It was a tough choice for me between Wallace and this guy, considering my WRs are not very good, and not very deep, and I am naively believing my team is a contender this year.
Pick 2.05 Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG
Sorry for the double post, just sent a PM to RNATB, who is now on the clock.
Beckham is a superb value there.
Trade announcement! I am sending Sammy Watkins and my 2015 third round pick to Varlos for Brandin Cooks and his 2015 first rounder. We’ve been negotiating over Watkins more or less since the moment I picked him.
As for this pick, I literally have no idea where to go with it. So I’ll take the likely best player available since he also fits a need for my team: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Tampa.
1.01 Bishop Sankey (RB-Ten) furt
1.02 Carlos Hyde (RB-SF) Ellis
1.03 Teddy Bridgewater (QB-Min) dale
1.04 Terrance West (RB-Cle) Retro
1.05 Eric Ebron (TE-Det) Retro
1.06 Sammy Watkins (WR-Buf) RNATB
1.07 Mike Evans (WR-Buf) Petey
1.08 Andre Williams (RB-NYG) Omni
1.09 Devonta Freeman (RB-Atl) RNATB
1.10 Jordan Matthews (WR-Phi) Ellis
1.11 Kelvin Benjamin (WR-Car) Hamlet
1.12 Brandin Cooks (WR-NO) VarlosZ
2.01 Travis Kelce (TE-KC) furt
2.02 Blake Bortles (QB-Jax) Omni
2.03 Tre Mason (RB-Stl) dale
2.04 Cody Latimer (WR-Den) Retro
2.05 Odell Beckham Jr (WR-NYG) Stringer
2.06 Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE-Tam) RNATB
I am still looking to move one or more of my logjam of running backs (Devonta Freeman, Gio Bernard, Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen, Lamar Miller, Danny Woodhead, Mark Ingram, BJGE, Robert Turbin). I am particularly interested in adding a QB at this point. Bernard and Vereen are basically off the table but everyone else is available.
If anyone wants to see an example of how not to negotiate a trade, they should check my PM log for the past couple days. It’s pretty much me just constantly negotiating against myself, upping my offer and talking myself into this with twisty logic.
To be honest, I think this is not a good outcome for me given where I was after Cooks fell to me at #12 – taking into account where Cooks landed and where Watkins landed, there just isn’t this big of a difference between the two, and the smart move probably would’ve been to stand pat and keep Cooks. I wound up doing this because I figured I would’ve taken Watkins 1st overall (had in fact tried to trade up to #1 to get him), and if I’d been able to move up from #12 to #1 for this price before the draft I would’ve been very happy with it. I wound up basing my strategy on a counter-factual.
All that said, I’m still ultimately happy, because I really like Watkins, and I get to pull off the rare feat of being both defending champion and having (to my mind) the #1 overall pick on my team.
**RNATB **makes out like a bandit this draft, doesn’t he? Sitting at the #6 pick, he winds up getting a player that probably should’ve been off the board by then (Cooks), along with an extra 1st Round pick for his trouble.
That’s probably the second biggest steal of the draft (behind Watkins going 6th). I strongly considered sending both RetroVertigo and you, in turn, trade offers to move up from the 2.8 spot to go get him; only stopped because I was already in discussions to expend yet more draft resources on Sammy Watkins, and because I have less use for him than anyone else since My Wide Receivers are now the ultimate power in the Universe.
Calvin Johnson - 28 years old
Randall Cobb - 23
Larry Fitzgerald - 30
Sammy Watkins - 20
DeAndre Hopkins - 21
Michael Crabtree - 26
Emmanuel Sanders - 27 (now featuring Peyton Manning!)
Justin Blackmon - 24 (when he gets back)
And that’s *after *trading away Michael Floyd and Kenny Britt this year (as well as Dez Bryant two years ago). Truly, it’s bonkers how much I’ve built my team through taking value at the WR position and then using trades and paper mache to patch everything else together. Basically every top WR in the NFL draft since our league started has passed through my roster.
2014 – (1) Sammy Watkins, (2) Mike Evans
2013 – Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins
2012 – Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd
2011 – A.J. Green, Julio Jones 
2010 – Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant
2009 – Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin (we’re not counting Darius Heyward-Bey … but I had him, too)
Now, who owns A.J. Green, again? There’s really only one choice for me to make, and I think it’s clear. I must acquire him…
That’s where I think you’re wrong. I think Watkins is a much better route runner, is bigger and stronger, will be better getting off a jam, and is less an injury risk than Cooks, who relies on his elite speed way to much. Watkins is much more polished, much more ready for the NFL.
The big knock on Watkins is that he has a crappy QB throwing him the ball, which is absolutely true, and Cooks has Brees throwing to him. But I think the bigger, more important thing is that Watkins is going to be the focus of the offense while Cooks will be a 3rd option for most of his career. Watkins will get the targets, will get the red zone chances, and will have the ball in his hands a lot, while Cooks will need a couple huge plays a game to be fantasy relevant.
Beckham feasted against Furman, UAB, Mississippi State, and TCU (7 of his 8 TD’s were against those powerhouses). Against Alabama (3 rec. 42 yards), Auburn (5 rec. 59 yards), Arkansas (1 rec. 16 yards), and Florida (2 rec. 47 yards), not so much. I thought he was a huge reach being drafted in the first round, and he’s already missed a ton of time in the off and pre season. I want nothing to do with him.
I dunno about Watkins being the focus of the offense. Buffalo is the most run-oriented team in the league. He’s certainly going to be the focus of the passing game; I just don’t want to wait around for three years while EJ Manuel figures how to get him the ball or they sign somebody else to do it. I was totally unprepared for Watkins to fall to me and I just couldn’t talk myself into thinking he was really a Calvin/Julio/AJ-type prospect - especially since those guys all play with good quarterbacks.
I’m not really very high on Cooks, either; I think he’ll produce just fine in NO, but I am realistic about the number of seasons he’ll get with Drew Brees. Still, I’d rather have him and a first rounder. In a weird way this trade works for me on both a short- and long-term basis.
I am not surprised he fell to 2.05, for these reasons. He is also short, and has a crappy QB throwing to him. I see a similar outlook as Antonio Brown, who was not a relevant player until his 2nd year. He does have a slightly easier path to playing time than Brown ever did though.
I get all the local media for the Bills and you would not believe how high everyone is on Watkins. You’d think he was Jesus walking on water. I’m sure he’ll be good eventually, but he is going to struggle for a few years because the Bills are not even trying to hide the fact that Watkins is their new toy and they plan to play with him a lot.
If only you had that 1st round pick still. 
Both of these guys are role players, and will look better in the context of their teams than they do in fantasy. Both are the best deep threats on their teams, and will open things up for others, but are limited in their Fantasy potential. Marrone wants to run the ball, and Brees has other great options.
Of course you’re not going to get a WR this late in the draft that doesn’t have some problems.
I certainly think there’s that much difference between the two in a vacuum, but context matters a lot in fantasy, and even assuming that Brees only has another couple years it remains that Cooks had one of the very best possible landing spots and Watkins had one of the very worst. I expect Watkins will be quite successful for the reasons you outline, but that still matters.
I think this comes down to a matter of personal philosophy. I’m generally content to assume that teams factor those things in and to largely substitute their judgment for mine, so that I can just use a player’s draft position as a marker for his inherent level of talent. I do some tweaking of that grade in my head before actually drafting (thanks, nfldraftbreakdown. com), and when comparing players taken in the middle rounds I apply a lot less weight to draft differences, but I think on average I do best assuming that a guy taken in the middle of the 1st Round is a significantly better talent than a guy taken in the 3rd, before going on to consider context and opportunity.
As for Beckham, the consensus seemed to be that 2014 was an exceptionally strong year for WRs, but that in an average or slightly down year he could easily be the top receiver on the board. So, for fantasy purposes, I’ll just assume he’s really good, even if I don’t like the nagging early injuries and who knows what’s going to happen with NY’s passing offense (both things that have to be taken into account).
This is essentially the same thought process that had me take Jordan Matthews instead of Cooks at 1.10.
If you think Watkins is the surefire overall #1 in this draft, and you think your #1 overall pick will be at the bottom of the first round, it’s a good trade. I’m not so sure. Watkins I think will be a solid pro, but he may end up being a perpetual 15-20th type of guy, never a star. There’s no one in this draft class I love. FWIW, I thought Cooks at the bottom of the first was a great value and considered trading up for him when he fell that far.
The consensus is certainly that Watkins is the no-question #1 in this draft. Evans is basically being drafted in the same spot in redraft leagues, but that’s because he has a better quarterback.
For me, a first round pick was basically too good to pass up, especially since Watkins was “found money”. I don’t see Varlos winning it all again this year with his generally meh non-WR roster.
Hey, during trade discussions you said I had a “good chance to repeat” – what gives, I wonder…
On a totally unrelated note, I’d be willing to listen to offers for Matt Ryan, looking especially for a 1st Rounder next year.
Oh, did we PM Petey?
I’m confident that my team is better than it was last year, for several reasons, but of course that doesn’t guarantee anything. Worst case would be what happened to **Stringer **last year: I expect to make the playoffs and trade away my 1st largely based on that assumption, but in fact I’m just good enough to win the consolation bracket and I’ve actually traded away the 5th overall pick.
OTOH, if I have a pick in 10-12 range and **RNATB **is in the 1-4 range, it’s a pretty great deal for me. I don’t know, time will tell. Probably I got a little greedy.
Nah, it’s not greed. Your team really needs some new young talent at WR.
I don’t even get an IR slot or anything for Gordon. Ugh.
… you want your own first rounder back? 