Modhat: I’ve been closing all the threads started by this troll/sock but this one seems to have a strong life on its own and I’ll leave it open.
If you tried to convince me a computer could be a perfect driver, I’d disagree. But if you tried to convince me a computer could be a better driver than a human, I’d say it’s possible.
I wonder about the central premise of the OP. People with college degrees used to be pretty much guaranteed a decent job. The result was a huge influx of people going to college to get one of those decent jobs. The current situation is we have more college graduates than we need for the job market and those graduates are having trouble finding work.
Wouldn’t the same situation happen in skilled trades? If people generally saw having a skilled trade as a secure path to a comfortable middle class lifestyle, the number of people going to trade schools would greatly increase. And in ten years, the job market for skilled tradesmen would collapse in the face of this flood of new applicants.
The only skilled tradesman I knew was my uncle who was an electrician and did very well for himself. He worked as an electrician in construction out in California working on industrial sites. There were times where he’d be out of work for several months but when he was working he was making bank. My brother-in-law works at a chemical plant in Houston and the welders there make about $50 an hour and they do get overtime.
Eh, unfortunately, no it wouldn’t, as the capacity for those trade schools wouldn’t increase enough to keep up with demand.
We’d probably end up seeing a fair amount of tuition inflation at trade schools, and end up being right back where we started, except that people would be scorned for taking out loans to get a vocational degree in plumbing when they really should have been studying French Literature, as that’s where the jobs are currently at.
We used to have apprenticeships. The businesses that needed the skilled labor would train people in how to perform that task. We now expect someone to come into a job already knowing how to do it, and to have learned that on their own time and dime. There was quite the controversy in Cincinnati when the city council considered adding an apprenticeship requirement to apply for contracts. The skilled trade businesses were furious that such a requirement would even be considered.
Okay, my ten year timeline may have been unrealistic. But I feel that the collective capacity of trade schools would increase to meet the demand. If there were students looking to buy an education, schools would be created for them.
My larger point was that there’s no magical long-term key to good jobs. If people see a field where there’s good employment, they will flock to the field - and by doing so, will destroy it as a place of good employment.
Fifty years ago, telling young people to get a college degree was good advice. But it’s no longer good advice because we’ve had fifty years of people listening to it. If the same number of young people started going to trade school, we’d see the same thing happen in skilled trades.
Someday a computer will be a better driver than a human. In some ways they already are. But they aren’t better than humans altogether yet. I do want to see that day because I’m not all that thrilled with human drivers either.
In my post above I mentioned that the shortage of qualified electricians “is not entirely due to management incompetence.” But some of it is. We used to have a lower-level ‘electrical helper’ job position that could function as a de facto apprentice program. They could be hiring all of these less-qualified home electricians and training them up to industrial standards. But the powers that be no longer want an apprentice who can’t be plugged into a skeleton crew to tackle any task on day one. We realistically are budgeted for half as many electrician slots as we need to begin with and empty positions in this already inadequately-sized crew go unstaffed for months. It’s frustrating. Another reason I am happy to be approaching retirement age 
.
We used to call them ‘improvers’ but they would never be considered apprentice trained unless they had taken the apprentices indenture.
The advantage of the apprentice scheme is that it only fills vacant posts, it does not train people fo jobs that do not exist - its a requirement that the apprentice starts off with a job, and then moves toward an apprenticeship. The hard part was getting the apprenticeship in the first place.
I know a few large companies would take on 5 or 6 apprentices at a time when they needed only 3 or 4 - but given the changeable nature of teenagers this was to take account of a couple being unable fo complete.
You cannot do a trade apprenticeship unless you are working in the trade - you need the work experience, 100% tuition does not produce skilled tradespersons. It’s not like college or university where the qualification is the end in itself.
You have a wildly-skewed view of what constitutes “middle class.”
According to the Federal Reserve, the median individual income for Americans is just a hair under $36k.
Even if you’re going by household income, which is the more common yardstick, that’s a little under $69k.
Anybody who is making $100k is in the next-to-top quintile of income, which is higher than middle class.
What class would a truck driver be in if not part of the “middle class”?
They already are better than many, if not most humans.
They don’t get drunk, they don’t get distracted by their phones, they don’t get angry at the other divers in their way.
It will be a very long time before they are better than the best drivers, but if we replaced every car on the road with a driverless car, accidents would drop dramatically.
You mean like
If you don’t like my driving stay out of the ocean?
I work for a gas utility, and we are struggling to hire good employees-- we are in a demographic bind. We essentially didn’t hire much for years, but our aging workforce has been retiring in the last few years and we are having a tough time replacing them.
These jobs pay well and are stable–401k, pension, health benefits. With overtime, many clear over $100,000 a year. Some field employees have turned down supervisor positions because it would be a pay cut.
One of the issues in hiring is a small pool to hire from. We want high school graduates, and some sort of tech school degree is desirable, though there are few utility construction programs. CDL is a plus, as is experience with backhoes/earth moving equipment. We fall under Federal pipeline regulations, however, so job seekers must pass a drug test and employees are subject to regular drug tests, and because we may have to go into people’s homes, applicants must pass a background check.
Add to that they can’t be afraid to get dirty, work overtime if needed, and be outside in the elements…well, it’s getting hard to find good employees.
Other than the CDL & earth moving equipment, everything you say applies to aviation mechanics and all the folks who work in aerospace assembly and building and operating the associated tooling & factories.
We are about to have a cataclysmic loss of experienced headcount. The first 10-15% is already out the door and the rest are going that way at a steady implacable pace. And despite good wages and bennies the whole industry is struggling to recruit.
Responsible drug-free people who can read and reliably perform skilled tasks once taught seem to be in very short supply.
It’s still good advice for most students. The salary gap between college graduates and non-graduates is growing, not shrinking, and over a lifetime it far exceeds the cost of tuition even at the most expensive schools. The students for whom “go to college” is bad advice are mostly the ones who go but don’t graduate. Some of these students might be well served by going to trade school instead, if it’s what they are interested in and good at, but others have issues that trade school is not going to solve, like chronic depression or complicated family drama that leaves them unable to concentrate on anything else. There are also students who are simply not very bright, and might be OK in the sort of job where the boss tells them what to do, but they are not going to master more skilled work that involves problem-solving or managing other people, which is usually the level you need to advance to in a trade in order to earn a middle-class income.
Honestly, I think “figuring out what to do with people who are not really suited for the sort of work that pays well in a modern, automated economy, while still giving them some dignity and a reasonable standard of living” is going to be one of the big problems we have to solve as a society over the next century or so. I have no idea how we’re going to solve it, but the problem with “trade school” as an answer is that it disproportionately benefits people who would also be good at other stuff if they decided to do something else.
I saw a report years ago about the same shortage affecting electrical utilities, except they were looking at an aging workforce of linemen. Jobs that required people to work in all sorts of weather up on utility poles but paying really good salaries.
Being able to read manufacturer’s instructions for tools and equipment, as well as operations and maintenance manuals, is very important. Plus they need to have good problem solving skills.
Sure, a helper can just do what he’s told, but a foreman needs a lot of knowledge and skill and you don’t just spring fully formed from the head of Zeus.
Utilities in general have older-than-average workforces, and people are walking out the door every day. Every trade association and conference usually has a presentation on hiring, training, and keeping good employees. Many of them turn into hating on millenials, which makes me roll my eyes, but the industry is having a tough time.
This is where a UBI of some sort steps in. If there really are not jobs that a person is able to do, then why should their ability to find a job be tied to their ability to survive?
And, if they don’t have the pressure of having to work in a job they are not suited for, then they may actually find a different way of being productive.
Yes but …
That amounts to comparing the average income of all college grads w the average income of all non-college grads. Each group is actually a skewed bell curve. And, like curves of e.g. male vs female height, there’s a large overlap in the middle.
What’s different versus height is the shape of the skewness. There are far more people below the cadre average than above. And far more privation on the unhappy side of the median than there is luxo on the happy side, despite equal headcounts on both sides of the median by definition.
With that background …
The skilled trades, and especially those employed by big companies and/or in unionized positions, are the happy end of the non-college curve. The part timers working Mom & Pop retail or the night shift at Denny’s are the unhappy end. With the mass of unemployables settling even further below them.
Meanwhile over in the college crowd the curve has a few neurosurgeons and celebrity lawyers and CEOs and a vast array of “pink collar” drudge clerical jobs that require a college degree more as a matter of proving you can read than actually needing any deep skills gained at college.
For folks of a mechanical hands-on mindset and perhaps weak-ish people skills, they’d often do a heck of a lot better on the happy side of the no-college curve than on the unhappy side of the college curve.
And that’s before we consider the points by you later that the trajectory of automation and off-shoring hit the different educational and economic strata very unevenly; It’s not nearly as simple as “the more college you have, the safer you are.”