—except, of course, for us monogamous folks, who you seem to doubt the existence of—
I don’t necessarily want to doubt the monogamy of a single specific person… but how sure can anyone ever be of their partner? (remember also: when you have sex with them, it’s their past sexual history that’s relevant, not their future)
—If I have sex twice as often, I’m twice as likely to have an STD. It’s certainly not safe to assume this is accurate on an absolute scale - if I’m currently 65% likely to have an STD, and I double my activity rate, am I now 130% likely to have an STD?—
That’s not how probability works. When you increase cases, you don’t add probability, you multiply.
Let’s say that you have a 50% chance of getting AIDS per encounter. If you have two encounters, how much more likely are you to have AIDS than you were with one encounter? By your math, 100%, right? No. Via the multiplication rule .5 times .5 is .25 But that’s for only one outcome: both partners being infected (or both being uninfected, depending on what you originally had .5 be the probability OF). There are four possible (safe,safe / infected,safe / safe,infected / infected,infected), each of them with a probability of .25 Three of those cases result in you being infected: so your increase in activity bumps you up to 75%, not 100%. Think about it: if there’s a 50% of rain two days in a row, that doesn’t guarantee rain!
Whatever you call this sort of relationship, Landsberg is not making the faulty assumption you’re insinuating: he’s using a method of calculating probability, not simply adding up chances.
Now, your story about the possible group insularity of dating habits IS relevant, but then no one ever said that the story wasn’t relevant to whether or not a similarly restricted and selective en masse sexfest would lower disease rates (perhaps that’s part of what you missed in the rest of the article). That’s why we need work like Kramer’s to try and figure out what’s actually reasonably going on with sex these days, or the studies done on Africa.
However, there is a basic point that make sense with even a few people, which is also in the article.
I’ll restate it in my own words: Jill is potentially considering starting a relationship with one of two people in her office: Tim and Lance. She’s leaning towards Tim, so the ball is mostly in his court. Tim has a very timid sexual past: he’s pretty risk averse. Lance isn’t so risk averse, and he sleeps around quite a lot (and is likely to have herpes). Jill doesn’t (and can’t) know much about their sexual histories though.
On the way to the office, on the day they were both thinking of making more serious bids for Jill’s affections, they happen to see a particularly effective pro-abstinence ad. This ad affects Tim heavily: bids up the risks. It doesn’t affect Lance much: not only is it probably too late for him anyway, he just doesn’t care as much, and never has. As a result, Tim avoids Jill, and she ends up with Lance… and infected. In this story, it would have been better if the men had seen a particularly effective ad for sex. It wouldn’t make Lance much more likely to pursue Jill: he’s already a sleaze. But it would make Tim think more about the benefits of sex. And the result of Tim’s increased sexual prolicivity is that Jill doesn’t get herpes.
Now, from Tim’s perspective, having sex with Jill is a little more dangerous for him in terms of risk (she might be infected), and a little more beneficial in that he’d really like to have sex with Jill. Whether the benefits outweigh the risk is part of what will determine his decision about whether or not to sleep with her. But the key here is that Tim is missing something about his decision: the benefits to Jill! We can provisionally ignore Jill’s enjoyment of sex with Tim because she could be just as happy in bed with Lance. But what we can’t cancel out is the benefit to Jill of having a clean partner. By taking himself out of the game, Tim is denying her that chance, leaving her more likely to end up with someone like Lance.
That’s the connection that’s being missed: “safe” partners (who know that they are unlikely to be infected, but can’t prove it to anyone else) are underproviding their partnership because they only calculate the benefits and costs that THEY bear. If they would only consider the good they could potentially do for others, they might reconsider. Alternatively, if they COULD prove that they were safe partners, they’d be in much much higher demand. That’s why condom usage is one rough indicator of someone’s attitude towards risky behavior (so too, interestingly enough, is smoking), and subsidizing condoms actually seems like a pretty fantastic public health idea. Unless, of course, one happens to be the sort of people who thinks more sex and sexual enjoyment is a BAD thing, all by itself.
I guess the point is not that in every story, the moral is going to be that sexual conservatives should loosen up if they want to see less disease overall. This ISN’T about any sort of curve with a minimum, because every story about how partnering generally works is a little different.
The real point is that the claim that more sex leads to more disease is NOT at all the sort of truism it portrayed as being. It depends on who changed their behavior, and in what partnering context.
Now, there are arguments we can make that support the idea that this would be realistic (for instance, that most sexual conservatives aren’t going to increase their partnering more than moderately if they decide to increase at all, because chaning to be really really promiscuous, given how much sex you’d get normally, takes tons more effort, with diminishing returns: likewise, many really sexually promiscuous people probably CAN’T increase much more, because they’re probably already booked solid), but that’s where the fun lies, and where its important to have people like Kramer around.