Sdmb mafia

[Zsofia]

Well, it’s nice to know we were right about the troll. We did the right thing there, Vig or no Vig.

This random Day thing has really gotten me all confused and turned around.

[ShadowFacts]

@amrussell

Going back to yesterday’s votes: while there’s a fair bit of analysis to do on the voting, there is a major “curious incident of the dog in the night”. I don’t mean somebody pissed up a lamppost and then crapped on my flowerbeds: I mean that once **JSexton **was in the lead with most/all votes in, we then went the better part of 24 hours and two pages without a vote. In retrospect, that should have made it pretty clear that he wasn’t scum, because no-one was trying to save him.

Not to pat myself on the back too hard, but I tried to get people paying attention to the voting patterns yesterDay. I felt fairly sure that **JSexton **was Town, and with that assumption, it was obvious that he was being kept in the lead. Whenever it got close, suddenly someone else would pop in and vote for him. Now that he is confirmed Town, we need to look VERY HARD at the voting - there are absolutely scum in those voting for JSexton. I’m going to be a dog with a bone on this one - I ain’t lettin’ go - so look out, scum suckers.

And I’m going to start where I left off yesterDay:

Ban Hal Briston

It looked to me like he was the one that was being protected, but I’m going to go back and double check. While I’m doing that, my conclusion from yesterDay is a good place to start.

[Zsofia]

I won’t vote to bad just based on voting analysis - I mean, hell, I was wrong about JSexton too. But I do agree that there is almost certainly scum to be found in the voters there and will examine more carefully the posts of those who did vote for him, particularly when the bandwagon got to look pretty “safe”.

[ShadowFacts]

Just for the record, and so I can use the multi-quote feature , here are my most relevant posts from yesterDay regarding the vote patterns:

@ShadowFacts

I’d like to ask everyone to pay attention to how the vote is evolving and ask yourselves what it might mean. I’ll lay it out: at 9pm last night we had this vote count (post #768):

JSexton : 4 (BS PI, Zsofia, Santo Rugger, Rapier42)
Zeriel : 2 (Kat, amrussell)
ok11 : 2 (Zeriel, Hal Briston)
Blaster Master : 1 (Pedescribe)
Hal Briston : 1 (Oredigger77)

I’m going to be focusing on **Hal **and JSexton’s counts here.
[ul]
[li]Pedescribe then votes for JSexton, taking him to 5, but then unvotes after JSexton explains himself. So he’s back to 4.[/li][li]Then I post my review and vote for Hal, making it JSexton 4, Hal 2.[/li][li]amrussell then chimes in with a solid post on why he thinks JSexton is probably town. To my read, the steam is beginning to come off of the JSexton train a bit(although Zeriel is still pressing him).[/li][li]Then Hal himself votes for JSexton, making it 5-2. But Santo then unvotes JSexton right after, returning it to 4-2.[/li][li]Zeriel then votes for Hal, making it 4-3 with some momentum on the Hal train.[/li][li]Then Pleonast votes for JSexton, taking Hal out of immediate danger.[/li][/ul]

Now, my vote is on Hal and I find him to be a little suspicious, so I am looking at this with that filter. But I think everyone should think about this sequence and ask themselves what they think it means. At the very least, it will be very interesting to look back at this if one of them is banned and we get their alignment, because I detect some definite maneuvering.

@ShadowFacts

To continue with my train of thought from before, note once again that as soon as JSexton loses the lead, he gets put right back on top.

Hey Nanook, why do you make the choice only between JSexton and Zeriel? See what you did there? You said you’re not sure that JSexton is scum, but that IF the choice was between him and Zeriel, you’d vote for him, and then you do. But why was your choice only between the two of them? Why not pedescribe, who you seem much surer of? If the day ends in a tie, JSexton would still be banned since he got the lead first, so why did you need to break the tie?

[Fretful_Porpentine]

Here’s who voted and unvoted JSexton, in order:

1. Boozahol Squid (says he might unvote if JS gives a satisfactory explanation for his action)

2. Zsofia (after JS admits the gambit – the next few are also in rapid succession after that)

3. Santo Rugger

4. Rapier42

5. Pedescribe (confirmed Mason)

Pedescribe unvotes, changes vote to Blaster

6. Hal Briston (cites the post where JS says, essentially, that Hal is trying to make him look scummy no matter whether ok11 is town or scum)

Santo Rugger unvotes

7. Pleonast (also citing JSexton’s “mischaracterization” of Hal’s post)

8. Pedescribe again (“if he doesn’t get lynched today, he won’t ever”)

Pedescribe unvotes again, votes for Zeriel

9. Nanook (PFK) votes “to unbreak the tie”

10. ok11

Nanook unvotes, votes for self, votes for JS again

[Fretful_Porpentine]

FWIW, the justification for Hal’s and Pleonast’s votes struck me as rather weak, and certainly oddly timed (both votes were cast well after the post that supposedly inspired them). I had questions about ok11, too, given the timing, but at least she spelled out the reasoning behind her vote in some detail a page or so before she cast it.

[Oredigger77]

Hey, I was right about Nanook, I think that is the first time I’ve figured something out. Seeing as how I’m on a hot streak I’m going to go back to my thoughts on Hal yesterday, also the vote placement annalysis is just confirming my thought process.

Am, it looks like it will either be you or I who gets killed tonight as long as no one improtant claims. You might want to consider posting some final thoughts before the 48 hr mark. I’ll try to have mine in tomarrow night.

[Trepa_Mayfield]

But I was right! Ha!

[Hero_From_Sector_7G]

Shadow, I partially agree with your premise. However, it feels like there is this sentiment developing than anyone who comes out against a lynch leader in 48+ hours has a scum motive. It is a WIFOM argument that needs to stop.

You and amrussel have all come forth this morning saying you didn’t like the JSexton bandwagon but you weren’t vocal about it yesterday. Why not?

[Hero_From_Sector_7G]

Scratch the amrussel part. Somehow I missed his post on the topic of JS. I guess the point I was trying to make was there were times yesterday where town players could have been vocal about not lynching JS, but if another town player had been lynched as a result those vocal players would have been targets today.

It strikes me as a big swirly wine in front of me. I’m not gonna drink just yet.

[Blaster_Master]

@amrussell

As far as Nanook’s death goes, either voting for himself didn’t count, or we’ve got a Vig, as **Blam **says. I don’t know if a Vig should out himself - it’s one more safe choice for a scum kill (he said selflessly) and we wouldn’t, I think, normally tell power roles what to do in any case.

For now, I’d agree that the Vig, if there is one, should probably stay quiet. Of course, there’s several complicating factors including whether he’s compulsory or not and who he’s targetted, etc. Either way, I think we have to trust that he has more information around how useful his revelation would be. Beyond that, we just need to make sure that we don’t ignore or overstate the possibility of a Vig at least until we get mod answers on my questions so we can try to diffuse what happened last Night.

Going back to yesterday’s votes: while there’s a fair bit of analysis to do on the voting, there is a major “curious incident of the dog in the night”. I don’t mean somebody pissed up a lamppost and then crapped on my flowerbeds: I mean that once **JSexton **was in the lead with most/all votes in, we then went the better part of 24 hours and two pages without a vote. In retrospect, that should have made it pretty clear that he wasn’t scum, because no-one was trying to save him.

While I agreed Yesterday that the evidence against JSexton was specious at best, I want to warn you against this sort of thought. Sometimes scum get in a massive lead such that he can’t be saved without revealing others. Sometimes the only person they can turn the votes onto is another scum. Sometimes it’s a bussing by one scum of another.

I think another contributing factor was that the entire town got distracted by the whole Nanook situation. However, I’m not really sure what that means. Even the scum had no idea what he was up to, so their motivation to figure out what he was up to is pretty similar to town’s. Also, now that we know that JSexton is also town, they really didn’t have motivation to use that to distract from him, since non-scum was going to die either way.

@ShadowFacts

Not to pat myself on the back too hard, but I tried to get people paying attention to the voting patterns yesterDay. I felt fairly sure that **JSexton **was Town, and with that assumption, it was obvious that he was being kept in the lead. Whenever it got close, suddenly someone else would pop in and vote for him. Now that he is confirmed Town, we need to look VERY HARD at the voting - there are absolutely scum in those voting for JSexton. I’m going to be a dog with a bone on this one - I ain’t lettin’ go - so look out, scum suckers.

The important question is why was he being kept in the lead? If you’re right, then that means that someone who was likely to take over the lead is likely to be scum, unless you can think of some other motivation for scum to keep a townie in the lead like that. I think that means we should probably take a closer look at some of the other vote getters. If the other vote getters are scum, then I think we may find a disproportionate number of scum on that wagon (at least two, possibly three). If the other vote getters aren’t scum, then we’ll probably find a proportional number of scum there (around one to two).

[ShadowFacts]

@Hero_From_Sector_7G

Shadow, I partially agree with your premise. However, it feels like there is this sentiment developing than anyone who comes out against a lynch leader in 48+ hours has a scum motive. It is a WIFOM argument that needs to stop.

I don’t know about any “sentiment developing,” but I have been very specific about what exactly I felt was going on with yesterDay’s lynch train specifically. That has nothing to do with any broader sentiment about all lynch leaders, so please don’t try to dilute my specific arguments into a vague problem that you then argue against. If you have issues with my actual observations, I am more than happy to discuss them.

@Hero_From_Sector_7G

You and amrussel have all come forth this morning saying you didn’t like the JSexton bandwagon but you weren’t vocal about it yesterday. Why not?

I don’t speak for amrussell, obviously, but did you see the posts I copied just above from yesterDay and do you know where my vote ended up yesterDay? What else would you have liked me to do?

[ShadowFacts]

@Blaster_Master

The important question is why was he being kept in the lead? If you’re right, then that means that someone who was likely to take over the lead is likely to be scum, unless you can think of some other motivation for scum to keep a townie in the lead like that. I think that means we should probably take a closer look at some of the other vote getters. If the other vote getters are scum, then I think we may find a disproportionate number of scum on that wagon (at least two, possibly three). If the other vote getters aren’t scum, then we’ll probably find a proportional number of scum there (around one to two).

My argument yesterDay, and so far toDay, is that the person that was being protected was Hal Briston. Please take a look at what I’ve posted on that and let me know what you think.

[Hero_From_Sector_7G]

Fretful’s timeline doesn’t paint the same picture.

The closest Hal got to being vote leader was two away. You’re also completing ignoring Zeriel who was actually MATCHED with JSexton (6 to 6) for a while. If you were going to be making the case that someone was being protected I would think it would be there. Your whole argument just doesn’t make sense to me.

[ShadowFacts]

@Hero_From_Sector_7G

Fretful’s timeline doesn’t paint the same picture.

The closest Hal got to being vote leader was two away. You’re also completing ignoring Zeriel who was actually MATCHED with JSexton (6 to 6) for a while. If you were going to be making the case that someone was being protected I would think it would be there. Your whole argument just doesn’t make sense to me.

I believe **Fretful **missed Zeriel’s vote for Hal, which took **Hal **within 1 vote of JSexton. Please do check and see which of us is correct - I haven’t had the time yet today to double check my work from yesterDay, but hope to do so later tonight.

And I am not ignoring Zeriel, I just haven’t gotten to my complete review yet. I think it might be fruitful to look at the sequence with him in the mix, too. If you’d like to do that and save me some time, I’d be grateful.

Please tell me what exactly about my “whole” argument you don’t understand and I will try to explain. You actually seem to get it, given the fact that you explain it in the sentence before you said you don’t understand, so I’m not sure why you say you don’t.

You also didn’t answer my question from my previous reply to you. I would appreciate it if you would. Thanks.

[Fretful_Porpentine]

I believe Fretful missed Zeriel’s vote for Hal, which took Hal within 1 vote of JSexton.

Given that it’s a timeline only of voting and unvoting on JSexton, that would be a pretty safe bet. I didn’t keep track of the votes on other players, although I probably should have.

[Hero_From_Sector_7G]

@ShadowFacts

Please tell me what exactly about my “whole” argument you don’t understand and I will try to explain. You actually seem to get it, given the fact that you explain it in the sentence before you said you don’t understand, so I’m not sure why you say you don’t.

You also didn’t answer my question from my previous reply to you. I would appreciate it if you would. Thanks.

I have seen all your posts. I think your argument against Hal doesn’t make sense when Zeriel is put in the mix. I agree with you that looking at the voting record makes sense, and I also agree with you that Hal appears scummy, but for different reasons. I made it clear yesterday when I called out Hal and **Zsofia ** for piling on the JSexton train. At that time, Zeriel also had a high vote count.

I’m just really curious why someone so low on the vote totem got your attention over someone else.

As for me, I’m going to use my FOS until the 48 hour mark. At that point I will drop the vote on who I think is most scummy.

FOS Zeriel
FOS Hal Briston
FOS ShadowFacts

[ShadowFacts]

768: Official vote count
JSexton = 4 (Squid, Zsofia, Santo, Rapier42)
Zeriel = 2 (Kat, amrussell)
Hal = 1 (OreDigger)

769 & 771: Pedescribe then votes for JSexton, taking him to 5, but then unvotes after JSexton explains himself. So we’re back to the count above.

778: I post my review and vote for Hal, making it…
JSexton = 4 (Squid, Zsofia, Santo, Rapier42)
Zeriel = 2 (Kat, amrussell)
Hal = 2 (OreDigger, Shadow)

788: amrussell chimes in with a solid post on why he thinks JSexton is probably town. To my read, the steam is beginning to come off of the JSexton train a bit (although Zeriel is still pressing him).

797: Hero votes for Zeriel, making it…
JSexton = 4 (Squid, Zsofia, Santo, Rapier42)
Zeriel = 3 (Kat, amrussell, Hero)
Hal = 2 (OreDigger, Shadow)

805: Then Hal himself votes for JSexton, making it…
JSexton = 5 (Squid, Zsofia, Santo, Rapier42, Hal)
Zeriel = 3 (Kat, amrussell, Hero)
Hal = 2 (OreDigger, Shadow)

806: But Santo then unvotes JSexton right after, making it…
JSexton = 4 (Squid, Zsofia, Rapier42, Hal)
Zeriel = 3 (Kat, amrussell, Hero)
Hal = 2 (OreDigger, Shadow)

809: Zeriel then votes for Hal, making it 4-3-3 with some momentum on the Hal train:
JSexton = 4 (Squid, Zsofia, Rapier42, Hal)
Zeriel = 3 (Kat, amrussell, Hero)
Hal = 3 (OreDigger, Shadow, Zeriel)

813: Then Pleonast votes for JSexton, taking Hal out of immediate danger.
JSexton = 5 (Squid, Zsofia, Rapier42, Hal, Pleonast)
Zeriel = 3 (Kat, amrussell, Hero)
Hal = 3 (OreDigger, Shadow, Zeriel)

825: pedescribe piles on…[we now know this is a town vote]
JSexton = 6 (Squid, Zsofia, Rapier42, Hal, Pleonast, pede)
Zeriel = 3 (Kat, amrussell, Hero)
Hal = 3 (OreDigger, Shadow, Zeriel)

833: Jsexton votes Zeriel…[we now know this is a town vote]
JSexton = 6 (Squid, Zsofia, Rapier42, Hal, Pleonast, pede)
Zeriel = 4 (Kat, amrussell, Hero, JSexton)
Hal = 3 (OreDigger, Shadow, Zeriel)

863: pedescribe makes things interesting by swapping…
JSexton = 5 (Squid, Zsofia, Rapier42, Hal, Pleonast)
Zeriel = 5 (Kat, amrussell, Hero, JSexton, pede)
Hal = 3 (OreDigger, Shadow, Zeriel)

874: Nanook (PFK) puts JSexton back in the lead…
JSexton = 6 (Squid, Zsofia, Rapier42, Hal, Pleonast, Nanook)
Zeriel = 5 (Kat, amrussell, Hero, JSexton, pede)
Hal = 3 (OreDigger, Shadow, Zeriel)

893: Blaster ties it up again…
JSexton = 6 (Squid, Zsofia, Rapier42, Hal, Pleonast, Nanook)
Zeriel = 6 (Kat, amrussell, Hero, JSexton, pede, Blaster)
Hal = 3 (OreDigger, Shadow, Zeriel)

907: ok11 breaks the tie with no reason, stating he will explain later…
JSexton = 7 (Squid, Zsofia, Rapier42, Hal, Pleonast, Nanook, ok11)
Zeriel = 6 (Kat, amrussell, Hero, JSexton, pede, Blaster)
Hal = 3 (OreDigger, Shadow, Zeriel)

That’s the end of relevant voting (actually, ALL voting if my review was correct). So, Hero, now that the sequence includes Zeriel, what conclusions can you glean?

[ShadowFacts]

@Hero_From_Sector_7G

You and amrussel have all come forth this morning saying you didn’t like the JSexton bandwagon but you weren’t vocal about it yesterday. Why not?

@ShadowFacts

I don’t speak for amrussell, obviously, but did you see the posts I copied just above from yesterDay and do you know where my vote ended up yesterDay? What else would you have liked me to do?

@ShadowFacts

You also didn’t answer my question from my previous reply to you. I would appreciate it if you would. Thanks.

@Hero_From_Sector_7G

I have seen all your posts.

Please answer my original question: you said I wasn’t vocal about not liking the Jsexton bandwagon, I replied by asking if you had seen my posts from yesterday (which I had already re-posted and which were vocal about not liking the JSexton bandwagon). You say you’ve seen them, so the question remains: What else would you have liked me to do?

[Boozahol_Squid_P.I]

@ShadowFacts

809: Zeriel then votes for Hal, making it 4-3-3 with some momentum on the Hal train:

This isn’t the first time you’ve characterized Zeriel’s vote as ‘putting momentum on the Hal train’, only for it to be suddenly derailed by Pleonast’s vote for JSexton. While I know you’ve had a hard-on for a Hal lynch all game long (where’s MHaye’s speech about not dragging old grudges into new games when you need it?), it seems like you’re tinting this far too much with your anti-Hal lenses.

Pleo’s vote did just as much to take the heat off of Zeriel as it did anything for Hal. The vote switching fun at the end all seems to have been done by non-scum elements, but ok11’s final vote for JSexton could possibly be an effort to keep Zeriel from getting the lynch (even though JSexton, having reached 6 first, would have been lynched anyways).

None of this is enough for me to slap a vote on anyone today, yet, though.