Georgia: Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is ahead of Republican Rep. Mike Collins 48% to 40% in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution survey (updated Oct. 21).
That is a pretty solid lead.
same here-
New Hampshire: Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is leading his Republican opponent, former Sen. John Sununu, 51% to 44%, according to a St. Anselm College poll, although 4% of respondents said they were unsure or voting for a third candidate (updated Oct. 7).
My call- us Dems will take about half of the other close ones.
I doubt that, actually. I think there’s going to be a lot of correlation in the results, such that the “close” races either end up all or mostly D, or all or mostly R (plus a few “not-close” ones going that way as well).
I’m getting more sanguine about a flip after reading Wikipedia’s summary of the races in a holistic way. There are so many close races that no longer have an elected incumbent running, which gives the R officials either no incumbent advantage, or an unknown amount of it in the case of appointed Senators. I’d known about each of them individually but never counted them up. 7 or so.
The most important thing in national elections is obviously the national mood, which deviates the vote from the baseline in a correlated way between states, but the second most important thing is personal factors, and who knows if casual “R” voters just won’t like the new candidates, or conversely, did like their own incumbent senator but is only so so about the new candidate. (Local issues can be important in national elections for representing the state, but Joe Manchin is the only person in recent history I can think of where it seemed to make a difference.)
GA and NH are not flips. Which is why they weren’t mentioned in the polls I was responding to. Or did you miss that?
Peltola in AK is the only one I think has a reasonable chance to flip a seat. That gets us to 50D. I fully expect IA, ME, TX, and KS to go to the GOP with Vance getting the tie breaking vote.
The overconfidence I was referring to is being expressed by multiple posters in these threads, others online and by talking heads on the news. I didn’t say anything about candidates and they weren’t mentioned in the post I was responding to.
Re last post – and your earlier post predicting that “IA, ME, TX, and KS to go to the GOP” – could be. Then, look at the Brazilian election, where the Trumpy candidate lost by 3 1/2 points in a race pollsters had him winning by about 1 point. 4 1/2 points off, either way, would be a higher than normal polling error in the U.S. But 3 1/2 points off – quite normal.
As to whether people on the internet – or TV prognosticators – affect the result by their opinion, I do not see why this would be.
I myself can’t give myself such overconfidence that I don’t vote. Has anyone on this board actually done that? Not even voted when they could have because their candidate had it in the bag? If not then I don’t see the need to tell people here, with our limited reach, to not talk about what their honest opinion of the odds are.
I mean for me, it’s literally impossible. I’ve already voted.
The Kansas race can absolutely go either way at this point. Kansas has a large metropolitan area next to it and has has some luck with Democrats. Iowa and Nebraska do not have that Kansas City like area. Omaha is not quite it yet.
The following Senate races are within two points in polling averages (mostly looking at RealClearPolitics):
Texas
Iowa
Maine
Alaska
Michigan
Kansas
Nebraska
If all of the above narrowly go for the GOP, or all of the above go narrowly for the Democrats, that would indicate to me that polls were accurate.
South Carolina is within three points, but only with scanty low quality polling. So either could win without a polling failure.
Ohio and Minnesota are within four points in polling averages (both with the Democrat ahead). If both of those narrowly go the other way, that’s a moderate polling failure but nothing uncommon.
I see no reason to predict what will happen overall.
Well, it is true that some of our tax dollars are going to killing Palestinians, and it is true that those tax dollars could instead be going to things that help the people. Which part are you disputing?
Based on past elections I am taking the position that polling underreports MAGA/GOP support. So I would say any race within 2 points is likely to go to the GOP.
Texas - the dream of flipping TX purple has been going for at least 10 years and hasn’t happened. Plus, the SOS who certifies elections is an Abbott appointee, not elected. There will be games played to toss votes. For Talarico to get to the Senate I think he will have to win by at least 5%.
Iowa - it is possible it will flip blue because the state has a history of being more purple but I’m still not convinced Turek can pull off the close.
Maine - Susan Collins is like the undead. She always comes back on Election Day.
Alaska - Peltola was up by enough in the primary that I expect the ranked choice voting to put her over the finish line.
Michigan - sorry but I expect the anti-Muslim rhetoric will work and Abdul will lose.
Kansas - I think of these races Hamilton has the best shot with him being a respected and well known Methodist pastor. Still, it is Kansas. Turnout will make the difference.
Nebraska - No chance.
If most or all of these seats flip Blue I expect massive, long term court fights. Maybe most will fail, maybe not. I have very little faith in SCOTUS at this point. And I expect massive violence by MAGA that will pale in comparison to 1/6 if DJT calls for it.
But hey, I would be delighted to be wrong. Huge D/Independent turnout and a lack of enthusiasm by MAGA could be key.
The SoS who certifies elections in Texas is Ken F***ing Paxton. So, AIUI, yes, he is going to be certifying the election in which he, himself is running, and there is no requirement for him to recuse himself due to a conflict of interest.
My mistake, and my apologies. Paxton is attorney general.
However, as this website notes, he still has the ability to affect how the election is handled, and he doesn’t have to recuse himself. He is a known ratfucker when it comes to abusing his official powers.
To ward off Paxton’s electoral hinjinks, then, at least a five point Talarico margin would be probably the only way to squash Paxton? Or maybe Paxton’s hoping an Aileen Cannon might happen to be kicking around when he needs a hand?
That would be the case if elections were truly independent occurances. They are not. There’s a tendency for elections in one state to reflect those in others. Sort of a coattail effect, only across states. And this election should be a blue wave, probably a blue tsunami. So I don’t see the Rs taking most of those close elections. Maybe one or two, but no more.