SDMB Fantasy Football DYNASTY League: Year 13

You know what, fair. I have no idea what kind of production I can expect from nearly half my team and it’s probably going to kill me this year.

I traded for Kenyan Drake under the assumption he was a starter on the rise. Instead, he’s in some kind bizarre committee in Las Vegas. Chase Claypool might be the third option behind JuJu and Diontae Johnson, but he might not be. Jamaal Williams is a great flex (I think he’ll continue what he did in Green Bay), but he could be more. I just don’t know about any of them.

And I probably should have reached for Mac Jones in the second round this year.

I know I’ve pointed this out elsewhere, but it is nearly impossible to get a stud RB without an early pick. Kamara (pick #11) and Aaron Jones (#30) are the only top 9 RBs who weren’t a top 10 pick. And of the top 20 RBs going into this year, there are only 2 who were not drafted (my Austin Ekeler and Chris Carson) and only 6 that weren’t a top 7 draft pick. It’s a rough go without high picks.

A few years back, RNATB forever stole Tyreek Hill from me by outbidding me by $2 FAAB dollars.

It has taken years, but I have finally exacted my revenge:

Matt Gay LAR - K
$1 Winning Offer

Nine Inch Neils $0 (Lower Offer)

Awarded To:
Exploding Pancakes Sep 10,12:18 am

I guess I have to go get Fournette so I can trade him for Matt Gay, now.

Rebuilding since 2010. I adopted a team in year 2 that was both bad (second worst record) and very old (if there was a youth score back then it would have been ugly). I also didn’t have the benefit of participating in that original draft to set up my team for the future. Every draft since has had me feeling like the little Dutch boy.

Ever since that first draft, the QB position has been a garbage fire. My inherited QB was Big Ben, who at the time, was suspended due to a rape allegation. It seemed unlikely that he’d have a long career between that and the consistent abuse he took. My backup was Matt Cassel, fresh off an atrocious first year in KC. That first year I carried 5 QBs and added another from the waiver wire (Tyler Thigpen!). I later traded away Big Ben once I spent early first round picks on Andrew Luck and Blake Bortles (sigh) and took a flyer on Tyrell Pryor. We know how that turned out. Of course I pulled a Pace and totally gagged on the Trubisky pick the following season. But hey, at least I didn’t draft Kizer. Needless to say, this instability has cost me a lot of opportunities to bolster my other positions.

And then this year, when there’s a bunch of great QB prospects, I go and miraculously make a playoff appearance…somehow. Talk about shooting myself in the foot. I knew damn well that I had no real chance to win the title. So here I sit, completely without a QB and watching 8 picks come off the board before I get a chance to pick someone to throw the rock. I had Fields as the top QB on my board. He was the 5th drafted and the Bears are where QBs go to die…fully aware of all of this, but even if Fields isn’t a super-elite passer in the NFL I think he’ll be a fantasy stud for a while. Running QBs are really valuable even on mediocre teams and I think Fields, at worst, will be a more durable Kyler Murray.

I don’t love Lawrence as a fantasy prospect. I know all the stats and the tape, but he reminds me a lot of Luck. An excellent passer who will probably be a winning QB someday, but a guy who will take a beating early on and whose fantasy stat line will be pedestrian. Even when things start to come together he’ll have a lot of 275 yard, 2 TD games and not a lot of 450 yard, 4 TD games. He might win those games, but there’s no fantasy points for wins. I kind of feel the same about Zach Wilson. Even is if he’s not a bust (I lean that way after watching him in the preseason) he doesn’t look like a high-volume passer or runner. As someone who drafted Drew Lock…I see some similarities.

If someone had taken Fields before me, after committing seppuku, I would have drafted Mac Jones in the first round. I needed a week 1 starter and I like Jones quite a bit. I’m not sure he’ll win you a fantasy league title either, but I love his situation and he feels like a really high floor guy. Trey Lance is the guy I have no feel for. Maybe I’ll look back in four years and realize that I missed on Mahomes 2.0 after overdrafting a Bears QB…again.

I wasn’t exactly inspired by owning CEH last season. I really hope he pans out, because it will have sucked to have wasted my first ever #1 overall pick. Let’s pray that he was just dinged up and struggled a little learning Reid’s system, we know the talent is there. Gibson should be a mainstay, knock wood. Would it be completely shocking if Michel had a breakout in LA now that he’s free from the quagmire in NE? I mean is he really that much worse than what the Rams have been throwing out there the last couple seasons? Anyways. like everyone else I’ll be farming the waiver wire for RB depth and an injury could sink me. And you didn’t hear it from me, but I would not be at all shocked if Herbert stole Montgomery’s job before the end of the season.

Things couldn’t have gone worse this offseason for my once stellar WR corps. I refused to sell Julio cheap over the last several seasons and unfortunately it looks like he’s aging like milk. I’m telling myself that it was just his frustration a spending an entire career in Atlanta holding him back and the fresh scenery in Tennessee will be rejuvenating. But he’s also clearly the #2…which maybe could be good if he’s tearing up the defense’s second best cover guy…or it could just be he’ll see half the targets. Galloway was the guy I expected to be my workhorse for years to come and then he got banished to the Giants, an offense I’ve been avoiding like the plague in fantasy for almost a decade. Danny Dimes will crush his value, and of course I took a second Giants WR in Toney. Kill me now. Theilen should remain a reliable points getter for a little while, but odds are good that this is Cousin’s last season in Minny. Who knows what happens to this passing game next year. Woods gets a QB upgrade which should make him more productive, but it definitely adds uncertainty. Lastly Callaway was a great stash and a guy who should scoop up a lot of Thomas’ production, but that all assumes Jameis can run Payton’s offense a tiny bit. The wheels might come off completely here…

Anyways, enough rambling. I can only hope that Fields is everything he’s hyped to be so that I can maybe stop drafting for need in the years to come. I’m gonna need it.

In case anyone is interested, there’s still a chance to sign up for the pick 'em and survival leagues before the games kick off.

All the talk about Fitzpatrick and he’s already with an injury, return is questionable.

Even though I won that week, I’ll still never forget playing a matchup without a QB, revenge will come.

Well Ellis, I tried to engineer you a win by trading an imploding Aaron Rodgers to Jules, but Tyreek Hill undid that damage.

I have no idea how Daniel Jones scored 23 fantasy points. He looked bad out there. Like, QB controversy with Mike Glennon by week 4 bad. “Incompetent” was the word that came to mind in the second half when he gave up throwing completely and just started running every play. The few passes he threw during that stretch were both wildly off target and also lame ducks. All game long he couldn’t throw 3 yard dumpoffs; he’d drill them straight into the dirt at the back’s feet.

And good lord Barkley looked off. Tentative if not full-on scared. No vision, no moves, nothing. I’m gonna write this game off as returning jitters, but if he doesn’t look markedly better next game, I don’t know. This season may already be over for Big Blue.

As for fantasy, I will likely lose but at least I put up some points. It was really fun getting to watch Panthers @ Jets from a fantasy perspective. Pretty psyched I let Jules add Davis to the trade! Then during the late game debacle – while watching smoke come out of Daniel Jones’ ears as he struggled to remember how to throw a football – I found myself wondering how my fantasy results would compare if I didn’t make that trade. The trade impacted six of my starters.

Re-arranging the starters I did and would have played into points scored order for easier comparison:

Pos Before After
RB1 23.20 Christian McCaffrey 23.00 Joe Mixon
RB2 4.60 Javonte Williams 3.20 Saquon Barkley
WR1 20.80 Sterling Shepard 24.20 Corey Davis
WR2 16.90 Jarvis Landry 12.76 DJ Moore
W/R -0.60 Ronald Jones 4.40 Michael Pittman
W/T 21.70 TJ Hockenson MNF Marquise Brown
Total 86.60 67.56 + Brown

(Without the trade I would have drafted Javonte Williams at 1.04 and started him as my #2. I probably would have slotted Ronald Jones in at W/R over Pittman, but I am or at least was really high on Pittman. Less so now, of course.)

Figure 10+ points worse for wear from the trade assuming Brown can manage the 8-12 point range. Sadly, I still have Landry and Shepard on the team. I just didn’t start them. I 100% would have, though.

The key difference is that before, when I chose wrong and left 20+ scorers on the bench, my weekly score would be in the 70-80 range. Now I left several high scorers on the bench – because that’s my thing – but I still scored 119.01 + Brown. That’s much better, at least.

EDIT: Not related to the trade, pretty annoyed that of course Mayfield only scored 14.85 compared to first-half-wonder Darnold’s 21.35 and deer-in-the-headlights Jones’ 23.05. WTF did I start Mayfield?! Gah!

And yahoo projections led me way astray on D/ST, convincing me that the Giants could stop the Broncos better than the Steelers could stop the Bills. I ended up leaving 10 extra points on the bench at both the QB and D/ST positions.

Despite scoring the most fantasy points this week from my QB stable, I don’t think I can in good conscience start Jones. I think I may have to start Darnold.

I strongly considered benching the Bears D and going with no D this week. Of course they went and put up -3. Hopefully tomorrow night Andrews can score enough to render it moot.

Re-Petey, I would like to welcome you to our league and our division with the first of the losses that I plan to hand you for hopefully a long time to come.

I rksed OBJ in a late game even though he was 50/50 about starting. I should’ve plugged Chark in there and I’d have had the highest score this week at about 160. Ah well.

Glad to see David Montgomery is looking like 2020 2nd half David Montgomery instead of the first half of 2020 version.

Deebo Samuel - 189 yards and a TD. I like that. I was worried Aiyuk was going to make him unimportant but maybe he’s gonna be my dude.

I had totally forgotten about that. I thought I drafted Hill for some reason.

So I’m a 49ers fan, and I mistakenly mentioned to Jules that I noticed Trey Sermon was a healthy scratch 90 minutes before the game. And then I forgot to pick up Elijah Mitchell, so he did. Your 2021 Peteys everybody!

I think I may have made a mistake to try to compete this year instead of going full rebuild. Unless Aaron Jones, Tyler Lockett, and Adam Thielen get hurt of course. Here’s shooting for a .500 record.

Also, I typically don’t have time to make super detailed posts about every person on my or anybody else’s roster or matchup, between work, taking care of my son, my other (money) fantasy league, and of course, gambling! Sports gambling was just legalized in my state, and I had a decent first weekend betting on the NFL (only because the niners barely covered for me).

That being said, I won’t be completely MIA off the boards and should be chiming in weekly with relatively short, innocuous, and unfunny posts.

Let’s see if the Ravens can win tonight, winning me two more parlays. Let’s go Latavious Murray!

Marquise Brown making a game of it. Early in the third quarter and Brown – currently 4 for 52 with 1 TD – needs to outscore the opposing kicker for the rest of the game by 4.95 to give me the upset win over Jules.

To be fair, I would have noticed and done the same moves. I like Sermon a lot, but Elijah Mitchell was also on my late pick list. I just ended up not having a 3rd to grab him with, and different opportunities came up later. Mitchell seemed like an Eno Benjamin to me–very talented, but might not be active as a numbers game casualty. When he was active over Sermon, I had to move. The opportunity was there. And now Mostert is out 6-8 weeks, so. That might work out.

This MNF game is coming down to the final drive. A shot play to Hollywood, or a couple dump offs, and I will end up losing. Getting real tense!

That was one of the wildest games I’ve seen in a long time. I really thought the OT would doom me into giving hollywood another shot at a bomb TD. I can’t believe how it turned out

Yeah, I was shouting “Miss it! Miss it!” for the Ravens kicker at the end because I wanted OT, but when he made it I had to root for your kicker to tie it up because that was my only chance. But alas it had turned into a FG battle so I was doomed.

Silver-lining, I lost by 4.