Seattle got dumped on by the snow gods yesterday, so I wasn’t at work, and I did only a limited browse of the Dope from home. Nice to know I’m needed, though. 
I posted this thread in September to champion Lost in Translation and American Splendor. Lots of discussion there.
Re the overall question, about the Oscars ROTK deserves and/or will win:
I think it’s the front-runner for Best Picture. While I agree with Exapno Mapcase and Number Six that there were better films this year, I find myself unable to be depressed that if they’re going to lose, they’re going to lose to Jackson’s trilogy. (And make no mistake, it will be a trilogy win, not an individual film win, for better or worse.) Mind you, I will be depressed if the bloated Cold Mountain pulls a Beautiful Mind and sweeps as the “safe” choice, because it doesn’t deserve it. But I don’t think that’ll happen.
As a self-contained film experience, I thought Lost in Translation and American Splendor were both superior to Return of the King. They topped the scales on emotional, intellectual, and artistic achievement, with fewer flaws than Jackson’s epic. There were also some other very good movies this year that might be competitive in the Oscar race, in an ideal world. I’m a fan of Kill Bill, for example, though I know it’s aimed at a limited audience. Also, the performances in House of Sand and Fog are spectacular (though the direction is obviously by a first-timer, and I hated James Horner’s musical score). Finding Nemo was one of only two movies I saw twice in the cinema this year (the other was American Splendor). Ken Loach’s Sweet Sixteen is the best movie of the year that won’t be nominated for squat. Master and Commander and Pirates of the Caribbean are as different as seafaring movies can be, but they’re both a lot better than they should have been for completely different reasons. Ditto for the X-Men sequel, which surpasses the first film by a mile, and School of Rock, which was a lot more fun than I thought it would be. Whale Rider was remarkably moving, especially so for hewing so close to predictable formula; it deserves at least a supporting performance nod for Cliff Curtis. And so on. There are a few I haven’t seen yet, like Monster, The Company, and Girl with the Pearl Earring, which I expect to be good.
Of course, we had more of our fair share of crap, which drives down the average for the year and makes 2003, overall, a weaker year for film than I would have liked. Dreamcatcher, League of Extraordinary Gentlemen, Underworld, the Tomb Raider sequel, the Matrix sequels: they might as well have hired people to dump buckets of camel puke onto the audience. Big movies like Cold Mountain, Last Samurai, Beyond Borders, Sylvia, and The Human Stain arrived with lots of award hype, and then didn’t measure up. Wonderland was supposed to be the gritty indie of the year, and wasn’t. (That prize goes to the surprising Thirteen.) Intolerable Cruelty is fun, but still something of a disappointment given what we normally expect from the Coens. Old School was supposed to be the funniest movie since Animal House, and wasn’t. The Italian Job was just okay. The Hulk is a strange hybrid of summer action fluff and serious art-house movie, and doesn’t really work. Tears of the Sun appears to have started off with good intentions but goes completely off the rails. The Hunted should have been awful; the fact that it was passably okay is a back-handed compliment. A Mighty Wind was funny, but not funny enough. Terminator 3 sucked. Timeline sucked. Life of David Gale sucked like a black hole with a crack habit.
But, for me, Lost in Translation and American Splendor make up for all of it. These are the kinds of movies for which I feel palpable gratitude, where I walk out of the cinema wanting to shake the hand of everyone involved and say “thank you.” In particular, I think about American Splendor probably once a week since I saw it; the movie has changed the way I think about biographical films, and film in general. It’s a touchstone for me now.
That being said, I think Return of the King will win, and that’s okay with me.
Peter Jackson’s achievement spills beyond the edges of the movie screen, and that’s what the award will reflect. He was handed the future of a movie studio, and he handed it back to them several times over. He was nobody before this; now he’s at the top of the heap. He managed to get a major studio to let him film an unfilmable book, and he and his co-writers miraculously put together an adaptation that’s much more faithful to the source than anybody but the blinkered purists could possibly have expected. He ran multiple shooting locations using state-of-the-art satellite and communications technology, directing scenes on two or three remote sets while simultaneously running the one at which he was physically present. He filmed three massively complex movies at the same time, picking up only a handful of inserts in the months and years following to fill in gaps that were missed the first time around. And he made epic fantasy, formerly a “ghetto” genre primarily designed to put marginally talented cheese-and-beef-cake performers in revealing leather outfits for the benefit of drooling teens and social misfits (it’s a straight line from Deathstalker to Kull the Conqueror), a high-profile and very respectable public success, both critically and financially.
In short: While the movie (and movies) Jackson made may be flawed on screen, the logistical and political achievement they represent is damn near unprecedented. And that’s why Return of the King will win, and it’s why I won’t feel too bad American Splendor, a more deserving candidate if judged solely on the basis of the film itself, won’t win, let alone be nominated.