FWIW the NYT is thinking otherwise. And they really had it in for her. Gift link.
The findings suggest that Mary Peltola, the Democratic nominee, is on track to eventually prevail in the Alaska Senate race. Ms. Peltola currently leads by less than one percentage point, but she is expected to build a more substantial lead once about 60,000 more votes, mostly cast by mail, are counted in the days ahead. …
… In a surprising twist, one reason Mr. Sullivan doesn’t fare better is that more of the voters who backed the other Dan Sullivan — a candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., who was recruited by allies of Ms. Peltola to siphon votes from the incumbent — ranked Ms. Peltola as their second choice rather than Mr. Sullivan.
The analysis is based on the state’s initial release of ballots from more than 200,000 voters, or nearly all the votes tabulated thus far. The data shows how every voter ranked the candidates in the Senate race, including whether they left their subsequent choices blank. …