4th highest scoring fantasy QB in the league last year. But sure, he’s a backup…
And ranked 15th according to NFL.com. Good luck with that.
I suspect you don’t understand how a dynasty league works. Do you think Drew Brees is more valuable to have here than Blake Bortles? You probably shouldn’t go stomping around telling people how wrong they are about something you don’t understand.
Yeah, I get the whole long-term thing. Brees is heading for retirement in not too overly long, and Bortles is a kid in comparison. But I also wouldn’t even think about dumping a RB1 or WR1 for him, especially based on one year’s production.
Brees is a couple years younger than Tom Brady, both of whom outperformed Bortles and have yet to slow down much at all. And I simply don’t see Bortles’ performance last year as much more of a nice confluence of having a poor defense that led to a ton of passing, a very good WR who can catch his errant throws, and a poor red zone running game. I don’t every see him matching his fantasy performance (and lets be clear, it was a very good fantasy year, not a very good NFL QB year for him) from last year ever again. I don’t think it’s insane to expect Brees to outperform Bortles from here on out.
Here on out… until…?
I thought the example I used was pretty extreme but I’m surprised to find out there’s someone who wouldn’t trade Brees straight up for Bortles. What’s changed in Bortle’s fantasy situation that he won’t put up a similarly good year? And how many more years does Brees have at a top 10 level?
I would take a couple years of elite scoring and retirement over five years of 8-12 ranked QB performance (which is about where I think Bortles can be at if he reigns in the int’s and stays a starter). Guys who were picked off the scrap heap, like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kirk Cousins, and Carson Palmer were within 15 points of Borle’s production last season. Even perenially average fantasy QB Phillip Rives was only 16 points behind.
As I pointed out in my last post, to me it’s about replacement level. I think I can find a QB who will be on par with Bortles for the rest of his career. I don’t think I can find a QB who can be elite, even if it is only for three more years.
I mean, if being within 15 points of Carson Palmer / Ryan Fitzpatrick makes him a replacement-level player, how does being 9 points ahead of him make Drew Brees elite?
There’s nothing in the short term that’s going to change Jacksonville’s situation. They’re still going to have a bad defense, they’re still going to have Allen Robinson, and they’re still going to have no red zone scoring. Maybe his year was flukey good, maybe it wasn’t. But he’s going to get better as a QB. Brees is past his peak and is unlikely to start climbing again at the age of 37. They almost tied last year, and things are on the upswing for Bortles and on the downswing for Brees.
It’s also not as easy as you seem to think to find a “replacement level” QB like Carson Palmer or Philip Rivers. The highest scoring unowned QBs last year were Blaine Gabbert and Josh McCown.
I don’t see Bortles ever replicating last years’ success. I see Brees doing it easily.
I don’t think so. I think we’ve seen the best year statistically that Bortles will ever have. He’ll regress to his mean, which is, to me in the 8-20 range with Ryan, Manning, Romo, Stafford, etc. etc. etc.
Kirk Cousins was added off waivers. Ryan Fitzpatrick was a 4th round draft pick. Tyrod Taylor was a waiver add.
And I don’t mean that Bortles is the same as a guy you can pick up off waivers. I’m saying he’s not that much better than someone you should already have on your roster.
Would you trade a stud RB/WR for Bortles?
Or to put it another way:
Name a fantasy team in our league right now whose starting QB situation would be improved enough by Bortles to justify trading away a “stud RB/WR”?
For whatever reason the QB position just doesn’t have the same value (in terms of rarity vs production) in this league.
The top 30 are owned and that is that.
I’m still cracking up at a random poster quoting freakin NFL.com’s rankings acting like he knows about fantasy.
We’ve got some slots open in The Big League if anyone would be interested in trying something different. I like to try to recruit from my other leagues first, before open sign ups, since I know you guys are reliable.
The Big League has 20 players which changes the dynamic dramatically. You’ve got to stretch the available talent further and finding sleepers is really important. it also opens up a lot of different strategies to the draft - moreso than other leagues. It’s an auction draft and people approach it with very different strategies.
Because it’s so different, yahoo’s pre-valuing system just won’t work. There’s more money chasing fewer people so the values are different. Which means you must attend the draft if you want to participate in this league. An auto-drafted team is just not viable and would disturb league balance by giving up 14 free wins.
The draft is Tuesday Sep 6 at 8:30 Eastern (may shift to 8:00 if no one objects).
If you’re interested in playing in that league this year, PM me or post in that thread and I’ll get you set up.
Please tell me you’re playing in He Hate Me, stud.
No, this is the only free league I play in, but I’ll keep an eye on where you finish this year in HHM, champ.
Ayuh. I’ll be worried about that all season long.
This is kinda the crux of what I’m getting at. If you were rolling with Cutler/Bridgewater, Brady/Bradford/Cousins or Ryan/Dalton/Osweiler last year and all the mid-level replacement guys are kept, where are you at in 2017, 2018?
Hell, even if you’re rocking Stafford, Rivers, Palmer, Eli or Flacco as your top guy you probably are going to be capped out at the QB position going forward. None of the top 4 playoff teams last year survived with a replacement level QB. You might not be desperate enough to part with a RB1, but you might be flush at WR and adding an extra 2-3 points per game at QB is a good investment. Obviously you need to see Bortles as a dynasty option who will continue to put up lots of garbage time stats well after Rivers, Eli (34) or Palmer (36) have hung it up, but that’s pretty reasonable in my book.
Of course if you’re one of these teams and drafting in the top 5 picks maybe you love Goff or Wentz and that’s a better long term strategy…but maybe not.
This is a separate debate, but I don’t see Brees coming close. New Orleans will be a garbage fire this year, and their pass catchers aren’t much to look at. His saving grace will have to be garbage time attempts, which to be fair is possible, but I think it’s likely the wheels come off.
He’s freaking 37. Peyton put up 4,727 yards in his 38 year old season, but we saw how fast that unravelled and he had way better players around him. My guess is that Brees’ “elite” status comes to an end this year…we’ll see if he gets that extension or not.
As the owner of Brees, I’d never trade him straight up for Bortles. Even though Brees is older, I agree with Hamlet, Bortles will probably never advance beyond his current statline.