I split off the massive hijack of the thread.
MODNOTE: @WellHelloThere; Do not drag other debate topics into this thread.
Trying to answer my own question, I found this.
So I have some practical considerations.
In the short term there is a plus minus to having these”mainly highly skilled, educated workers” leaving. Of course this eliminates having a cohort or those already with some training and technical know how from being utilized in the war effort sooner. And it contributes to the economic price to be paid by Russia for their aggressive action. OTOH these are likely members of families most likely to be of some influence in society, maybe not children of the oligarchs, but still relatively up there. Having them among those killed and maimed in a stupid war is more likely to have more resulting broad discontent than having them emigrated to better opportunities in the West. Even a totalitarian leader ruling very oppressively would rather avoid broad discontent.
Long term? A Russian economy in a death spiral after the war is not what the West wants. No good comes of a country whose only power left is huge numbers of nuclear weapons. The best we can hope for is that case is that they become China’s vassal state and China provides such that there is security over the weapons and enough stability that Russia is not pushed to worse desperate moves. That “best” is not so good. Better that Russia is not so desperate, and these young educated men being there on the other side helps decrease the risk of that.
I don’t see Putin attempting to forcibly annex Long Island, but are you confident that a Republican president and Congress won’t offer it up if Putin asks nicely?
now that about 300.000 young russian males have fled russia to other countries b/c they do not want to fight in a war … and are now no longer repressed to speak their minds …
where are they protesting “Putin’s” war? … haven’t seen much regarding their opposing the war … 
300,000 young Russian males have fled? Is that accurate? It sounds kind of high.
I feel like your setting up your question with faulty data.
It sounds a little high, but actually not as far off as I thought. Bloomberg put the number at 200,000 a few days ago, and there is suspicion that it could be higher.
The 300K number might be confused with the number of reservists being called up.
cite (Bloomberg is paywalled, but this Business Insider article references it): Number of Russians Fleeing Draft Bigger Than First Invasion Force: UK (businessinsider.com)
It is a difficult thing on both sides.
For a Russian, you could actively oppose the war, risking arrest and imprisonment which would place a burden on those who rely on you (perhaps putting them at risk of having tea with the police). Or you could be silently opposed, or indifferent, or supportive. For those last two, the difference is vanishing, and they really have no grounds to object being called up. And silent opposition is practically indistiguishable from indifference.
Hence, a Russian man has the choice between risking prison or the Southern Front. It is an obvious kobaiyashi-maru.
Meanwhile, how should we discern who is whom? And, if you live in a country and fail to stand in opposition to its adventurism, do you in fact have a right to claim refugee status merely because your country has demanded that you participate in something to which you have displayed no evidence of objection?
If their country is fucked up, it becomes their natural duty to unfuck it, whatever the cost. Once the prison system is flooded with antis, the domestic situation becomes perilous for the oligarchy (and just sending those prisoners to the Front is asking for greater disaster).
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300.000 sounds ballpark right
Russian media, quoting government sources, have reported that as of this past weekend, more than 260,000 Russian men have fled. SOURCE (last week)
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but since his announcement, some 360,000 men have already traveled to Georgia and Kazakhstan to escape this fate, and countless others have made their way to other countries.
Last month, many Russians had evidently already concluded that mobilization couldn’t be far off. We know this because in August, more than 260,000 Russians entered Georgia — up from 45,000 in August 2021. And in the six days after Putin’s mobilization announcement, nearly 100,000 Russians entered Kazakhstan, with the suddenly booked-up flights to countries like Turkey and the United Arab Emirates illustrating the exodus now taking place. SOURCE (today)
FWIW my suspicion is that these people are not conscientious objectors or even morally against the war in principle as much they are committed to their not dying in the war. I suspect they were fine with it and the official lines regarding it up until their having to serve became a real possibility.
And I have no idea what your point is.
If they were morally opposed to the war you’d be expecting them to be organizing protests against the war while awaiting word of their fates being held by (or guest of) one or another non-Russian government? To what end? Other than possibly putting their family in Russia at risk of harm, what would that even possibly accomplish? Heck I don’t recall too many Americans fleeing the draft in Canada during the Viet Nam War organizing big protests there.
The lack of protest by this group does provide any evidence that my suspicion is correct.
Protesting while in Russia, that is potentially impactful. And despite the risks of doing so some are doing that, with thousands being arrested for the action so far.
It’s always easy to ask someone else to risk life, limb, and freedom. And the lives, limbs, and freedoms of their friends and family.
Noted, sorry.
I guess it fits in this topic: The Bering Strait is becoming the new Mediterranean, refugees are detained.
OK, only two so far, I don’t even know if they claim refugee status or asylum, but someone thought better not welcome them or more may come. Time to look up Frontex.