So I just laid out the whole playoff picture and then realized that we have another game in the regular season this week. I got mixed up with my other leagues which started the playoffs next week. So … disregard!
We now have three playoff spots locked up with **Hamlet **joining the party. Really Not All That Bright has the first seed in the bag, so congratulations to him. There’s little intrigue at the top of the playoffs, as I’ll be facing **Hamlet **in the first round with the only question being whether I do it as the 2nd seed or 3rd. It hardly matters. Either way, it’s going to be really rough as he absolutely has the strongest team over the last month. A second straight first-round exit for the Good Guys would be disappointing, but after all the injuries this season, this could have gone so much worse
The Wild Card scenario is very interesting with four teams tied at 7-6. The storylines are pretty great, too. Two of the four teams have never made the playoffs before, while another hasn’t been there in the last three seasons. It’s unfair to really discuss **Ol’Gaffer’s **history as he only inherited part of **Stringer’s **team. But his roster was sourced from two that had a combined 11 playoff trips and 5 titles. His team was bred from the best stock.
For Omniscient, it’s win and (likely) finally make the playoffs since he has the highest season score of those in the running. However, he is the only underdog of the four, and by 14 projected points. His journey to this position is also the most improbable, as he was 3-6 a month ago, and it looked like another lost season. But among the wild card hopefuls, he has the best record in the last four weeks, and the highest average score in that time. So, he may have the most momentum, but the toughest road. Incidentally, by winning he would equal his best record in the league since joining in 2010.
The next best shot is for dalej42, who is the second of the two teams to never make the playoffs. If Omni loses, Dale is win-and-in. Otherwise, he needs to win and outscore Omni by about 7 points to break the streak. While he is a favorite against the worst team in the league, his projected score is short of Omni’s by 8, so this is going to be really, really close. He seemed like a lock a month ago at 7-2, but hasn’t won since and has the lowest average score among this grouping in that time. He may just back his way in, though he would be a significant underdog in the first round. A win this week would lock up Dale’s first winning season since 2009.
Both Gaffer and** Ellis Dee** are favorites in the final week; but, with Gaffer having a 60 point scoring advantage, he would almost certainly get in between the two. Still, Gaffer would need Omni and Dale to lose because he is at least 60 points behind either. This is an exceedingly unlikely scenario considering Dale’s opponent, but it’s possible. It’s a shame, because Gaffer was in a really strong position at 6-3 heading into the last month of the season. Since then, he’s lost 3 of the last 4, including 3 in a row, and he managed the second lowest scoring average over that time among these teams. Should he get in, his playoff projections are fairly good, so he would have a fair chance of winning it all.
Finally, Ellis would need a miracle to avoid extending his playoff drought to four seasons. Since he is behind in season scoring by at least 40 points to any of the other three teams, he would really need all three to lose. Omni is projected to, so that wouldn’t entirely be a surprise. Then Dale has to lose to a team that has one win the entire season and has topped 70 points only once in the last five weeks. Finally, Gaffer has to lose as a 26-point favorite. Even if he did pull a rabbit out of his head somehow, his playoff projections aren’t favorable, and he would be an underdog to any possible configuration of opponents, either week.
I would guess Dale gets in and breaks his streak. That would be really cool, but I would be terrified of seeing him in the championship round. The Fantasy Gods would never, ever allow me to win that matchup.
For the record, it is at least mathematically plausible for you to take the #1 seed (I lay an egg, you score a whole bunch of points). Failing that, I’m still not sure who I want to see win the wildcard (except that I’m sympathetic to dale given that his team has been our division whipping boy for years). On balance, Omni has been the most reliable in putting up points the last 5-6 weeks, so he’s probably my least-favored opponent.
In other news, I only need 40 points to top the 1811 I scored last year, which was far and away the most in the league; however, Hamlet will almost certainly wind up as the top scoring team by quite a margin.
I would say “plausible” is almost certainly the wrong word. It would take me equaling my best week this season (~182 points, which will probably end up being a top 5 all-time result), and you equaling your worst score this season (100).
But wait, there’s more! I lied, because it would then ***also ***require that between us, I gain another 30 points on you. So basically, you have your worst week in two whole seasons, and I beat the all-time single game record by about 10 points. Technically possible… But I’d say that’s a long shot
It was certainly a strong regular season for you! Not only will you eclipse your previous high, but by merely matching your season average, you would finish with the third-highest season total in the history of the league.
Hamlet, however, is pretty much guaranteed to break the all-time season scoring mark. By meeting his season average, he’d break the record by almost 30 points. It is exceedingly likely he will shatter the current record and put it nearly out of reach for everyone else. While it is a small chance, it is realistically possible that he becomes the first team to ever hit 2,000 points in the regular season. Only two (and soon to be three) teams have ever hit 1,900 points.
For myself, if i match my projection, I would pass 1,800 points in a season. That number was a mostly arbitrary benchmark I set in the records post from last year, but it’s rare enough to merit some note. Over the history of the league, it happens about one or two times a season. It was beaten twice last year, but only once in the two seasons before that. Incidentally, it is possible for **five **teams to do it this year. **Omniscient **would just make it if he meets his projection. **Dalej42 **can do it with a pretty good day, but that means beating his projection by about 30 points. Technically, **Ol’Gaffer **is in range, but he would have to just slip past the all-time scoring record to do it.
SDMB-Dynasty League - Week 13
**Rnk Week 13…Actual…Rnk Season…Actual
- Hamlet +2…162.45…01. Hamlet…1823.60
- Ellis +3…144.55…02. RNATB…1777.77
- RNATB +5…126.35…03. Omni…1671.95
- Beef +7…125.83…04. Jules…1667.02
- Overly +2…124.45…05. dale…1665.45
- dale +4…123.15…06. Gaffer…1602.88
- Jules -6…104.70…07. Retro…1577.11
- Omni -6…99.45…08. Overly…1568.90
- Gaffer -3…98.83…09. Ellis…1564.60
- Retro -6…98.05…10. Justin…1473.94
- Justin +1…88.31…11. Beef…1378.66
- Petey -3…57.67…12. Petey…1120.26**
**Rnk Week 13…Potential…Rnk Season…Potential
- Hamlet +1…188.65…01. Hamlet…2171.20
- Ellis +1…177.80…02. RNATB…2042.41
- dale +8…156.85…03. dale +2…1997.70
- RNATB +3…154.05…04. Omni -1…1993.73
- Overly +4…146.60…05. Jules +1…1961.93
- Beef -1…146.23…06. Retro -2…1957.06
- Omni -3…128.75…07. Ellis +1…1890.89
- Jules -7…121.10…08. Gaffer -1…1882.11
- Gaffer -1…118.53…09. Overly…1829.87
- Justin +2…115.41…10. Justin…1772.93
- Retro -5…112.45…11. Beef…1743.16
- Petey -2…81.69…12. Petey…1468.33**
**Rnk Week 13…Coach…Rnk Season…Coach.
- Retro +6…87% B+…01. RNATB…87% B+
- Jules +3…86% B…02. Overly…86% B
- Hamlet +8…86% B…03. Gaffer…85% B
- Beef +8…86% B…04. Jules…85% B
- Overly -3…85% B…05. Hamlet +1…84% B
- Gaffer -3…83% B…06. Omni -1…84% B
- RNATB +3…82% B-…07. dale…83% B
- Ellis +1…81% B-…08. Justin…83% B
- dale -3…79% C+…09. Ellis…83% B-
- Omni -9…77% C+…10. Retro…81% B-
- Justin -3…77% C…11. Beef…79% C+
- Petey -8…71% C-…12. Petey…76% C**
I had to bench Doug Baldwin, just too much uncertainty if he’ll play and I can’t take a chance with him on a Monday night game. Ugh, but I need to do whatever I can to get into the playoffs, that narrow loss last week really hurt
Well I’m crushing RNATB just in time for it to not matter at all to anyone.
So unless I’m missing something, this is what happened, right? Congrats Ellis on grabbing that last spot.
I can still get an amazing performance from Russell Wilson and win my matchup.
Woops, you’re right. Not actually that amazing a performance, just like 8 points over projected. Missed that one. Was focused on you gaining a point lead over Omni, but you already had one over Ellis. Sorry for the premature congratulations, we’ll see what tomorrow brings.
It’s looking like dale and I will be battling it out in the consolation bowl while Omni sneaks in for the wildcard. Technically yahoo puts me as the most likely to get the wildcard, but:
- If Adam Thielen (WR-Min) puts up 18.03 Monday night (projected 15.65), Omni gets the wildcard because he has the points tiebreaker locked up. Yahoo projects this as a 44% chance.
…otherwise…
- If Russell Wilson (QB-Sea) puts up 27.68 Monday night (projected 19.93), dale gets the wildcard because I can’t catch him in the points tiebreaker. Yahoo projects this as a 20% chance.
…otherwise…
- Ellis gets the wildcard because the Fanboys have already won this week’s game, clinching an 8-6 record.
EDIT: I think, but am not positive, that if the %s above are to be believed, the chances for each of us to make the wildcard become:
44.8% Ellis
44.0% Omni
11.2% dale
I don’t think you can have a 44.8% chance of taking the wildcard because the odds of dale winning are not dependent on the odds of Omni winning, and vice versa. But I still came up with the same odds as you when I calculated them.
It’s not the odds of winning – which are independent as you say – but rather the odds of making it to the playoffs. Dale’s odds are very much dependent on Omni’s game, because if Omni wins he’s in and dale’s out even if dale wins his game.
Ellis got it. Congrats.
- RNATB
- Jules
- Hamlet
- Ellis Dee
It is so nice not having a major injury, or an actual series of injuries, derail a promising year. Even without a top 10 RB, I’ve been able to put up the most points for the season, and I really like the balance between studs and young depth. So glad I picked up Tyler Boyd (a top 15 WR) for a song and gave up starting RB depth (Peyton Barber) and a high upside flier WR (Geronimo Allison, who went onto IR shortly after the trade. Sorry about that) for JuJu Smith Schuster. Now if Marlon Mack would only get and stay healthy and David Johnson get back to studliness, I’d be set.
But really, it’s all about Mahomes. I’ve never put a ton of stock in the QB position (hence Phillip Rivers being my standard starting QB for years), but having Mahomes is awesome. He’s 65 fucking points better than the second best QB. It’s amazing. I’d really love to tell you I knew he was going to be a stud, but, while I certainly liked him and loved getting him as a 3rd round pick last year, I had no idea he’d be this good. He’s a game changer. Part of me is concerned that he’s carrying my team and this run is a one year fluke ala Deshaun Watson or Carson Wentz, but he’s the best player in fantasy right now, so I won’t overthink it.
The one downside of this season is that I have to make week to week decisions, which isn’t exactly my strength in fantasy. I’ve built a great roster, but deciding whether to start Chris Carson, Marlon Mack, Austin Ekeler, Adrian Peterson, or Tyler Boyd each week is a pain, and I’m actually a bit surprised that I’m sitting at a B in Ellis’ rankings for coaching decisions. Let’s hope I don’t screw it up this weekend.
Good luck Jules. Just not too much.
Meanwhile, my team is slowly collapsing, like a souffle. I’ve still managed to score at least 100 in every regular season game (of the other teams, only Hamlet has done that), but I’m not winning convincingly like I did earlier in the year. TE, always a weak spot this season, is now a major Achilles heel with Jordan Reed posting 0 last week and probably going on IR. Losing Marvin Jones also hurt bad, as he was my plug-and-play WR3. Although I own Spencer Ware, losing Kareem Hunt was a gigantic blow (especially since Ware is now dinged up). It may work out in the long run since Hunt is probably going to catch on as somebody else’s starter, but I’m in for some pain until about halfway through next year. Added on to all that, Matt Ryan has gone from MVP candidate to weekly bust candidate.
Still, I’m projected to beat Ellis, and I have some favorable matchups the following week (assuming I can make it to the championship game).
What a disappointment to get the worst performance I can remember in this league when I needed a win. So, my futility continues as I yet again miss the playoffs.
I have hated working night shift this past year or so but it’s given me plenty of time to research fantasy as I’ve had I’ve had plenty of work downtime. At least my team was completive this season, but that stupid 1.5 point loss last week really put my back against the wall and I totally blew it this week.
Tale of two seasons for me. 5-2 to 2-5, culminating in four consecutive losses and an ugly no show on the last week of the regular season, missing my projected points by 50+. Ugh.
Can’t wait to see what Guice can do next year, with any luck the trainwreck Deadskins will trade him elsewhere. Anywhere else.
Oh, and good luck to RNATB, Ellis, Jules, and Hamlet. Should be fun.
That playoffs are set, and I think it will be very interesting! You can make a good case that everyone has a real chance to win it all.
Really Not All That Bright is the #1 seed, so he’s had a consistently strong team. But he has the worst last two weeks and last month of the season out of the playoff teams, by far. Losing Hunt was a critical blow, but hey, it turns out trading for Lamar Miller wasn’t the disaster everyone assumed.
I have the highest average score over the last month of the season, despite posting the lowest single game score of any of the playoff teams in that time. I also finally have my entire starting roster healthy and available at once. That happened for the first time all season just last week. My season might come down to what happens Thursday night. I hate the idea of going up against Mahomes in the playoffs, and it is going to feel mighty shitty if I’m playing from far behind before Sunday even comes around.
**Hamlet **has the highest season score ever posted in the history of the league. He has had consistently good scores for a basically the entire year, but especially this last month (2nd in that time). He seems like the favorite, to me, but I wouldn’t want to play against my team. I have posted 2 of the highest 4 scores in the league this season, so if we get to go toe to toe where both our teams exceed expectations, I punch a little harder.
Finally, Ellis Dee struck gold and made it into the playoffs. His team is the weakest of the four by a fair margin, but he’s actually really close to the highest average score of the last two weeks. There’s something to be said for peaking at the right time, and Ellis is doing just that. He may have even caught a break as the 4th seed going up against a #1 seed that has struggled a bit of late. If Ellis ends up winning it all, it will have been truly earned, no matter who he goes through to get there.