[Originally posted in the thread “Russia invades Ukraine”]
A debate is shaping up within the EU over whether EU member states are right to be tightening border restrictions against Russian citizens fleeing the draft.
The main argument for such restrictions is that keeping disgruntled Russians in Russia increases the pressure on the regime to end the war and/or depose Putin. (There is also concern that some arriving Russians could turn out to be spies or saboteurs working for the regime.)
The counter-argument is that at least some of the Russians who are leaving are individuals fleeing political persecution and that there should be a way out for them, as there always has been for dissidents before.
(The counter-counter-argument is that many of those who chose this moment to flee are not necessarily dissidents or antiwar but just looking to save their own skin.)
Though I’m firmly pro-sanctions, I find this issue much more of a gray area. It really comes down to whether we on the outside have a chance of influencing the fate of Putin’s regime (which is something we can only guess at). It also puts in sharper relief the question of how we draw the line morally between treating Russians collectively and treating them as individuals.
The OP misses that, absent any other plan, most of those fleeing the draft are likely to stop in the countries surrounding Russia which have already absorbed literal millions of fleeing Ukrainians, which has stretched those nations capability to accept more people. That is also a consideration. Either the rest of the world needs to help those countries with this influx of immigrants, or there needs to be a way to distribute these people more equitably among the rest of the world.
The millions of Ukrainians we have already absorbed as (hopefully) temporary guests will be very unhappy to find themselves neighbors to a bunch of Russians who mostly considered the Ukrainians disposable only a few weeks ago.
Also, an enclave of Russian people established just on the other side of a border has historically been used by Russia as an excuse to extend its influence over said border, including making claims on said territory as its own.
Maybe the question is moot. I don’t have an English language source available, but news this evening is that Russia is closing its borders for men 18-50, so they can’t leave.
I suspect most Ukrainians would be enormously skeptical about this at the moment. And you must concede that European authorities will have concerns about internal stability and security were the two parties to find themselves in forced proximity.
That just means that they’re not allowed to leave, not that they can’t. Russia has very, very long borders, and if they had the manpower to guard them fully, then they’d be using that manpower in Ukraine.
Speaking of which, that’s another way for Russians to flee the draft: Get drafted, get sent into Ukraine, and then surrender and defect at the first opportunity.
The OP is talking about the EU. I know it shouldn’t matter philosophically, but if you’re pragmatically recovering from COVID and other crises, that’s something you might want to put off for the time being.
I reckon the probability to die trying is over 5%. Would you risk that? It is so complicated, I really don’t know what to think. I live in the centre of Berlin, where a lot of people on the street speak Russian. Really, when I get out, I hear Russian every day. I don’t understand it (my wife does), but I recognise it. Many are Ukrainian though, and of those, a relevant number are rich Ukrainians. You can tell by the cars, Ukrainian number plate, SUV (Porsche Panamera, Audi Q8, Mercedes G-Class, BMW, Bentley…) , new-ish, obviously expensive. They park wherever they want, and are not towed away (don’t know why, they should), but get a fine they will never pay (I mean: Ukrainian number plate… who is goint to collect that fine?). That is a bad feeling. I know there are other Ukranians too, but some are pro Putin and they live here. And many rich Russians of course, like London and Cyprus (and and and…), we were a favourite destination for those people since a long time ago, they have bought apartments and all that. What do you make of that? I really don’t know, my feelings are so mixed. There are pro-Putin Ukrainians here, refugee Ukrainians, pro Putin oligarchs and their families, refugee Russians against Putin, and anything in between. Plus Bielorussians and some more.
I am glad I don’t have to make the decisions case by case. It is really not easy.
So concerning the OP’s question: whatever solution you try, if you apply it across the board, it will be wrong for some. If you check every single case, we don’t have the ressources to do that. There are not even enough interpreters to handle the interviews that would have to be made, never mind the courts if the process ever gets to that stage. It’s a mess. There will be many injustices and suffering. I feel sad.
I suppose that’s how it worked during the USSR era? People could just walk across the border?
And the border was even longer back then. Was the whole military in Soviet stationed, Berlin Wall style, along that border?
I heard a second-hand story of a kid who tried to avoid the (Soviet) army draft by trying to walk to Finland and the miserable time he had trekking through the forest, getting wet, etc. He made it pretty close to the actual border and then was caught.
Note, the border is/was patrolled, plus fences, electronic alarms, etc., plus chances are the Finnish border guards would have sent him right back, had he made it, so the problem repeats itself on the other side.
Short answer: no, you couldn’t just walk across that border.
Yeah, they also asked “do you plan to kill the President of the USA?”. And I am told only very stupid people who did not want to kill the President of the USA but thought they were funny answered in the affirmative.
If I worked in U.S. Immigration and my superior told me to ask those simple questions you quote and to the let the candidates in if they answered no my job would be very easy but I would not feel I was doing it right. I would probably resign, but I can afford that. Hell, I will never do that job because I can afford not to. What about the people who can’t afford not to say no, who are doing or will do those jobs? I don’t envy them.