And despite my complaints about the NYT in general, their election trackers are very good. Even though the AP is the de facto arbiter, i will probably be watching the NYT projections.
I’m gonna keep an eye out for the NYT “needle” even though I still have PTSD from watching that thing gradually flip from blue to red 10 years ago this week.
I wonder if this image will render?
Anyway, it’s a grid of what percent of votes in various states had been counted by midnight Tuesday or noon Wednesday in 2024.
I think winning Texas is the clear number 1. Even if Democrats ultimately lose the senate, proving Texas is winnable is very big step in getting out of the doomerism that has mostly taken over the Democratic party. Plus the candidate quality difference is probably the biggest of any senate race.
Beyond that I think Michigan is number 2. Really don’t want to spend the next two years relitigating that race. I would have Florida 3rd, a longshot, but nowhere do the Democrats need a vibe shift more (Winning the governorship is probably more realistic and would have a similar positive affect) After that it would be really nice to win in Kansas (can it get pushed to a purple state) and do well in the other southern states. If you can show black people in SC/MS/LA that if they show up they can win elections might have a big long term affect.
Maine would be nice too, but I think I probably don’t dislike Collins as much as the average person here. She is still better than most GOP senators and the state doesn’t really have any implications beyond itself.
I just want to note that the Kalshi prediction market actually moved in AES favor following Stevens ill-considered reversal on the eve of the election.
A Dem victory in Texas means more than just a single Senate seat. Texas is to the GOP as California is to the Dems. Spiritually, this is their homeland. A victory here would put some big ripples in the pond. It would demonstrate for all time the importance of the Latino vote - sure, they’re not a monolithic block, but issues like not engaging in unfair immigration practices and conducting smart economic policies affecting them must be pursued to win their support. The demographics of Texas have been changing for decades. Also cities like Houston, Dallas, Austin, Laredo, and San Antonio are increasingly becoming Democratic bastions. As urban centers grow in Texas so too is their potential to increase Dem vote share in the future. The GOP may need to rethink their entire southern strategy if this trend continues. Texas has been the lynchpin holding it all together. It also sends a signal that voters have limits when it comes to tolerating corruption. This is a direct repudiation of Trumpism in other words.
And I have to go to an evening meeting between 7:30 and about 9P. Gaah.
Another very satisfying thing about this win will be thinking about all the money Elmo wasted on propping up his shitty candidate.
Y’know, I would not be so eager to be following the blow-by-blow. Why torture myself.
In any case in Standard Time I’m one hour ahead of the US East Coast so I will likely check out while things are still in flux and see what I wake up to.
As far as timing of the polls closing, and indicators to watch out for, here’s a summary that I grabbed from someone else on Reddit. It’s very comprehensive (so a little difficult to navigate quickly on a phone).
Clicking on it will bring up “page 2” which is polls closing 8:00 Eastern and later.
Haley Stevens is just so fucking stupid, even from a POV which prioritizes factional battles over winning elections. If AES had lost, the story would have been that he was too progressive, a good talking point for centrists. Now the story if he loses will be about centrists stabbing the Party in the back. Thanks, Haley!
Sorry, but the far left wing doesn’t get to pull this narrative after the shit they pulled with Harris.
Experience points to otherwise. They had four years to figure that out from 2020 to 2024 but too many decided to have another slug of Trump ditchwater Kool-aide instead and here we are.
I typoed Kook-aide and debated whether to keep it.
Let’s say there’s an even bigger swing to the Democrats overall than even the polls are suggesting. Kind of like the description earlier from Nate Cohn about how heavily the NYT is having to weight to deal with possible missing Republicans responses. Can one reasonably be big enough (say the generic ballot should really be 12% instead of 9%) to swap Nebraska? That’s got to be the last of the real reaches unless everything in Florida is way off.
I don’t want to get sidetracked, but Talarico has political talents that Biden does not, and I think his political talents will be more obvious to low information voters.
I forget, which “far left winger” endorsed Trump?
Inviting you all into this ready-made Pit thread for the El-Sayed-Stevens argument as well as general Progressive-vs.-Centrist infighting. We can keep this thread tidy for Senate race updates and ongoing Election-Day news.
Moderating:
Both, drop this hijack now.
Not sure why the Senate Races thread isn’t the appropriate place to discuss literally the only breaking news related to any Senate race, but sure, let’s go to the Pit.
I think we should have an omnibus thread devoted to actually following the election results as they come in.
I like it!
Texas aint going Blue. The GOP nominated a horrible Senate candidate, which means Talarico has a decent chance. The state remains a GOP block.
It also would demonstrate not Nominating an Indicted crook.