Done.
Hamlet has won his division and is guaranteed to make the playoffs.
The other races are pretty tight. I’m tied with Petey in wins though he has a 2 game divisional record lead on me. I play him on the last game of the year and it may end up being what decides the division.
Ellis is one win ahead of Jules as well as a one game lead in division record. They also play in the last week, and that game may also determine who wins that division.
The wildcard race would be with whoever lost those division races. Peteys currently has a significant edge in points scored. I’m 17 points behind Jules but 16 points ahead of Ellis. I’ll run the full scenarios next week.
Unexpected week for the leading playoff teams. Jules, Peteys, Ellis are all going to lose. Hamlet is a 70/30 underdog. I’m a moderate favorite in my game right now. I don’t actually think this changes the situation much except it helps my playoff chances (if I win). It gives me a win-and-in chance to win the division against Petey. I think it gives RNATB an outside chance at the wildcard but he’d have to score a lot of points next week. It’s a rough deal for Petey because he’s going to score 130+ and lose. He still has a pretty good shot at making the playoffs (either division or wildcard), but he could pull that little trick like he did last year of scoring the most and missing the playoffs.
Weird season without a real dominant team.
What the Vikings QBs have done to my former best asset Justin Jefferson should be considered a war crime.
I have a reasonable chance of scoring the second most points and missing the playoffs. I don’t see how I can outscore RyPetey for the wildcard unless his team absolutely shits the need.
Hamlet has won his division and will be in the playoffs. The other 3 slots will go to Ellis Dee, Jules, SenorBeef, Peteys, or RNATB.
Whoever wins the Ellis/Jules game wins the division and is in the playoffs.
Whoever wins the Beef/Peteys game wins the division and is in the playoffs.
Wildcard scenarios:
Ellis Dee: If Ellis loses, ends up 9-5. If Peteys wins, Ellis needs to outscore Beef by 36 points to take the wildcard. If Beef wins, would have to outscore Peteys by like 160.
Beef: Loses, ends up 9-5. If Jules wins, Beef just has to score not let Ellis score more than 36 points more than him. If Ellis wins, Beef needs to outscore Jules by 10 points.
Jules: If he loses: If Beef wins, would have to outscore Peteys by 112 points. So practically impossible, he really needs to win this week.
RNATB: Needs to win this week, have Beef win, and outscore Peteys by 43 points.
Ignoring the projected points this week and just looking at this scenario wise, I think I’ve got the most routes to the playoffs. I’m in if I win and even if I lose I have fairly achievable metrics to meet whether Jules or Ellis wins. Jules really needs to win his game. RNATB is a long shot but not exceptionally so, he’s probably got somewhere around a 5-10% chance (number pulled out of my ass) of making it – a big game for him and a bad game for Petey would do it.
Oof, the ~30 points I missed out on by my roster fuckups those two weeks are looking like they may come back to bite me in the ass.
Since @SenorBeef mentioned my season, I’ve gone 1-4, had all 5 opponents score at least 118 points, and lost 2 players to season ending injuries.
Thanks again, @SenorBeef. I’ll be saving a a special place in fantasy football hell for you.
Ended up not really mattering since you’re safely in the playoffs and I’m not sure seeding will end up having any advantage this year, we’re all pretty close.
I can’t believe I’m still mathematically alive. I need to outscore Petey 2 by about 43, do I’m not holding my breath. Two of the three top scorers will probably miss the playoffs.
Yahoo is overprojecting me this week. There’s no way BTJ for 11.37 is a realistic projection - he may hit that score but he’s only hit that score once all season, you certainly can’t project him there.
Kyle Pitts at 9.79? Nope. Even though Seattle is a bad TE defense, you’re basically projecting him at his high score for the season which is silly.
Deebo at 12 against Minnesota is a little generous but within reason.
On the other hand, Denver D vs Las Vegas at 10.29 may be conservative.
I really need Josh Allen to randomly put up one of his 35+ point games or for Petey’s team to shit the bed, because although I’m a 58/42 projected lead right now (Thank you beautiful Brandon Aubrey), that’s with unrealistically rosy projections.
I didn’t realize the Buffalo game was going to be a blizzard game. That puts a cap on Josh Allen’s productivity though maybe he’ll still get a rushing TD or two.
Josh Allen is God’s most magnificent creation
I miscalculated the playoff scenarios I posted a few posts ago, I think. If I win, and Jules wins then Jules and Ellis both finish with 9 wins and re-Peteys only has 8 wins, then Jules would win the division and Ellis gets the wildcard. In my calculations above for some reason I thought Ellis and Peteys would have the same record.
The matchups are still remarkably close going into MNF. Peteys needs 16 points from AJ Brown to beat me and win the division.
Ellis needs Saquan Barkley to outscore Devonta Smith and the Philly D by 4.01 points to beat Jules.
If I put up 146 points this week and somehow missed the playoffs I would be annoyed but I’m pretty sure I’m practically guaranteed a spot at this point. Either I straight up win my game, or even if Jules wins (I tie Ellis at 9-5 and outscore him significantly) or Ellis Wins (I have at least one win over Jules) I’ve still got the wildcard.
Really all that’s left to play for is to see if re-Peteys, Jules, or Ellis is the odd one out.
Fuckin DJ Moore is so worthless. He was good in Carolina with no quarterback at all, but in Chicago he sucks so hard. Good thing I didn’t start Blake Corum at w/r because those 25 points would have been horrible compared to DJ Moore’s 0.10. Grrr!
I have a real shot of winning the scoring title and missing the playoffs, WHICH HAS ALREADY HAPPENED TO ME ONCE BEFORE!
AJ Brown can prevent this.
Well this has certainly been a dramatic finish for both games. AJ Brown barely dropped a TD that would’ve given Petey the win.
Well, shit. Overtime is not good for me.