My quibble about the poll was it wasn’t clear whether you were asking about how the voting would come out, or how the new Congress would be seated.
I can see a lot of ways for the Ds to be elected but only seated after a near revolution with competing military units in the streets that’ll make J6 look like the stupid people’s riot it was.
Another reason why I put the poll as “had to.” Again, to prod people into making their best educated guess.
I’m not sure how the former isn’t eliminated by my specifying mid-January. I put it in there specifically to account for that kind of shenanigan.
But you had no way to make anyone vote. And I didn’t.
Well, if you gave me your address, I’d see what I could do.
I would have to bet/vote that the Dems take the House with a solid margin, and barely take the Senate.
I think that the most likely vote total would be the Democrats winning enough seats to control both houses. But I have no idea what the actual outcome will be, come January. And under no circumstances would I bet any money on either of those.
I saw an AP poll showing Trump’s approval on the economy is over 20 points lower than it was in 2018. I think sometimes we fail to understand how different national perception of the Republican party is compared to the last Trump admin.
Either Dems win both houses or Trump’s approval ratings are just completely wrong.
Never confuse or conflate "I don’t like trump’s results as applied to me. " for “I’m willing to vote for a Demoncrat over Anybody (R) for my rep / senator in Congress.”
If trump was up for reelection or recall next month he might well get fired. Congress? All R voters gonna vote for Anybody (R). It’s what they do.
If they vote.
Swing and Independent voters? They are going much more often vote D. If they vote.
And D voters will vote D if they vote.
I am just not sure the turnout model will be on the money.
Or the polls are wildly incorrect. In the past it did seem they underreported GOP support.
Turnout is going to be key and Democratic GOTV efforts will be crucial. Just one example, reporting is Elmo Musk gave Paxton $156 million just last week. If Paxton dumps all of that into ad buys I don’t think it will actually accomplish much. If they put that money in GOTV in TX then that could put Crooked Ken in the Senate. Personally I don’t think they have the staff or smarts to pull that off but we shall see.
They have underreported support when Trump was on the ballot (though I wouldn’t really call 3ish points wildly inaccurate) but the last midterm cycles have been pretty spot on. Again though polls aren’t stagnant, If pollsters make errors they will adjust next time, so just because was off one way in the past doesn’t mean will be the same next time.
I agree putting that in ad buys is worthless but I’m not sure GOTV campaigns are a much better use of funds. It is a fine line between encouraging people to vote and just annoying them and more money doesn’t necessarily makes things better.
So given this is Ken Paxton, maybe he will move most of it to an account in the Cayman’s.
Yes, remember registered Indy voters are about 1/3.
https://ballotpedia.org/Partisan_affiliations_of_registered_voters
As of August 2026, 45.3 million registered voters in these areas identified themselves as Democrats, representing 36.03% of registered voters in these areas.
A total of 38.3 million registered voters identified themselves as Republicans, representing 30.40% of registered voters in these areas.
A total of 37.7 million registered voters identified themselves as independents or unaffiliated with any political party. This amounted to 29.94% of registered voters in these areas.
Approximately 4.5 million registered voters identified themselves as members of other political parties. This amounted to 3.60% of registered voters in these areas.
So if almost all of the Dems vote Dem, and some decent percent of GOP do not bother to vote or vote Libertarian, and the Indy voters mostly vote Dem, it is a Dem victory. The Dems do not need a single GOP voter to win.
Except that i wager on the bad outcome, so at least i have some consolation. I’ve never wagered based on my “sincere beliefs”. I sometimes bet a nickel on sincere beliefs, i guess.
I don’t especially think there’s truth to be found in the betting markets, either. That’s just a bunch of people who don’t know any more than i do, betting for a variety of reasons.
I wonder what “these areas” mean in context?
In some states it makes total sense for distinctly partisan voters to register as members their party. In other states, due to quirks in the electoral or privacy laws, or party primary systems, it makes sense for distinctly partisan voters to register as Independents.
In many states it’s advantageous for a partisan to register as a member of the opposite party. That way they can vote for an unelectable clown in the other party’s primary and still vote their preferred party in the general. Lot more people talk about doing this than do it, but the number who actually do it isn’t zero.
Bottom line: without a lot more context, asserting that all the registered independents are actually votes up for grabs is not supported by facts. Some? Sure. Many? Probably. Most? Getting increasingly unlikely.
Yeah I’m registered as an independent. I almost always vote D in the general, but my state allows independents to vote in any one primary, so i take the primary ballot that i think matters the most this election cycle.
I never vote “for a clown”. That violates Kant’s ethical rules. (What is everyone did it?) But often the R ballot features a horrible candidate running against a perfectly okay candidate, and the R candidate will matter. I voted against Trump in the primary as well as the general, for instance. As an independent.
I have right-leaning friends who are also registered independent.
While betting strategies and philosophies are an interesting topic, I would love it if we could refocus on the senate races.
Okay.
Predict what you think will be the biggest surprise result. We will remember we heard it here first!
We’ll know in a couple of weeks. I am anxious about a lot of them.
Jackson did not cover himself with glory when he told Collins to “shut up”, whatever polymarket and kalshi say.
And the polls suggest Pappas is ahead in NH, but i see an awful lot of signs for Sununu when i drive there. And he’s a Sununu. That’s worth a couple of points just by itself. (That’s an extremely successful political family in NH. Not just the candidate, but his father and…i think his uncle were also prominent and popular politicians there.)
I’m cautiously optimistic about El-Sayed. I have to think “Tommy” gave him a boost. (A friend texted me and said: I saw this and said to myself, “No way — Tommy has to be a plant.” And he was! But not El-Sayed’s, apparently; he’s a former Hawley staffer.)
Absolutely not. Of all the predictions about politics that I find uninteresting and ill-informed, my own are at the top of that list.