Assuming the Pubs have the House on January 3, 2029, How likely is it that they would elect Trump as Speaker of the House, not as an end-around the 22nd Amendment but more as a sinecure?
Not bloody.
I’d put higher odds on the Democrats, if they win the midterms, doing so, just to advertise how Increpid and demented trump is.
Can a sitting president be speaker? Is there a requirement for the speaker to turn up and attend sessions?
Would he have to actually do any work?
Swearing in the members.
The entire history of Trump consists of those words, “Not bloody likely”, so as a dismissal it is weak sauce, so weak as to be clear.
The problem is not whether or not the GOP would do this as an end run around Constitutional limits. They’ve amply demonstrated that they don’t care about the rule of law and will happily take an axe to democracy if it preserves their own power.
The problem with the plan is Trump specifically. It requires him to (a) accept a lower-ranked position and then (b) wait patiently, trusting that other people will do what’s necessary to reinstall him in the presidency. He is entirely incapable of fulfilling either requirement.
If we stop right there, it is not Trump specifically.
Most leaders will not accept a lower ranked position.
I can think of two presidents who did it (Taft, Chief Justice; John Quincy Adams, member of the House of Representatives) and at least a dozen who probably could have snagged a lower ranked position after leaving office, but did not (Carter? Obama? Jefferson?).
It may be unfair to other U.S. presidents to group them with Trump, but Donald’s fellow strongman leaders are also loathe to accept a lower ranked position.
As for whether he would accept a lower ranked position with the idea that it would allow him to get the higher ranked position soon after, it depends on how likely it is that such a nefarious plan would work, rather than on some unique feature of Trump’s personality. Fading strongmen rarely try something like that because it is unlikely to work.
I doubt his health will keep him alive that long.
Except that may not be the case. What if they accept he will not take on a third term, whether due to the Constitution or health. It wouldn’t really be a lower-position as opposed to not any position. More of a MAGA leader emeritus position.
See above. It may not be used as a backdoor to get him a third term. Sometimes a cigar is only a cigar.
That last part is the exact same problem I have with the saying Revenge is a dish best served cold. Trump has no more patience than Klingons and, as he’s proving on a daily, if not hourly, basis, cannot wait to exact his revenge.
I have a problem with the word plan as applied to Trump. I think he has degenerated past the point where he is able to make and execute plans. All he can do anymore is react to whatever is presented to him by his inner circle.
I think that he is not going to be able to act on any plan that requires agency on his part. If there is any long range plan for Trump, you have to ask what is in it for Bessant, Miller, Bondi, Russ Vought or Vance.
He’s been in office 287 days and not one of the enemies he mentions in speeches is in jail. This is NOT because he ordered them jailed and was refused. It is because he is waiting to try skipping over legal proceedings until he consolidates more power.
Trump does not order illegal actions until reasonably sure they will be carried out. Seems like patience to me.
Trump will take any position that he thinks will shield him from the law while allowing him to grift large.
Huh? He’s always ordering illegal actions. He doesn’t care if it’s even possible to have them carried out. He wants them done and the instant that want comes into his mind, he orders them.
The closest I can think of is Putin getting term limited (three x four years) out of being President and swapping roles with Medvedev the Prime Minister, passing a new law making the term last five years and lots more terms. I think Putin is solid for another ten years.
There is no blatant, anti-Constitutional run-around that Trump - if the drugs hold out - will not try. It’s going to have to be a pinky-swear with Vance and Marcos yet MAGA demands it.
Or just cancel the election after locking up all the Dem opponents. Also very acceptable.
Lastly, I’m not sure what would have happened if Pence took January off in 2020.
The federal government does not run or schedule elections and does not have the authority or capability to “cancel” them, nor would doing so change the fact that Trump’s term ends on 1/20/2029 at the absolute latest.
So the VP Pence affirming the votes was just something Jefferson thought would be good to do before Inaugurating a new President with the current one highly reluctant to vacate?
Trump (claimed) to have no understanding of how his words would incite the MAGA’s. Now he knows he can do it all with National Guard / Military involvement, plus MAGA support and a cooperative Congress who will not impeach him.
The “absolute latest” is enforced by Article II, i.e. The President. And if all else has failed, Vance is Queen for a Day. and he and his consort resign and the Speaker is President.
As of 2022, what Jefferson thought is irrelevant.
Vance’s term also expires on 1/20/2029.
There is no “but what if I didn’t” scenario where Trump gets to stay president.
I reckoned this thread’s premise set aside Military Junta type ways for Trump to remain President.
The presumptive Republican Candidate, who would typically announce such is Vance, somewhere in early 2027. It cannot be Trump unless, as I’ve heard the 22nd amendment is amended to something like “can not run three consecutive terms but can run two,” yet that would require a crushing defeat in Congress next year and I’m assuming even if the Republicans win every Senate and Representative election, they still won’t have enough votes - and to change the number of votes required to rewrite amendments is the same percentage as changing the 22nd requires. I haven’t done the numbers for I believe 3/4 of the States but let’s assume that is a majority not reachable next year.
So, assuming Trump is still alive, Vance announces he’s a candidate. Maybe Marcos and why not Hegseth till at least the polls winnow it back to two possible candidates and perhaps that’s the Republican ticket. They will be running against Democrat Candidate X (right now the situation and Vegas odds favor Newsom or Harris, yet cannot be both unless one does like Dick Cheney and moves to another state). They will be up against the GOP machine and Trump’s weaponized DOJ.
Sunshine, lollipops and rainbows occur, and the Democratic candidate wins. Trump can still be elected to either house of Congress, or a GOP Congress can go ahead and make him Speaker if they’re inclined, but that would be stupid, and nothing stupid has occurred in the last 10 years.
If the GOP candidate(s) win, the floated and possible idea, one that Trump has called “too cute,” yet not denied he’d try it, is that if Trump is chosen as Speaker of the House, and let’s say it’s Vance and Marcos who won, they can both resign. Trump succeeds them as President, and the other two can likely have their current jobs back. They might have to wait till I believe early February for the next Congress, but that’s the idea.
Sure, SCOTUS can say that violates the spirit of the Constitution. Heck, in mid-2027, Trump (or Bannon) can announce that’s precisely the plan they have in mind to fire up the base and get the pesky SCOTUS decision out of the way.
Call it an omission or a loophole, yet the 12th amendment says the Line of Succession includes the Speaker of the House (USA born, etc…) , and the 22nd amendment says nothing about that Speaker being a twice-elected president.