NATO leaders are well aware they can’t rely on the US. The silver lining is that they are already at war with Russia by proxy and doing rather well despite being abandoned by the US.
I’m encouraged that an attack by Russia is predicted to be on a smaller scale.
I think it’s essential that NATO respond regardless of the U.S. response.
Perhaps a few missiles aimed at Russian military targets would be appropriate. It depends on the level of Russian provocation. Any response has to be carefully considered. Target the Russian ships or bases that are directly responsible.
A diplomatic response would be a mistake. There are already sanctions against Russia. Adding more will do nothing.
This is pretty much the way I see it. Europe and Russia know that America can’t currently be relied on if Russia invaded any NATO countries. But I feel NATO outside of America is pretty solid. The countries in western Europe would not stand by if Russia invaded Poland or one of the Baltic states. And I feel that the European members of NATO are now strong enough to stand up to Russia, even without American help.
The answer to the OP question is “yes”, NATO leaders should fear – and indeed should clearly understand – that they can no longer rely on the US for anything. The good news is that this will only be true for the next 2½ years, after which there will hopefully be a return to normality and the Great Rebuilding of damaged institutions and relationships can begin.
Article 5 of NATO has been triggered once. Do you remember when?
The policy war gaming within Europe is that for the West, the US will renege on its NATO security guarantees and for the East, that the US might not renege on its NATO security guarantees.
Veering off topic but I question this. Trump will eventually go away by one means or another. But I think the right wing is making long term plans to stay in power via controlling elections. I don’t think we can assume things are just going to return to normal.
If they succeed in rigging elections and nutjobs continue to stay in power, then you may be right. That’s a really pessimistic POV, though. The SAVE Act that the Orange Doofus is trying to push through Congress would definitely weigh elections in favour of Republicans, but ironically, his focus on it to the extent of refusing to sign the bipartisan housing bill as a quid pro quo may be a significant factor in tipping the mid-terms to Democrats. At least, assuming voters are paying attention.
Further to this (I don’t think it’s off topic): I think it’s an open question, even assuming a Democratic sweep after Trump (which of course is highly questionable), how fast and how far US foreign policy would return to something like normal, and more so how much trust can ever be re-built. The US has revealed itself as a fly-by-night organization that can turn ugly on a dime. The rest of NATO would be smart to count on the US flaking out of any serious commitment, and maybe they will be pleasantly surprised otherwise. Maybe.
I think we should note that the overlap of those two groups is pretty high. So we still have about 70% of the population as normal people. Which the fascist know-nothings should remember as they drive us towards a civil war; they’ll be the losing side.
I think Carney was right in saying there will be a global shift. Europe and Canada will become the center for western cultural values. So if the United States continues to flake out, those values will still be preserved.
They should fear that the US might join the side of Russia as a new fascist Axis, not just refuse to help. They should be stocking up on their nuclear arsenal and pointing it at the US, and make sure we know that it is. We’re the enemy.
There needs to be legislation to remove some of the power the President has gained over the years, for example, tariffs. The separation of powers needs to be reinforced by legislation. DOJ should be independent.
Practically speaking, is there a threat that NATO (without the US) cannot currently address?
The example in the OP is a pretty limited threat and doesn’t sound particularly likely. If it occurred and the US didn’t get involved, that wouldn’t invalidate Article 5. The message would be that it was small enough that the US wasn’t needed.
Assuming the US continued to provide intelligence and arms sales to NATO, couldn’t NATO repel a Russian invasion? Ukraine itself is doing a decent job.
What other major threats does NATO have? China seems more likely to wage economic/information wars than hot wars.
Yes, the rest of NATO should absolutely assume that if Russia attacks, the current US leadership will do nothing and/or blame NATO while siding with Russia or at least being on the sidelines.
That being said, it’s still only the very eastern flank of NATO that faces true threat; namely, the Baltics. Even Poland alone would very likely be capable of stomping Russia on its own, based off of the sheer ineptitude we’ve seen in Ukraine. So the good news is that NATO would still fare decently without America.
If I were a NATO country leader (and not Trump) I would be working to ensure that the non-US part of NATO will comply with an article 5 invocation.
I would consider the U.S. as non-reliable, if they join great, but if they don’t make sure that all other NATO countries do anyway.
Even a future Democratic administration would only reassure me fire the next 4 years, nobody know what kind of lunatic will succeed them.
They can’t rely on us, and our army is being hollowed out anyway, filled with incompetents. We just lost a war with Iran, why would they rely on us with Russia?
On the other hand, the Russian army is already filled with incompetents – they are years ahead of us down the path of a corrupt, strongman state, where incompetent cronies are rewarded with important positions.
Since Ukraine has fought Russia to a standstill, I’m not even sure what Russia would send to the Balkans, but whatever they send would be easily defeated by the rest of NATO.
This is from 2024, where Trump regaled us with a story of the leader of a big NATO country asking him if the United States would protect them if they were delinquent in their payments. Trump and other MAGA politicans seemed very pro-Russian and wanted to throw Urkaine under the bus in the name of peace. More recently, Trump has threatened to withdraw from NATO because they didn’t answer his call to help open the Strait of Hormuz.
On the face of it, NATO leaders would be fools to assume the United States would provide assistance in the face Russian aggression.