Also, maybe I’m not reading the range factor category correctly on bbref.com–I’m not sure if league average RF is for ALL outfielders, or just for CFers–but if it’s for CFers, then Snider had a 2.20 RF in 2.09 league, even given that he played CF into his 30s, and spent his first ten years in Ebbets Field, with a small centerfield to cover (lots of balls disappearing over the wall that in some other parks could have been caught). Certainly his fielding percentage was clearly better than the average outfielder (or, again, the average CFer–I don’t know which is the comparison here).
I don’t really see how you could undervalue someone who started two All-Star games over Willie Mays in his absolute prime–1954 and 1955. Does that not speak volumes about his ability to cover centerfield?
Not that I mean to pick on you – I agree with your final assessment in the Edmonds HoF thread, and think Edmonds is a completely reasonable choice – but assuming Edmonds plays through the end of 2009, they’ll have almost identical career lengths, but Snider will have an OPS+ that’s a full 8 points higher.
I note that Edmonds is 10th on Snider’s list of comps. It’s also interesting (well, to me, at least) that Snider’s closest comp is Ellis Burks, for whom no good HoF can be made. And Edmonds’ most similar batter through Age 37 is – Ellis Burks!
Hamilton is pretty much the same type of player as Ashburn. I picked both. His BA & SB are inflated, but even adjusting down, he still seems like a top 10 to me. I am also influenced by the respect of his peers and fans. I saw comments in various spots that he was the best defensive CF (that could hit) until Joe D and Willie Mays came along.
This is off topic, but it’s an interesting subject.
When you think about it, the decision to restrict the scoring of “stolen bases” to inter-pitch bases was one of the worst record-keeping decisions ever made in the history of baseball. Taking extra bases on hits is just as valuable as stealing bases, and just as differentiated a skill. Counting stolen bases but not counting extra bases taken on hits is a purely arbitrary distinction; going from first to third on a single because you’re fast is just as valuable as stealing third. Recording the results of ALL extra bases taken would have given a much more complete and accurate picture of a player’s contribution to his team as a baserunner.
On another note, you’ve made a very interesting point about the relative value of speed. My subjective impression is that you’re bang on; the importance of speed is inversely proportional to the quality of baseball being played, especially in fielding skill. If you watch very low level baseball, or softball, it’s obvious that speed confers a huge advantage. In Billy Hamilton’s situation, where errors were at least four times more common and defensive skill a shadow of what it is now, it would be a lot more valuable than today. At the modern major league level, where fielders make very few mistakes, the defense can keep a tight lid on the damage speed does.
I agree that taking extra bases is as valuable as stealing bases, but wouldn’t it be nearly impossible to tease out the extraneous factors? For instance, it seems to me that the handedness of the batters who come up after you would factor in more heavily than your own baserunning skill, in determining how often you can go first to third on a single.
You’d have to give Ashburn a pretty huge defensive boost to even approach Snider’s offense; yes Ashburn had tons of putouts but he played in a big CF behind an extreme flyball staff, while Snider had a very small CF (but also had a flyball staff). If Mays is A+ then Ashburn is A-, Duke C at worst; I don’t see the defensive difference big enough to make up for Snider’s bat. [Ratings are from memory from Bill James’ Win Shares book, which I can’t locate at the moment]
Doby is even easier to compare, as he doesn’t/didn’t have the glove rep that Ashburn did, and is a very similar player. Similar, but demonstratably inferior (note I still put him on my ballot). The color line doesn’t affect him as much as it does someone like Minnie Minoso, as he was only 23 when he had his first major-league AB, and his career is even shorter than Snider’s. Thus even if you take the Ebbet’s field air out of his stats he’s still better than the other two.
Snider was creating (straight off the BBRef site) between 128-158 runs per peak season, Doby 100-120, and Ashburn 100-130 (mainly because he was much more durable than Doby, playing more than 150 games almost every year, and he deserves credit for that). For Ashburn to be equal to Snider you’d have to give him a 30 run advantage-not 30 putouts, 30 runs, which probably would be at least 50-60 more putouts once you equalize them between parks and such. I don’t buy that; in 2007, according to Hardball Times, the difference between the best and worst CFers is not 50-60 plays, but more like 25-35 (best vs. worst, not 2nd best vs. average, as there undoubtedly were worse CFers than Snider-this is the 50’s after all-Frank Baumholtz anyone?).
Actually now that I’ve done all this I am going to shift my final vote from Doby to Ashburn, mainly on the strength of the extra games played, and partly on the defense.
Average games during their first 10 full time seasons:
Ashburn: 149 (or 153, depending on whether you count his 117 game rookie campaign)
Snider 144
Doby: 138
I agree–I’d think it should be assumed that you will advance one base on a single, two on double, and if you get extra bases (or fail to get enough extra bases) that should be counted. Sometimes it won’t be fair (some doubles, there is just no fucking way to score from first base) but I think in the long run, routinely making only first-to-third on doubles should count as a sign that you’re a big, slow, dumb oaf on the basepaths, and routinely scoring from first base on doubles should count as a sign that you can fly.
For the same reason, I think “errors” need to count in OBP: how many times have you seen an infielder botch a grounder but recover to throw out a big, slow, dumb oaf by three steps anyway? With a speedster, he often doesn’t even bother to throw–and that base should be credited to the speedster’s record, IMO. Instead, it just goes down as him making an out.
John: As I noted earlier, there’s census evidence that Doby is actually 4 years older than generally thought…which means he was 27, and in his peak years, during his rookie season in the AL.
In my opinion, gonzomax is right that Wilson had more than one great season, but Southern Yankee is right that he shouldn’t be considered one of the top ten (or fifteen) major league centerfielders of all time.
Hmm. Minoso on the other hand is apparently younger than they thought at the time (26 vs. 29), so I find Doby’s birthdate being in error in the other direction a bit odd, tho not unprecedented (Miguel Tejada is a recent example of such a case). According to Wikipedia, the evidence is not conclusive.
Richie Ashburn
Ty Cobb
Joe DiMaggio
Curt Flood
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Billy Hamilton
Fred Lynn
Mickey Mantle
Willie Mays
Tris Speaker
One short this time, unless I can make a tough decision later.
Oddly enough, Flood is the sentimental choice this time, considering that I’ve been hearing entirely too much argument about Edmonds here in St. Louis this year now that he is with the Cubs. It didn’t seem to bother anyone while he wore a Padre uniform. Go figure.
He was a very good player, but Devon White has seasons just as good, once you account for defense and context. Curtis Granderson’s 2007 was better than any Hack Wilson season.
When Granderson came up his defense was shaky but we stuck with him figuring his speed would compensate. He is getting much better but he did not have a real good eye when he started.
