Yeah. This may bite me in year or two (especially if Donovan McNabb goes down with a big injury), but I think I’ve got enough youthful depth at RB that I could work out a trade to at least get me through a transition year.
But my team is ready to win right now, even though you put up a 24 spot on me yesterday.
You make some good points and I’m reconsidering the issue. I do think there may be a place for rewarding Leon Washington/Steve Breaston type players, but the flaws with pure return yardage may outweigh that benefit. Still, it’s not really fair to change the scoring system after the draft so this is something we can explore next offseason when proposing changes to the league. Maybe we could create a RB/WR flex position in which you could only start a player who’s listed as the #1 PR or KR on their team’s depth chart.
Wouldn’t bumping it to 1 point per 50 yards offset the “gift” of at least 20 return yards after every kickoff while still rewarding good kick returners?
I love watching a good kick return and I think it’s great we get to recognize that in this league.
Fightin’ Quakers (furt)
**
Best Picks: Anthony Gonzalez, Devin Hester, Chicago, Limas Sweed**
Working with Peyton Manning, Gonzales is pretty much a sure thing to be productive for at least the next couple of years, and could well become Indy’s de facto #1 WR as early as this year (Reggie Wayne is older than people generally realize, turning 31 in November); once Manning is gone, he’s still a young WR with 1st Round pedigree. Hester showed basic competence as a WR last year, he’s one of the very few players who can count on accumulating return yards even several years down the road, and his team just imported a 26 year old, 4500-yard season franchise QB. In a league where you want to hold on to your Defenses, the important thing to look for in our draft was consistency, and Chicago fits the bill (top 10 for six straight seasons according to DVOA). Sweed is just one of the better lottery tickets you could have had in the 20th Round.
Worst Picks: MJD, Nate Kaeding, QB situation, DEF situation.
I like Jones-Drew, and so does FO, but he just seems to have too many question marks to take #1 overall in a dynasty league (basically, he’s 5’7" and he’s never rushed for more 941 yards). In this case I think doing the obvious thing and drafting ADP would have been right. I can’t knock you too much for Kaeding since I think he was the right Kicker to take and he could easily have another 10 or more years in him, but the 13th is too early for a Kicker: there’s just too much year-to-year variance in the performance of field-goal kickers. The biggest problem here is your QBs, though. Again, I like both Campbell and Kolb more than most (I’m assuming that Josh Freeman is Bust City), but even if Campbell takes a big step forward he probably won’t be a great *fantasy *QB, and didn’t leave leave yourself a whole lot of upside at the position. I like the Chicago pick, but there’s no excuse not to have a 2nd DEF on your roster.
Near-term prospects: Decent. Campbell won’t be bad this year, MJD and Ronnie Brown are one of the better RB tandems in the league, and Gonzalez/Hester/Sproles should pump an acceptable number of points into your other positions. And you have a good Kicker.
Long-term prospects: If it weren’t for the QBs, I’d say Really Good. There’s a lot of young, currently productive talent, and also a lot high-upside guys (Stewart, Mendenhall, Austin, Maclin, Crabtree, etc.). It’s just way too likely, however, that Campbell won’t pan out like you need him to, and you’ll have to either live with the 10th best QB production, or expend a lot of resources to upgrade the position.
**
9 Inch Neils (RNATB)**
Best Picks: Brandon Marshall, Matt Schaub, Carson Palmer, Fred Taylor, PHI/WAS/TB.
Yes Brandon Marshall is insane, but lots of mental defectives of one stripe or another have had wonderful NFL careers – Terrel Owens is headed to the Hall of Fame, for crying out loud. More significantly, Marshal is a 25 year old who’s had 2,600 receiving yards the last two years. As long as he doesn’t pull a Ray Carruth, he’s a good enough bet to be a superstar to justify a late-3rd Round selection. As for the QBs, at least one of Schaub/Palmer should stay healthy and be productive. Both are extremely talented with good offenses around them. Schaub, in particular, might get to spend the next four or five years throwing to Owen Daniels and Andre Johnson. If so, the sky’s the limit. Taylor just has the one year in him, at most, but with the 254th pick, it’s more than worth it to see whether he gets a lot of touches in an excellent offense.
I also like what you did with your Defenses. They’re mostly not the ones I would have picked, but all three of them have been average-to-good for a long time now, which should give you a great ability to play matchups for the next few years.
Worst Picks: Michael Turner, DeSean Jackson, Larry Johnson, Mason Crosby.
You implied during the draft that Turner was an accidental pick, and that you meant to take Peterson. I would hope so. Says Mike Tanier here: “If you don’t believe the Curse of 370, think it’s sloppy research or that our puny stats can’t measure the heart of a competitor, fine. But are you sure you want to make Turner your object lesson? A player who had one great year on a worst-to-first Cinderella team? A player with a great (though currently injured) backup in Jerious Norwood? A running back with no receiving value, which will take him out of some games when the Falcons fall behind? A player whose team acquired Tony Gonzalez, a great goal-line receiver who could leech five touchdowns from Turner just by being himself?”
Vincent Jackson was taken just three picks after Brandon Marshall, but is not nearly as good a gamble. Though he should be a fine, productive WR for the next several years, I think there are just too many upside issues to take him where you did; Rivers, McFadden, or Moreno would have been better. LJ is almost 30, disliked, unhappy, declining, and on a lousy team. The very next pick after him was Donald Brown to Hamlet, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Brown out-points Johnson this year and every year hence. [Insert standard Kicker complaint.]
**Near-term prospects: ** Good. I like your QB situation this year. Between Turner, K. Smith, LJ, Benson, F. Taylor, and Edge, you really should be able to squeeze out at least two good starting RBs. If you handle the matchups correctly, I imagine you’ll get more value out of the DEF position this year than all but one or two other teams. The WRs are just ok on balance, but if the other positions pan out like I expect them to that shouldn’t get in your way.
**Long-term prospects: ** Not so good. You only drafted the two QBs, so if one of Schaub/Palmer can’t stay both healthy and good (which is a real possibility), your team has a very serious problem for the next few years. Turner is already 27, so even if last year’s workload is a complete non-issue he could start to decline within a year or two, which means he’s not the best franchise building-block. Kevin Smith has some real upside, but other than him there just aren’t any good RB prospects on the team, just a lot of guys who *might *be able to help for the next one or two years. Your long-term strength, ironically, is your WRs, where you have three good, young players.
What’s wrong with DeSean Jackson?
The ‘Curse of 370’ is a myth, and you rely way too much on Football Outsiders.
It does bother me a little bit that Turner doesn’t catch passes, but only a little. He’s bound to improve in that area this year (could hardly get worse), and teams are not going to be able to key on the run this year the way the did last with the addition of Gonzalez and the maturation of Ryan.
Remember, Turner has just one sub-50 yard game last year, and it was against Tampa in Week 2, in Tampa, when the Bucs’ defense was still fresh and dominant.
The only other back I considered (aside from Peterson, of course) was DeAngelo Williams, who was curiously pedestrian during the first half of the season and only became a true stud around Week 10.
CuteWiddleBunny(Hmlt
Best Picks: Adrian Peterson, Philip Rivers, Donald Brown
ADP at #3 = horseshoes wedged firmly up your ass. He’s on track for a HOF career, and he’s just 25. Rivers is a guy who can give you above-average or better production from your QB spot for the next four or five years. Brown, I think, was an absolute steal in the 6th: that’s who I should’ve taken 12 picks earlier instead of Greg Olsen.
Worst Picks: Steve Smith [CAR], Chad Ochocinco, Tim Hightower.
I know you said you were more concerned with winning this season than myself and some others, but I think that Smith and 85, in the 2nd and 5th Rounds, are cases of just not paying enough attention to the long-term. The two are 30 and 31, respectively, but the problem isn’t their ages per se, it’s that, when each was taken, there were other WRs available whose expected value *this *year is only slightly worse, but who are extremely likely to give you a lot more value in years 2-5. So, instead of Smith, Roddy White or Dwayne Bowe; instead of 85, DeSean Jackson, Donnie Avery, or Santonio Holmes (who, BTW, put up 131/1 for me last night). As for Hightower, the main problem with him is that he was *horrible *last year, and though he’s nominally a starter now, they already drafted his replacement in the 1st Round. Best case scenario is he continues to TD vulture for a couple more seasons. There were much better long-shots to gamble on in the 10th.
Near-term prospects: Excellent. You drafted for near-term value, and you got it. The only problem is the lack of a 3rd WR who we know will put up good numbers: if 85 fails to bounce back and Percy Harvin puts up typical rookie numbers, you’ll have a big hole.
Long-term prospects: Just ok. Smith, 85, and Thomas Jones are right up against their expiration date and what you have waiting in the wings for the two starters most likely fall off a cliff is really underwhelming. I’m also skeptical of Ryan Grant’s long-term prospects, but that might just be me.
I think the idea gets discredited by reasonable minded people simply because it’s referred to as a “curse” which makes it seem somehow mystical and inevitable, and reasonable people automatically scoff at the term.
I think it’s more reasonable just to say “unusual circumstances lead to a freakishly huge workload, and for various reasons, that workload won’t happen next year and hence his production will drop” - in this case an improving QB that throws more, Gonzalez becoming a bigger part of the passing game, possibly more integration of the backups into the running game (especially with a talent like Norwood) in order to reduce the injury risk, etc.
It’s similar to the Madden curse idiots - at first they’d say “they put X player on the cover, and 3 weeks later his arm fell of!” but eventually when nothing happened to the star player except they didn’t repeat their exceptional performance, they’d say “see! Madden curse! His numbers dropped this year!” - well duh, you have to have an unusually good year to make the Madden cover, so it’s not surprising that you regress from that high.
That was an editing mistake. I thought he was the 4th Rounder, then saw he wasn’t and wrote about Vincent Jackson instead, but I guess I forgot to change the names in the heading.
Possibly, but what are the alternatives? I can’t watch every game to build my own scouting reports. Anyway, the linked article makes some fair points, especially about the “curse” being in large part simple regression to the mean, but for our purposes that doesn’t really change anything, as Turner is still in line for a big 'ole regression. It’s not like he has a long track record that proves last year was his expected level of performance. Moreover, on a per-carry basis, his results weren’t much better than league average; his main virtue was his ability to carry the ball a shit-load of times while staying healthy and pretty effective. If Atlanta regresses somewhat, they won’t run the ball as much and Turner’s numbers will be good but not great. If Atlanta regresses somewhat *and *Turner suffers even a slight decline in effectiveness – due to overuse or any other reason – his numbers will be pretty average.
These take a little longer than I anticipated. Anyone feel like doing a few of the teams at the end?
Deliverance (The Mad Hermit)
Best Picks: Roethlisberger/Cassel, Wes Welker, Kevin Faulk
You got young starters at Quarterback, one of whom has a great track record and runs an offense that seems more pass-oriented every year. I half expected to wind up taking Roethlisberger myself. My only concern would be Roethlisberger’s propensity for taking sacks (at -0.5 per). With the half point per reception, there’s no reason Welker can’t be expected to be a top 10 WR for the next three or even four years; he won’t explode and start putting up Larry Fitzgerald numbers, but he’s a very safe investment. An entry into the New England RB lottery with the 280th pick? Good deal.
Worst Picks: Clinton Portis, Terrell Owens, Hines Ward
MY bias for younger players here clearly plays a roll in my judgement. Still, I think with Kevin Smith/Ronnie Brown in the 2nd you don’t give up much at all this year, but you gain a ton in future years as compared to Portis. I’d say basically the same about Ward as compared to Avery/Holmes. Owens, however, I don’t even like this year. He’s not just aging, but rather actually old (turns 36 in December). He wasn’t very good last year, and he’s going from a good offense to a poor one. I’d personally be surprised if he breaks 1,000 yards in '09. Should’ve taken Braylon Edwards instead.
Near-term prospects: Competitive, and can be in the mix for a championship if everything breaks right (i.e., Portis doesn’t decline, DeAngelo and Addai remain true starters, and at least one of Roethlisberger/Cassel improves on last year’s performance – all of these are entirely possible).
Long-term prospects: I’m less than sanguine. I don’t like most of your lottery tickets, and too many of your high-round picks appear to be on the downside of their careers.
By the way, I should clarify something for RNATB: I only put Turner on the “worst picks” list because Peterson was available. If he wasn’t, Turner wouldn’t be my pick, but he’s hardly unreasonable.
That’s pretty much my thought. I’ll be perfectly happy with 1500 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Fair enough, then- and I absolutely would have taken Peterson had I not screwed up.
Doing this in the style of VarlosZ’s ratings, from the bottom up:
Warner’s Brothers (dalej42)
Best Picks: Steve Breaston, Visanthe Shiancoe, Ladell Betts
Brees and Andre Johnson are solid picks, about where you’d expect them to go. Brees is still young enough to have at least 3 or 4 good years in him, and Johnson is only 28 (IIRC), same with Boldin, although he has more wear and tear on his body.
Wells could be a great pick if he flourishes, but it’s hard to rate an unknown taken with the 4th pick as a great pick. I’m high on Breaston because he’s talented, he may get traded to another team and become the feature of an offense, and if not, he’ll be a consistent producer of enough receiving yards and return yards to be worth starting.
Betts isn’t that young, but they’re trying to spread the workload around a bit more in Washington. If Portis gets hurt, Betts will see a lot of production.
Shiancoe is a talented pass catcher and Favre targets his TEs over 100 times a year on average. I could see him finishing top 5, and he’s young.
Worst picks: Willie Parker, Jamal Lewis, Kellen Winslow
Lewis is done. You may get a 600 yard season out of him this year, and it’ll be his last. Way better value available at pick 8. Willie Parker doesn’t seem like he’s part of the long term plans of Pittsburgh and they’re a team that’s not going to have much of a running game with their terrible O-line. He probably won’t be that productive this year, and he doesn’t have much of a future - much better places to go with your fifth pick. Winslow I love, but the guy lives in one story houses so that he doesn’t have to use his knees to climb stairs. He gives it his all, but his health isn’t going to hold up long term. You could snag an up and coming TE there.
Near-term prospects: Your starters at QB and WR will keep you in every games this year. Your team really needs Beanie Wells to take off early on, or your running game is going to be very weak. You can get away in our league with playing 2 RBs and 4 WRs, and I think you may end up doing that a lot… which means unsteady production and luck will play a big role for you in any given week.
Long-term prospects: Your top 3 are young enough that barring injury they’ll be studs for the next 2 years. There aren’t enough young players with upside for my liking. Even if Wells matures, there doesn’t seem to be a young potential stud RB on your roster, and your RB2 slot is going to be a perpetual weakness. Going a different direction than Parker/Lewis would’ve made this team’s prospects a lot stronger.
We Do HGH (Stringer)
Best Picks: Matt Forte, Jay Cutler, Heath Miller, Laurent Robinson
Actually, a hard list to put together – it could easily be larger or smaller, since you’ve got a lot guys who weren’t exactly great values, but who nonetheless went where they were supposed to and were totally logical picks. You also seemed to snag the last guy before a big drop-off on a number of occasions.
Anyway, Forte is a great value there. It’s not like you had a real choice as to whether or not to take him, but he’s too good not to mention: one of the very few pure starters, playing every down, and in just his second season; I had him #2 on my board. I was going to pick Cutler five picks after you, as a proven young QB who throws for a ton of yards is exactly what this draft called for, and if you didn’t nab Cutler (or Ryan) where you did, there’s a really huge drop off in the remaining QB options: McNabb (old), Eli (fantasy production just ok, and not likely to improve at his age), Schaub (might never be able to stay healthy, and two years older), Roethlisberger (also injury issues, and takes a lot of sacks), etc. For wating so long to take a TE, you got a nice, dependable one in Miller (though you could’ve used a backup/developmental project to go along with him). Laurent Robinson might be one of the biggest late-round steals: already a starter, and just 24 years old despite two years of NFL experience. Caught 5 for 87 yesterday.
Worst Picks: Reggie Wayne, Marshawn Lynch, Earnest Graham
The first two aren’t all that bad, but were still IMO demonstrably sub-optimal. Wayne is older than most people realize, turning 31 in November, and to take him over the younger alternatives (Roddy White, Kevin Smith, Ronnie Brown, etc.), I think he’d need to be coming off of a great year instead of merely a good one (1150/6). Marshawn Lynch just wasn’t very good last year, was outplayed by his backup, has a history of character issues that could lead to more suspensions, is on a lousy offense that looks to be more than one year from improving, and is one of the ugliest human beings alive. As I said, it’s not that bad of a pick, as there are legitimate arguments in his favor at this point in the draft, but I think you’d have been better off taking a chance on a different young back (McFadden, Moreno). Even as the 137th pick, Graham is a reach. A crowded backfield on a non-explosive offense, and he’s already past his prime (29 years old). He had 1 carry and 0 catches yesterday. You’ll release him by this season’s mid-point, which is a big waste considering all the promising youngsters or productive veterans you could have had with that pick.
Near-term prospects: It’ll all depend on which Cutler you get. If it’s the guy from last year or someone within sniffing distance, then you’ve got a good team that should be in the playoff hunt this year and the next. If it’s the guy from last night, or even a guy who’s just putting up, say, Eli Manning numbers, I don’t think the rest of the team is strong enough to carry you. Your bench is pretty weak this year, and your defenses are mediocre (and each, in fact, has the potential to be terrible this year).
Long-term prospects: Better than the near-term prospects. Your bench is so weak because it’s young, as is your roster in general. Wayne is the only major contributor that you’re going to lose to age in the next few years, and even he could easily be productive (or better) for three or even four years. My only complaint would be that you should’ve gotten at least one QB prospect in case there’s something in the water in Chicago that causes Cutler to be merely passable – Garrard and Shaun Hill are fine for byes, injuries, or the occasional game against Detroit, but that’s all they’re giving you.
Some MNF matchups tonight
SenorBeef needs Randy Moss and Zach Miller to overtake an 8 point gap plus whatever Tomlinson and McFadden score (long shot) to beat Petey
Furt needs Sproles and Kaeding to make up a 2 point gap plus what Gates scores to beat Ellis Dee
Mad Hermit to overcome a 16 point gap, an invisible kicker, and the Patriots D with Owens and Welker to beat Stringer
Justin Bailey needs 2 and a half points from Gostkowski to beat Varlos
9 Inch Neils need Fred Taylor and Vincent Jackson to score… well, nothing, actually. I just need them not to fumble twice.
Might want to look again Mr. Beef. I’m beating Varlos by 2.5 points and he has no one playing tonight. So unless Gostkowski misses every field goal, I’ve got my first W of the season.
Woops, looks like I got you guys reversed.
It would be a funny way to lose though, wouldn’t it?
I think even better would be if he missed a FG or two and then threw an interception on a fake FG attempt for the “winning” points.
Petey is slowly inching towards me. Need 6 points with 16 minutes to go. What a crappy first week for me.
FUMBLE TIME
