Several reports make the unsubstantiated claim that there are drones the size of an SUV flying over New Jersey. The Pentagon has shot down a claim that these drones are based on an Iranian (or other nationality) mothership in the Atlantic ocean. The mayor of Middletown NJ has stated multiple times that some of these drones are the “size of an SUV”.
Nevermind that there may be no drones that large seen over NJ, wouldn’t something that large show up clearly on radar? There’s no clear information about what type of drone is allegedly the cause of lights over NJ but several public statements say these are not small drones from Radio Shack but larger commercial or military size aircraft, but all reports about this are unsubstantiated except for witness accounts and video of lights in the night sky.
So just the simple question, unless it was a drone using stealth technology wouldn’t commercial and military radar in use have picked up drones the size of an SUV and tracked their travel path?
Back when I was a kid I remember a new story about a private plane that crashed on the white house lawn. Radar isn’t great at reflecting off of materials of some types, so I could easily see it missing drones the size of an SUV (which isn’t very big for an aircraft).
Small planes have been tracked over restricted areas in recent times. I didn’t see a specific restricted area of NH mentioned so far so perhaps they didn’t attract particular notice if they could appear to be a small plane traversing open air space. Someone should be looking more closely now after all these reports.
The reason is - the drones do not exist. I’ve seen dozens of clips and photos purporting to show ‘drones’; they all seem to show misidentified commercial aircraft, military aircraft, helicopters or stars and planets.
If there really were drones up there, there would have been arrests. I know of only two confirmed arrests associated with this drone flap; one Chinese national, who may or may not have been a spy - his drone was small enough to hide under his coat, so it wasn’t ‘car sized’. This was back on Nov 30, by the way.
By all means post any examples of real drones, or real arrests, since they would justify this hysteria somewhat; but I have extreme doubts that there will be many examples in that category.
Planes that fly close to the ground, which drones often do, are usually not picked up by radar. The reason is that they’re either over the horizon from the radar antenna or lost in the ground clutter.
Now, I see Jeff Van Drew (our Dem turned Republican representative) is claiming that the drones are coming from an “Iranian mother ship” “I can’t give my sources…They are highly placed people”, said Van Drew. The Pentagon called BS on his statement. No Iranian ship off the east coast or any other “Mothership”. Smacks of Empty G, if you ask me.
I’m a pilot and drone operator, but not an ATC person.
Remember that there are different levels of radar. The basic signal is what’s bounced off a target and back, but that’s not usually what ATC is using. Rather, they are normally referencing an aircraft’s transponder / ADS-B data. Whenever ATC calls out traffic that isn’t positively identified they usually say so because the primary radar isn’t all that accurate.
Drones also fly low, which makes it more difficult. And they don’t carry an ATC transponder. Commercial drones and those over a certain weight limit need to broadcast a Remote ID, but as far as I know, that’s not readable by typical ATC equipment (I’d like to hear from an actual ATC person to clarify that point). However, there are large drones with airworthiness certificates which may have ATC transponders. No idea what the stuff in NJ has on board.
My friends in law enforcement tell me they have some capability of tracking drones, but to what extent I don’t know.
My guess: There’s less capability than we might think to locate / track a drone, especially if the operator doesn’t want it located.
As mentioned, most radars that cover that area would be set up to look for/track specific things that the operator wants to, not “everything”, and even something the size of an SUV at very low altitude will be lost in ground clutter noise.
Now, as to specifically “the size of an SUV” – I expect many laypeople in Middletown would have poor aircraft spotter skills, especially at night.
This may also have a possible component of People Finally Looking Up and noticing quite a bit of traffic overhead that they had previously just sort of tuned out.
MTI (Moving Target Indicator) is a standard RADAR technology that limits what’s displayed to an operator (or otherwise treated as a detected object) by filtering out returns that aren’t moving fast enough or slow enough to represent the type of object the system is designed to track.
Since I assume we’re talking about air traffic control, the surveillance system won’t process any return that isn’t moving fast enough to be an aircraft in flight. Most times a copter drone won’t be.
There is no ‘maybe’ about it. So far ,every single clip of a so-called ‘drone’ I have seen has been a normal full-sized aircraft of one kind or another. The Father Ted syndrome; ‘these are small, those are far away’.
If anyone has taken a video or photo of a real drone in New Jersey or anywhere else in this recent flap, I haven’t seen it yet.
Yes - I’ve seen a few clips on the news and they seem to include navigation lights, very iimportant for stealth drones so they don’t run into each other while swarming the countryside on behalf of IranChina Aliens.
And in all this, it would seem that elementary second level analysis would include “what direction was it travelling?” for a general feel for the flight paths, but nobody seems to discuss this. Plus, if they were actually swarming military bases, it would be trivial for the military to send up a $25,000 drone to get a closer look, or listen for radio signals that indicate some level of remote control, jam their GPS, etc.
It seems that if a there drones flying over NJ as reported that they are limited in the size, velocity, and altitude or they would be seen on radar, yet still possibly not distinguished from small aircraft in the same area.
This question was hypothetical. But the answer doesn’t lend any credibility to the claims.
It can be damn near impossible to tell how big something is without a frame of reference.
Most of us have been on a commercial flight & know that planes are really, really large, yet when you look up on a bright, sunny day & see that same plane 5 miles up leaving chemtrails contrails in the sky it’s half the size of your pinky nail. That’s proof that things shrink when they go up high, right? If you still doubt me please see further proof from the Rick Moranis documentary, Honey, I shrunk the kids
I am a balloonist, I sometimes fly at festivals with a family that has (had) three identically patterned balloons; however, they were from different manufacturers & were different sizes. On the ground when they were setting up I could easily tell you which was which but when they’re in the air, I knew it was one of theirs by the pattern but was frequently unable to tell you which one because without knowing how far away it was I couldn’t accurately gauge how big it was & therefore, couldn’t tell which one of the three it was.
The smallest toy drones will fit in the palm of your hand with no part of it being wider than your hand, a $20,000 DJI Matarice body is much closer to the width of your body, with the arm extending beyond that but even that one will fit in the back seat of an SUV. There are very few drones, outside of the military that are ‘as big as an SUV’.
I’d also bet the majority of the public might be able to tell the difference between a GA/civilian small plane (Cessna) vs. a military plane vs. a commercial plane vs. a helicopter but that’s about it & especially the general public & even many in the aviation world who are more knowledgeable wouldn’t even be able to do that much at nighttime.
There are differences in airplane lights, placement/pattern of the landing lights &/or wingtip strobe pattern. I know this because I’ve seen & photographed them myself. However, I haven’t studied them enough to be able to tell you what type of plane is coming in for a landing based upon the different light patterns that I’m looking at. A cool bit of information to know & it’s on my bucket list to learn, just not very high up on that bucket list.
I agree in principle that aerial phenomena should show up in lots of high-quality videos and digital photos, considering the number of cell phones out there.
But my counterexample would be my dog. She is a howler and will howl every time she hears a siren or something else suspicious. She very frequently howls while lying on her side. Yes, she will be sleeping and then, without raising her head at all, she’ll howl very loudly for 10 to 15 seconds. I’ve been trying to get a video of her doing this for several months now. In spite of the fact that my cell phone is right here on the end table whenever I’m sitting on the couch, I have so far failed miserably. And this is when I’m actually expecting her to howl.
