saw you drafted Nick Folk with the last pick of the draft, which is perfectly fine. I didn’t even notice you took Akers in the 10th. Good God. I’m changing my criteria, I think it’s better to not draft a kicker at all than to take one in the 10th, and draft a second kicker to boot.
(Rank: 12)
I feel like I’m being too negative and mean here, but these picks are inexcusable.
**Grade: F

**Def - **Pittsburgh, **Minnesota
(Rank: 1)
Pittsburgh was a stud last season, and I don’t think anyone realizes they were a top 25-30 player… overall. That;s a third round pick if you draft by purely points totals (and really, that’s what we’re trying to do in fantasy football, score points). So I can excuse drafting a defense in round six if you get such a high performer, because they will likely score more than any player selected in that round. And mysteriously, fantasy defenses don’t benefit from the “Scarcity” rule that boost the draft stocks of the top shortstops or centers in baseball and basketball respectively. There are 1 or 2 top defenses each season and it’s a big advantage to have one of them. This is something I’ve come around on recently in draft strategy. The difference between Pittsburgh last season and the #8 defense (Indy) was seventy points overall, almost 4 and a half points a game. 4 points is a significant advantage per game at a typically low upside position. Quarterback is similarly separated, as is Tight End, though neither show so much separation from 1 or 2 and 4. Drafting the best at those positions provides a unique opportunity to have a built in points advantage each week. If your QB, TE, and Defense are going to average 3-6 points better per week than your opponent, you’re basically starting an extra player each week.

Back to our program, I think you did fine with Pittsburgh, and they typically get taken in the 6th or 7th so no reach there. You’ll start them every single week regardless of matchups.

… why Minnesota? Not only did you take an unnecessary second defense, you took them in the 11th? If you feel you need a second defense to play the matchups with, gamble on a higher upside defense in the last round.
**Grade: F

**Overall -
You reached, a lot, and often. I think you pigeon-holed yourself into drafting depth at unnecessary positions. Your extra picks at TE, Def, and K cost you much needed depth at WR and RB. You did really well for yourself at QB, and Fitz will score a lot for you at WR. Everything else isn’t just a concern, it’s a really big problem. Maybe RB works out for you, but I don’t see it. On the bright side, you have a top 2 guy at three positions, which is something to be excited about. And on paper, Brees, Jones, Fitz, and Pittsburgh should keep you in most games. You won’t go winless, but I think you’ll have the lowest scoring team at season’s end. You clearly came out of the draft with the most problems and biggest waste of the value of your mid round picks. You have zero high upside, young players, so even if I wanted to try to paint your team in a positive light, I can’t find anyone who could conceivably break out and move into the top 10 at their position. Favre could I guess, but you couldn’t start him even if he did. Your team lacks upside.
**Grade: F

**I’m sorry if this came off as unreasonably harsh, I didn’t mean it to be and I hope it’s taken with a grain of salt (I’m an idiot) and I don’t actually know anything.

133

True dat. No way I take Eli that early in a money league, although I might still take the flier on Jacobs and hope he stays healthy.

134

Raw points are only part of the number and this bad logic, IMO. To demonstrate this, let’s say we doubled kicker scoring across the board - now kickers are the biggest scoring players in our league. Should they then be taken #1 overall? No, because they’re hard to predict, and end up averaging out pretty similar scores throughout the season anyway. There’s not a reliable set of tiers or consistency.

Similarly, a good defense’s value is mostly based on how valuable it is relative to other defenses. That it may be a top 30 scorer certainly doesn’t justify a top 30 pick in a rational draft.

Edit: But I don’t mind the pick in the 6th round. People don’t adjust to the scoring system they’re playing in sufficiently. In our system the best defenses are indeed valuable. I was just attempting to address the “we’re here to score points” issue.

135

This is more important than money. Ego is at stake.

136

I don’t think your kicker analogy has any merit, because while both kickers and defenses vary greatly from season to season, the difference between the top kicker and the tenth kicker is half that of the top defense from the 10th defense. There is no relative difference between guessing correctly on the best kicker overall to whomever ends up 10th. If you roll the dice and select the season’s best defense, you have a significant advantage over the worst starting defense in the league.

All of that said, in writing out my arguments for why I think defenses are extremely undervalued and that fundamental draft strategy is wrong, I talked myself out of the entire idea. The arguments are too flimsy. There’s only one good argument I can come up with for why taking a top defense early is a good idea: you can’t possibly draft a defense that gets injured and misses entire weeks at a time, and you can’t possibly draft a defense that suffers a season-ending injury.

I’ve never spent any time trying to rank defenses or project them. I might now, knowing that if I find a way to do it I’ll have a significant advantage over my opponents. The real argument against drafting a defense early based on overall scoring is that I would likely still get them in the 14th, even if I found the number 1 defense ahead of time.

137

Let’s see if this thing still works…

The Bironas pick was an autopick by Yahoo, because I was actually putting my daughter to bed at that exact moment.

New England was a pick solely to fill in for Baltimore’s bye week.

The Avery pick was a product of realizing about two rounds too late that I needed another WR and having to make a reach. I’m optimistic Crayton might be good enough to warrant stealing some PT from people.

Also, I have always sucked at drafting WRs. Always. Go look it up.

138

**Court Jesters **- D_Odds

QB - Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger
Not a great pairing by any stretch. Eli wasn’t a top 10 QB when he had Plax and Toomer, and there’s no scenario where he’s better this year. At least in the Tiki days they screened the shit out of teams. I don’t think that’s a reasonable expectation with this RB group. Bradshaw might be productive situationally, but Jacobs isn’t going to be catching balls. I’m OK with waiting on a QB and taking a mediocre FFLer in the middle rounds as your starter, especially when he’s as steady and durable as Eli, but you did it about 3 rounds too soon. Hell Cutler and Palmer were on the board for another 2 rounds.

Big Ben has been my Fantasy QB far too often as I employed the wait-on-a-QB theory and I think he’s clearly better than Eli this season. In the 9th round he’s actually a fair value, even a steal considering the doubts about their running game, and he’d be a fine starter…if you hadn’t wasted a 5th round pick on Eli. He always won me one or two weeks a year with a big game and a rushing TD or two and he rarely lost me one. I like the pick, and I’d love it if he were backing up a stud.

Just a ton of value spent on the position and your two guys are close enough in talent that you could really do some nice things playing matchups. It’d be a great tactical move if only you’d have done it in 8/9 and not 5/9. Grade: C-

RB - Brandon Jacobs, Ronnie Brown, Darren Sproles, Sammy Morris
I love Jacobs, I really do, he made a mockery of the Bears defense as he bounced off of white jerseys on every carry until they learned to go low. And in that sentence lies the issue with Jacobs, tacklers need to go low to bring him down and going low will take a toll on his legs and feet. He’s almost assured of missing some time. Nonetheless, I’d have loved him at the 7 or 8 spot in the first round. Few people have him rated that high, but I do. But there’s just no way he should have been drafted before DeAngelo Williams or LDT. Even Chris Johnson is probably a better pick, but I wouldn’t begrudge you going with size and TDs over speed since they have equal injury doubts. Ronnie Brown I’m much less bullish on. He’s probably going to monopolize the work in Miami as Ricky seems to be growing moss and I expect a uptick in results from last year. Also, he’s a steal in the 3rd round by my count, so kudos all around. However you need to be counting on him as your Flex and probably as your RB1 when Jacobs missed time and Ronnie Brown is injury prone. You’ll be in a world of hurt if both are hurt in the same week or you have byes while one is dinged.

The backups I hate. Sproles is crazy popular and if LDT goes down he’ll be the guy, but I’m telling you right now he’ll be useless if the Chargers have him taking all the snaps. I’ve seen him going earlier than the 8th round so I can’t really call this a reach but there were starters still left on the board there. Its worth mentioning that I think LDT is due for a monster year so that colors my projection. Morris another iffy backup. The Pats RB is a complete mystery and it’s not clear who is getting the lions share of the touches. It’s safe to say that it’s NOT Morris though. He might be the goal line guy, but he might also be in street clothes. IF you’ve have gotten a handcuff for one of the top 2 I’d have been much higher on this situation.

You really put me in a pickle with that Jacobs pick. I didn’t think there was any way that both Williams and LDT fell to me at 6 and I agonized over the decision. I’m still not sure I made the right choice. Grade: C

WR - Reggie Wayne, Antonio Bryant, Lee Evans, Muhsin Muhammad, Hakeem Nicks
I’m predicting some struggles in Indy and as a result I had Wayne ranked below a few of the guys drafted after him. However, that is just one mans guess, by all accounts this is a very good value. His biggest attribute is that he’ll never be shut out and he could have a 3 TD game at any time. He’s the perfect combo of steady and explosive. So long as the Indy O holds form and Gonzalez lives up to expectations you’ll be gold, but I think those two are bigger Qs than most. Bryant’s QB situation really scares me. His stats last year were fantastic and he appeared to be making the leap but there’s a regime change and a QB issue that could turn him into a total bust. Not the scenario you want from a WR2 in this league because you might very well be using that WR3 when your RBs get dinged up.

Speaking of WR3 Lee Evans is a great one. Second best in our entire draft by my count, but the doubts around Bryant require it. I think the addition of Owens will help more than it hurts I’ve already noted that I’ve liked what I’ve seen of Edwards this preseason. The other two have issues. Moose simply is done, stick a fork in him, everything we’ve said about Steve Smith’s being hurt by Delhomme applies triple to Moose. Jake can’t thread the needle and Moose can’t create separation, bad combo. Nicks hasn’t impressed in camp and who knows what the Giants passing game will be like. I can’t hate on the late round homer pick though.

The value of this group depends on 2 things, the ability of the Tampa QBs and the health of the RBs. I think both will be bad. Grade: B-

TE - Jeremy Shockey, Kevin Boss
Gag!!! Shockey gets more hate than he deserves and anyone in that NO offense could be a surprise but in the 7th round taking him is madness. There were much better options available. Boss on the other hand is a steal in the 14th, he’s the only known quantity in the Giants passing game. Getting steals in the 14th when you over pay for a starter in the 7th is like your girlfriend having a really hot sister, though. Grade: C-

K - Kris Brown
He’s a good one. I had him queued up alongside Elam in the last round. I hadn’t entirely decided which I wanted but you could make a pretty good case for Brown being the crazy break out Kicker of this season. Grade: A-

DEF - Tennessee
I like this defense, even without Haynesworth. I’m less sold on them in the 10th round though. I just don’t think they’ll generate sacks and turnovers reliably enough to justify being drafted ahead of your WR/RB4 aka Bye Week Flex Guy. Grade: B-

Overall: This is a homer corrupted team that has some real flaws and some real reaches. The end result isn’t nearly as flawed as it could be considering some of the gaffes but it’s not very deep at all. The WRs and RBs will need to almost entirely carry this team even though you spent 4 picks on QB and TE. That’s a issue.

Preseason Grade: C

139

I don’t fundamentally disagree with you.In your post after the section I quoted you go on to justify why it can be a good idea to draft a defense high, and you raised some valid points. I only wanted to argue against the “it’s a top 30 scorer, therefore it’s a top 30 pick worthy entity” notion.

Just as an example of what I mean - back in whatever year was Steven Jackson’s good year, back when QB scoring was higher, we had an incident where a player’s QB went down, and he made a trade offer to another team of Steven Jackson for David Carr, because they had the same amount of points scored so far that year and being an inexperienced player he thought that meant it was a fair trade, even though he was getting self-owned (Jackson was a top 5 RB and Carr was like the 15th rated QB or something).

I think our defensive scoring format probably justifies taking the best defense (if you’re very confident they will remain the best defense this year) somewhere around the 7th-8th round, and most of the top third of defenses drafted from the 8th to 11th somewhere.

In the HHM league, their defenses are even more important than ours and yet they don’t really start drafting them till round 11+, which I think is a mistake. I think people don’t do enough thinking about their own custom scoring system - they figure “I usually get my defense in the 11th+ round, so I’ll do that here too”

Of course that psychology plays a role too. A good player may realize that a top 3 defense is worth an 8th round pick, but knows the rest of the league won’t bother drafting a defense to 11+… in which case you may as well wait till the 10th to draft it.

140

Omni’s Omnipotents - Me

QB - Tom Brady, Joe Flacco
I have to say I’ve always shied away from doing the Stud QB thing in fantasy. So much of your fate can be undone in one play, it always stressed me out too much. Then again my history of McNabb/Roethlisberger/Favre/Delhomme experiences aren’t exactly calm and relaxing week to week so perhaps it’s a poor gauge. And knowing that this 1 RB league softens the penalty for waiting on RB as much as it does it was the perfect time to go for it. Brady is going to be a monster. I actually have him rated ahead of Brees by a fair margin so getting him in the late second is a steal in my book. Frankly, in this league Brees and Brady should have gone 8th and 9th overall by my count. I’m thinking 25 points a week easy.

The backup situation is also solid. Flacco’s value there is great and so long as I don’t need him more than 3 or 4 times all year I should be golden. I had Edwards ahead of him but he came off the board in the same round. I almost went Edwards in the previous round but seeing the depth remaining I knew I could wait and waiting netted me Bradshaw. That’s a win for the difference in Edwards and Flacco.

As Brady goes I go, and I’m good with that. Stud QBs tend to stay healthy, much moreso than the perception. Grade: A+

RB - DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Beanie Wells, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Taylor
Going in at the 6 pick I essentially took the position that I’d be happy with whatever fell to me. I felt pretty strongly that there was a clear drop off after the top 6 and between 2 and 5 it’s muddled. In short, I have the perfect draft spot. I did not expect to be choosing between 2 of those guys though and I’ll probably be second guessing passing on LDT all season. My gut tells me DeAngelo is the better guy in the better situation and he’s more likely at this point to dominate any given week, but LDT seems to have fewer “buts” associated. I’m not expecting Williams to match his TD totals but if he gives me a reliable 12-15 points a week I’ll be unstoppable.

Once I took Brady in the 2nd I made the executive decision to ignore the RB2 position in favor of exploiting the increased PPR scoring system wholly. So I made the tactical decision to focus on merely carrying 1 RB in my starting lineup. The risk in this, since I have a stud, is injury and by drafting his highly rated handcuff I should ensure that I’ll been getting the Panther’s entire rush game in my one RB slot regardless of which guy happens to be healthy. If this somehow devolves into a 50-50 split of some kind I’ll have issues, but that doesn’t appear to be likely. Wells was an upside guy and the Cards seem to be just waiting for him to claim the starting job. He looked good when he was on the field in preseason and I think he’ll eventually claim the starting gig and the lions share of carries if he’s consistently healthy. The mistake I made was taking a back with the same bye as the Panthers and were it not for that fact I’d have continued the strategy and taken Hightower as the handcuff. For that reason I was forced to grab Bradshaw and Taylor in late rounds, and frankly each was a very strong value.

With the RB position I’m counting on 1 starter per week and a solid bye week option. I got it. If I take serious injuries to my WRs and have to trot out 2 RBs every week I’ll be worse for it unless Wells becomes a reliable performer. Mission accomplished but I’m by no means loaded. Grade: B-

WR - Wes Welker, Vincent Jackson, Eddie Royal, Torry Holt, Ronald Curry
Bar none, I have the very best WR corps in the league. The Best top 3 and Welker and Royal might just be 1-2 in receptions at the end of the season. Jackson should be an absolute monster and pick up the TD slack, I expect 10+ from him in a contract year. The biggest question mark will be Royal’s production if Orton misses extended time with his finger, but someone there needs to catch balls and Royal just out works everyone. If McDaniel’s system mimics that in New England then Royal will be the Mile High version of Welker. I couldn’t be giddier about these three guys.

The backups are polar opposites. Holt is a steal in the 9th round, he’s going to be a much more reliable target than anything Garrard had last season and he’s the undisputed #1 there. MJD will suck in the Safeties and I think a lot of play action will get Holt open downfield. I won’t hesitate to slot him in to start in those bye weeks. Curry is a bit of a crap shoot. I heard talk that he was over thrown and under thrown on some absurd number of targets last season in Oakland and that with Bulger he could return to form. The Rams offense won’t be good and Curry might not amount to anything but in the 14th round I figured he was as good of a super sleeper as anyone.

The top 4 are pure gold and pretty good values all. They will carry me far. Grade: A

TE - Greg Olsen
I’m not the first one to say it, but Olsen and Cutler will make magic. First off, 80 catches is a real likelihood this season and Olsen has been getting better and better each season. He’d break out this year anyways, and Cutler will simply make it all the more dynamic. The icing on the cake is the Bears 2 TE system which will ask Olsen to fill the role of WR frequently, especially in the end zone where he’ll get the call on jumpballs. I’m expecting top 3 TE numbers from him. Grade: A-

K - Jason Elam
He kicks a ton of 40+ yarders and he kicks in a dome. His offense should be very consistent and he should be a reliable performer. Got him in the last round. Grade: B+

DEF - San Diego
The Chargers pass defense sucked last season and they got caught in a few shootouts, but I expect them to return to top 5 form this year with the dramatically improved pass rush. The changes in Denver and KC will do nothing but help them statistically and there look to be a ton of sacks and interceptions waiting in those divisional games. I especially like the matchups in the final 4 weeks. Grade: B+

Overall: I’m thrilled with this team. I think I have the best collection of starters in the entire league and while my bench isn’t loaded with potential they are assembled in a way that compliments my starters well. The experiment at RB will be educational and if Williams does what he did last season it’s all moot. A little additional depth at WR would be nice but I expect there to be a couple FA moves to be made after we see Week 1 shake out.

Preseason Grade: A