First, I believe Hal and I were scumbuddies the last time we played together, and I have no grudge against him whatsoever. Second, the reason it’s not the first time I’ve said that about Zeriel’s vote is because I just copied my previous vote analysis and expanded it to include Zeriel.
I agree and should have mentioned that, but again I was quoting my previous language.
Fine with me - aside from placing my own vote, I have not explicitly advocated for anyone to follow my lead. I’m laying out the facts as I see them and asking people to analyze. My own analysis so far makes me suspicious of Hal, but I’m not 100% sure he’s scum, just as I wasn’t 100% sure JSexton was Town yesterDay. What I think would be foolish is to ignore the data we have from yesterDay, so I’m going to try to push everyone to look at it and discuss it. (The discussion so far has been very interesting, IMO). Do you get any kind of read from the sequence?
First, I believe Hal and I were scumbuddies the last time we played together, and I have no grudge against him whatsoever. Second, the reason it’s not the first time I’ve said that about Zeriel’s vote is because I just copied my previous vote analysis and expanded it to include Zeriel.
[quote]
Sorry, for whatever reason, I thought I’d remembered the two of you locking horns in some game before.
I think those votes have a lote of information locked up in them, but unfortunately, at this point, we don’t have enough information to unlock them. If Zeriel turns out to be scum, I think that there’s good reason to look over Pleo’s drive by vote with some suspicion, and vice versa. I don’t see enough right now, though.
Okay, I’m looking at these votes you’ve posted, I’m really not seeing Hal in any real danger here until Zeriel votes for Hal. The closest Hal got to being lynched Yesterday was within 2 votes, and that’s only after Zeriel who was tied with him after voting for him, voted for him, which means even she was one vote ahead.
Bottom line, I’m not sure it was necessarily Hal that was being protected, but it certainly does look like either Zeriel or Hal is scum based on the vote patterns.
What I want to do is generalize a little bit here, Shadow, let’s say there’s a reasonably high chance that there is at least one scum between Zeriel and Hal. If that’s true, whose votes are suspicious? The two you mentioned, Pleo and ok11 are the two that stick out. So, why don’t we go back and look at those two votes, as well as put Hal and Zeriel both under the microscope and see what comes up?
Also, I want to make a couple comments on your comments…
Interesting the Zeriel is the next person in the most trouble, and she is pushing the top vote-getter, but never actually votes for him.
I think this vote is very interesting, and we should probably go back and reread why she was pressuring JSexton but then ultimately voted for Hal. Also, I have to disagree that the Hal train has momentum here, this is the last vote he gets.
This, of course, is the suspicious vote. But if Pleo is scum and he’s voting to protect, is he protecting Zeriel or Hal?
Come to think of it, this may have some significance, or it may not. We really have no idea what Nanook’s powers were or what his goal was. Maybe Zeriel is his PFK partner and he was trying to save her? I can’t imagine this was saving **Hal[/B ]at all since he was already seemingly saved.
Did we ever get an explanation later? Also, this vote really only looks suspicious if Zeriel is scum, it really doesn’t look bad if Hal is because he’s long since saved.
We got one earlier, actually, in this post. ok11 made several follow-up posts after the vote, but none of them seem to state the case against JSexton as coherently as she does in the one I linked.
I realize it’s unclear from the post, but when I said that an explanation will follow shortly, I was referring to an explanation of why my first vote was unofficial. I saw that several people had a problem with what I did, so I wanted to let them know there’s a reason for it (that explanation is in post 914). As Fretful Porpentine said, I’ve already laid out my reasons for voting to ban Jsexton in post 864, and didn’t have anything to add afterwards.
All right. I know that this is probably a very weak reason to place a vote, and I may get excorciated for putting it down. But honestly, I don’t really buy the case made against Hal. I don’t even buy the case made against Zeriel by Kat and others for essentially being a little evasive, as being somewhat evasive is just part of the mindset made in this game (q.v., my weaselly little sentence opening this post). But right now we have what I feel is a goldmine of information from the vote trail yesterday, and not a lot of ways to reliably ‘crack’ into it.
Reliable discovery of Zeriel’s alignment would go a long ways in doing that, and I just don’t know where to go other than that.
So, just in case Zeriel comes wandering in here and wants to know how the hell she should respond to that vote (it’s a vote for a lynch for information, and I know that I’d hate it if I was in her spot), I’m still open to changing my vote based on a reasonable case made against someone else.
So far in this game, major contenders for lynching that are still alive are Zeriel, Hal Briston, and HeroFromSector7G. Maybe you could count me in the running, after I racked up 3 votes over the whole interpretation-of-Santo’s-role thing. None of these cases have been hugely compelling, and all seem to be of the same sort of Day One, ‘scare up a case against someone because you’ve got to’ variety. Do you have something stronger than that, Zeriel?
The exact same conclusion I just posted. Hal was never in any true danger, and it doesn’t make sense that scum would fall over themselves to protect him. By YOUR own logic Zeriel was in more danger, and I find it really curious that you completely neglected to mention that until I pressed you.
I agree that the JSexton wagon took a lot of extra weight. I noticed that Hal and ZSofia hopped on awkwardly and with little reason.
Yesterday you never made it vocally clear that you were opposed to a JSexton lynch. You just attacked Hal. I’m getting an uneasy feeling from you because you are equating yesterday’s attack on Hal as a pro-town defense of JSexton. This combined with your complete lack of mentioning Zeriel feels like a mis-representation of what was really happening yesterday.
Also, you did a lot of work putting together that list of votes. In doing so did you draw any new conclusions?
I believe these are two separate thoughts. Hal already answered the second question (with names switched, of course). As for the first, I felt quite strongly about the **JSexton ** lynch. My gut was screaming “scum scum scum!” But then Shadow Facts reminded me of the mindset I had when I was trying to do something a bit out of the box and was garnering suspicion for it. He made me realize that JSexton could have, in fact (and did) have a pro town motivation. When I removed my vote, I was a bit disheartened that I got so excited and was so sure that JSexton was scum, that when I thought about his motivation I was a bit disappointed that I got that worked up about it. I developed tunnel vision, and didn’t have the peripheral vision to lay down a solid vote at that point in time.
No, you’re right. I got my (obviously wrong) guess of what your power was from Day One fixed in my head as you saying that was it. Mea culpa, mea maxima culpa.
Bolding mine. ** Boozy** has directly stated that he thought my role claim was half assed. Either he’s forgetting what he’s typing, or he’s making shit up as he goes along, assigning people’s (i.e. my) claims his own attributes and trying to convince the rest of the town of said attributes.
Well, I do think a roleclaim that’s 'essentially ‘part of my role allows me to extend the day’ is a half-assed roleclaim. I’m not trying to smudge you, and I’m not saying you’re wrong for doing it. But it’s not a full roleclaim.
As for assigning you attributes that I’d made up, I grant you that. It wasn’t intentional, it’s just the result of my hooch-ridden footbrain getting muddled over the course of the game.
Well, I’m still suspicious of Zeriel, but here’s something else to be going on with. Following up on the vote-pattern analysis that has people looking at Hal and Pleo, as well as my question to Santo at the top of the page, here’s a faint pattern I think I’ve picked up.
Way back on Day One, I asked Hal a question when he seemed to have some information about the alignment of roles. Here’s the first answer I got:
Ok, maybe I’m dumb and it was perfectly obvious to everyone what Hal meant, but I thought it was odd that Santo answered for him. ToDay, I ask Santo a question and…
Aside from the glaring error in this, I don’t understand why Hal is rushing to defend Santo.
Here’s something else, from Pleo:
This post (813) looks like a fairly detailed review. But someone’s missing:
That last post is number 782. I would say Santo was pretty heavily involved in the gambit. Certainly he was a big part of the conversation and put a vote down. But he’s written out of Pleo’s summary. Again, it could just be a mistake, but it looks like he’s directing our attention away from one player and on to others.
So for what it’s worth, there seems to be some interaction between Hal, Santo and Pleo.
no just that. I don’t like people not voting for the one they find scummiest. So he could have gotten too far ahead yousaid? So what, if you think he is scum why worry about that.