On the GOP side of the house, a Trump backed candidate - his name, Amir Hassan - who had all the support of the GOP establishment and got all the money and political endorsements lost to a guy who had dropped out of the race - his name, Tom Smith. This happened in Michigan. And bear in mind that Trump took Michigan in 2016 and again in 2024.
Primaries are dominated by true believers. General elections include a lot more casual voters. Yes, some of those casual voters will not look past a name. But many will hear an endorsement or two, and see a few ads. Michigan has a lot of Arab voters, too. As well as non-Arab voters with neighbors who have Arab names.
I’m a little surprised that a maga-dominated primary would ignore Trump’s endorsement, but I’d expect a lot of racists in that primary, honestly. I have higher hopes for the general election.
This tells us that El Sayed is likely to do very poorly with Republican primary voters, but I don’t think that’s where he’s expecting to receive his support anyways.
There is a real scrap brewing in Alaska’s senate race. The incumbent in Washington is Dan Sullivan (R), a total waste of space. There are 17 people running for the seat, including. . .Dan Sullivan. Not the incumbent, but a different guy named Dan Sullivan who is running for the Democrat side of the ticket. The Republicans have tried to have him removed and accused him of trying to undermine the election, cause confusion, etc. I think they’re just pissed off because they didn’t think of doing something similar. But Dan Sullivan (D) is an Alaska resident and a U.S. citizen, so there’s really nothing they can do about it. There’s a good article about it in the NYT today. It could certainly swing the election, as there are only about 600,000 registered voters there, and it’s a ranked choice ballot. Man, sometimes I wish I still lived there.
AIUI, the Dan Sullivan who’s currently a Senator will have the word “incumbent” next to his name on the ballot. The two do have different middle names, but very few know what they are. So it’d be difficult for most people to say which was which if that was all they had on the ballot to disinguish them.
The Democrat operative who convinced Dan Sullivan 2 to run is no doubt hoping to split the other DS’s vote so he doesn’t get on the general ballot. Could work.
Single-issue anti-Israel obsessive Angie Nixon wins the Democratic primary in Florida in a polling upset over Alex Vindman. You can go ahead and use your ballpoint pen to fill that seat in as a Republican hold in November.
Of course Vindman, expected to win, was rated as losing handily in the general to Moody already. The ink pens were already out.
So what is most interesting is why he was upset so badly by someone who hardly spent anything?
It seems that Democratic voters want … different.
And while the odds that she will be clobbered horribly in the general are great it will be interesting to see… very very very little chance of an upset in the general but there does seem to be an appeal to just not what we have had, anything other than more of the same! If she just doesn’t lose horribly it will be solid ammunition for the progressive wing that they are competitive even in Florida statewide. I suspect Dem establishment folk are really hoping that she loses in an extreme manner.
I’m going to vote for Moulton (purely because Markey is 80) but he’s such a terrible candidate I don’t think this counts as the litmus test. I (and a lot of MA voters) first heard about him as a result of his rant about trans people after Harris lost in 2024 and even if you’re able to look past that he has next to nothing that’s really positive about him.
Markey is almost guaranteed to win, and it’s a state where the Democrat has zero chance kf losing the general, not to mention we’ll probably have a democratic governor if Markey dies in office. However unfortunately when all this happens it’ll likely be used as evidence that progressives aren’t serious about wanting younger candidates.
I don’t think the “gerontocracy” talking points were ever serious. If they were the 60 year old would have beat the 80 year old in 2024.
It’s just another buzzword in a sphere overwhelmed by them. Nancy Pelosi was a person who could still do the job of speaker more capably to this day than the last 4, significantly younger, Republican speakers. The biggest pains for senate dems haven’t been older senators, it’s been Sinema and Fetterman who did not like or take the job seriously.
Markey is just better than Moulton, and he was better than John Kennedy III. More often than not, younger candidates who try and primary incumbents for the sake of “new blood” are usually selfish weirdos with main character syndrome.
Do progressives want younger candidates, or do voters in general want younger candidates? I think progressives want progressive candidates. Isn’t Bernie Sanders their informal leader? He’s old.
Markey is more progressive than Moulton. I’d have to expect progressives, even progressives who would prefer younger candidates, to favor Markey over Moulton.
I think there is some democratic voter frustration across the board about old candidates. The moderates and progressives seem to be accusing the other side of not policing this among their preferred candidates so neither will unilaterally disarm.
However I genuinely think there is a segment of Democratic primary voters that isn’t all the way in one camp and might factor age into their vote. But Moulton is such a terrible candidate that this segment eill likely reject him either way.
And yeah Bernie should not gave run for the term he’s serving now. He can still be an elder statesman of the progressives without the risk that his health will decline or he’ll die at a time when the dems need his vote. Vermont even has a republican governor (although I’m not sure what their succession process is).
It would be amazing if she wins. Personally failing that I don’t have a preference for crash and burn or come very close, but one or the other will definitely provide information for the next cycle.
I’m solidly center left, but if this candidate even comes close to holding her own in the general, in Florida, the argument for a progressive wing presidential candidate is strengthened greatly. If she flames horribly … not. I’m open to whatever is going to deliver.
