Recruiting spoiler candidates isn’t illegal. But if the Peltola campaign paid Sullivan, that might violate some laws.
Like I said before, the reason I am at least 50/50 is not only the sheer numbers of seats that are in play looking at the polls, but the sheer number of them without a sitting elected GOP incumbent. Truly undecided voters, or even voters who can’t decide whether they will bother with voting, are partly vibes-based, and an elected GOP incumbent has name recognition and has already been vetted by voters on the bench as having an acceptable character. A sitting GOP incumbent who was appointed has some name recognition, but who knows if their particular vibe will just turn off a lot of people in that state, since the voters haven’t been given a chance to weigh in on that.
People are saying that this is a change election, and therefore it might be bad to be an incumbent, but in my opinion, that’s just true on the margins. You’d still rather have name recognition and a proven chemistry with your voters, it’s just that in a change election it won’t help as much.
Now obviously my analysis doesn’t trump poll numbers, but it does give me more hope that the polls aren’t wildly off on the red side.
Well.
Trump has rescheduled and will indeed be in Kansas and Iowa this weekend, both on Sunday. The linked article doesn’t say where but the original sites were Salina and Dubuque.
Wait, I’m confused. Roger Marshall just assured me that the reason Trump cancelled is because Marshall is doing so well in the polls… has something changed?
Now the Marshall ads I’m seeing are running towards “you’ve got to vote for him, otherwise the socialists will control the Senate”. A overwhelming endorsement of the man, to be certain.
New nickname for the Vice President:
Abdul’s latest ad: “Girl dad.”
Sorry, I could only find it on socials. If you can’t see it on the Instagram link, maybe Facebook?
In the past 5+ years, we Kansans have learned not to trust the words that come out of Roger’s mouth. He has obviously learned well from his orange idol.
Right. As I recall, Nate Silver’s FLIPR* model currently has this at about 25% likelihood – which is HIGH. It means, as you said, no one should be shocked at all.
(*Not sure how it’s spelled – I only listen to the podcast.)
The weird thing about prognosticating election maps is so many races flip on a couple points. In both 2024 and 2016 (the only “good” elections for Republicans in the Trump era) their victories hinged on a 1-2% national advantage. An entire national movement that reshaped American politics could have collapsed twice on a minuscule shift in public opinion.
Very true, and worth a reminder. Remarkable, really. In his book Wonderful Life, Stephen Jay Gould explored how so much big history (evolution, in this case) hinged on a few key moments that could have easily gone a different way. (The Capra reference in the title is deliberate).
Adam Hamilton made a quick campaign stop in my little town an hour ago. I walked down there and joined about 200 supporters in listening to his speech. (There were four dipshits there as well). Hamilton called for unity in our federal government and described himself as an ‘independent Democrat’ who would try to work with all Senators in passing meaninful legislation.
After the speech, a reporter from a Wichita TV station asked me if I would answer a question on camera. I gave my assent, and she asked me why I thought that Trump cancelled his Saturday appearance and then decided to come back on Sunday. My answer was that I think that he and the rest of the GOP are scared and are trying to drum up all the votes they can in the last days before the election.
Hey, I might be on the evening news today!
That’a really cool!
Finally something worth watching for people.
Of course, it’ll just be in Wichita.
Okay, then in that case “people” can watch.
I am sure that poll said what was claimed. I have doubts as to the actual votes. But this poll has very close numbers to +10
GOP Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall trails Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton by as much as 9 percentage points in the latest polls, an ominous signal for Republicans to keep control of the narrowly divided Senate.
Hamilton, the senior pastor at the country’s largest Methodist parish, led Marshall by 52% to 43% in a Washington Post-Schar School poll. The poll of 801 likely Kansas voters was conducted Oct. 22 to 26 and had a margin of error of 3.9 points.
Semi-cute nicknames are a trump move.
Populists gonna populist.
We should have less people who talk like jr high bullies in office. (Not to ignore the obvious fact that AES is the best candidate who can still be elected to that senate seat)
So Abdul’s primary opponent Haley Stevens (whose fiance is voting for the fucking Republican Mike Rogers) agreed to finally do a campaign stop with Abdul this weekend… but she expects him to apologize first.
I’m thinking the joint appearance may not happen. Abdul’s campaign just released this statement:
I have nothing nice to say about this woman. She’s barely a Democrat imo.