I don’t see Scott’s reelection as a done deal, despite the wishful thinking of a few. The Teahadists feel betrayed by him and while they’d never vote for a Dem, aren’t going to be anxious to vote for Scott, either.
Given the near universal disgust with the Republican thugs in Wisconsin, I don’t see how the Democrats lose there.
If Snowe loses in the primary what are the odds she runs and an independent?
Apparently, Maine laws allow her enough time to loose the primary and still get on the ballot as an independent, so thats probably the most likely probability. She looses the primary and then easily wins the Senate seat as an independent.
I think that West Virginia is pretty safe for Manchin. He’s very popular, Raese isn’t running again, and no Republican can possibly raise enough money to challenge him.
If she does that do you think she will still Caucus with the GOP or will she jump ship?
Only if he’s confident of beating Brown - it could get to that point, but not yet. He isn’t nearly the most senior of the MA delegation, to be sure, but he’s got enough years in to make giving them up a problem. But, he’s one of the strongest and most popular, too, and not an obvious choice as you think. And, there are at least half a dozen declared Dem candidates in the race already - name rec is low for them all, but they’re all plausible, including Alan Khazei, who won a lot of friends in the Senate campaign, if you’ll recall. Setti Warren is less likely but still has more experience than many others who’ve actually won.
I would bet on Tierney being the one to get voted off the island, if it comes to that. He’s easily the least accomplished, and ethically most vulnerable (via his wife), of the delegation. If the evidence of his rallies attempting to “keep the 6th intact” are any indication, he knows it, too.
I think she’ll stay with the GOP if they gain control of the Senate; if the Democrats retain control it’s an open question. Of course if the end result is 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, & 2 Independants (her & Bernie Sanders) she would the the deciding vote in organizing the Senate. Now it’s a given that if she loses the primary and runs as an independant her colleages and the GOP will strip her of her committee assignments, drag her name through the mud, etc, but she would be expecting all that so it won’t be much of a factor in her decision. As soon as the Election’s over all will be forgoten.
That’s a good point about Tierney. The thing about Capuano running, though, is he did almost get the nomination last time, so I don’t know if he still has the Senate bug. Also, what’s the over/under on Markey? He’s flirted with the Senate before. Don’t get me wrong. I think most of the people who are in the race already could win (not Herb Robinson or Marisa DeFranco), or at least have a serious shot, but I wouldn’t rule out bigger candidates getting in yet.
Markey has not yet publicly either shat or gotten off the pot, but if he’s not yet in, then don’t count on him. This is a good summary of the shape of the horse race.
Sorry, man, I visit Wisconsin regularly… I don’t see how a Republicans don’t get a pickup there.
Even in fighting the “recall” elections, the unions aren’t mentioning how they wuz done wrong by not being able to collectively bargain.
They aren’t mentioning it? Even way out here in Montana I’m hearing them mention it. How could anyone in Wisconsin itself possibly miss hearing them?
The states with crazy baggers for governors are able to redistrict themselves into a fighting chance. Then they are pushing voter ID laws that will keep Dems from voting. The Repubs have figured out how to subvert the system quite well.
They do not have financial problems.