Getting back to the old OP, there will be an optimal strategy to allow you to win the highest percentage of the games, but using any strategy, there will always be winnable games that are not won using the optimal strategy.
There will be some deals which you can win by making a play that would normally offer a low percentage of working out well, but in that particular deal, it was just what you needed to win. The optimal strategy for playing Klondike would not make this low-percentage play so wouldn’t win in that game, although it would be the best strategy to use overall.
That makes me wonder how many deals are actually winnable. It shouldn’t be that difficult to make a computer simulation that would look at every possible play in a game to see if any combination would win. Then you could go this for a large set of deals, and come up with a winnable percentage. This number would be larger than the winning percentage for the best strategy of playing.
I’m really glad this is here because it’s something I’ve been interested in for a while (as I fill my OCD like need to play Solitaire too much).
First my play: I play single card, one time through the deck Solitaire. I’m playing with Window’s Solitaire game which as of Vista allows you to undo unlimited SO if you’ve got a good enough memory for cards you can, in theory, win any game that is winnable.
As of press time on the current machine I am on I have played almost 5700 games. My win rate is ~5.5%. I go through spurts of winning more, losing more, losing but getting some good cash but as time goes on that number has grown incredibly stable.
Given there are some times that my head isn’t in the game and I miss something or I don’t go through the trouble of finding the optimum path w/ undo so there may be some wins I’ve left on the table or some cash but 5.5% might just be extremely close to the real “winnable” percentage given my sample size for single-card Klondike on Windows. (I’ve played much more otherwise too… just not on this host’s memory).
Side conversation: I play Vegas style where it charges me $52 per deal and I get $5 per card back. One of the things I do is always leave a game open until I am in the positive cash wise. I’ve gone as negative as $1600 but always manage to make it back to 0 or above (I’ve gone as high positive as $1300 before i closed that game… had to reboot). That being said it seems like, given the ability to undo, one would be able to consistently make money if this game existed in Vegas video poker as long as you were willing to go a ways down before you cam back up.
I’ve never won a single game going through the deck only once. The fact that you are getting a 5% win on going through the deck once makes me think Manlob’s experience is much more likely. You are playing with skill.
Plus, I’m not entirely sure the Microsoft game uses all possible deck configurations. One thing I’ve always noticed is that the first game of Solitaire on a newly installed OS is almost always really easy. I think Microsoft uses a prearranged deck, just like in Freecell.