To nitpick: If the house votes, they vote as states, not as representatives. You’d need 26 state delegations, not 218 representatives. Since so many of the small states are republican, the Dems would have a much smaller effect on the outcome.
Well, it’s starting to look like McMullin will indeed win Utah:
Umm, no.:dubious: One out of five polls has him in a small lead.:rolleyes:
Oh noz! McMullin broke Real Clear’s formatting! Still, it’s one poll. Hard to say whether or not he will follow the pattern of other 3rd party polling, i.e. collapse in the voting booth.
He’s gaining fast, probably because the media has highlighted his high poll standing in that state.
538 says he has a 10% chance now to win Utah, although their model is not used to the kind of dynamic we’re seeing. I say he’s got more like a 60% chance at this point.
OK, I say he doesnt win. Bets?
Let me see another couple of polls first.
Ladbrokes have McMullin at 500/1. Perhaps a fun punt? 
For Utah, or the Presidency? For Utah I’ll take those odds in a heartbeat.
Oh, right. That’ll teach me to stop reading the Amendment 3 paragraphs in. So, yeah, even less chance, then. You don’t just need any 30 republican defectors, you need specific ones from certain states.
Sorry, OP, I bet hardly anybody really knows anything about this guy to opine, but lots of us like to speculate on elections!
Three straight polls now showing McMullin either ahead, or one point behind:
He’s clearly got momentum here, which does not happen to third party candidates in October. I think Utah’s actually going to give their votes to their favorite son. Good on them.
And that is why I love the Dope.
A McMullin victory in Utah would do wonders for 3rd parties. Showing it can actually be done.
I don’t know about that since this is a pretty peculiar set of circumstances. He’s a “favorite son” candidate running against two unusually unfavorable candidates.
Which is a bad thing.
Sure, but I don’t think the average voter would analyze that deeply. They’ll just read, “For first time in 48(?) years, a 3rd-party candidate wins a state!”
I don’t think that’s really true, since McMullin is actually the darling of the Never Trump movement. He’s the de facto Republican candidate, if a Republican candidate had no money.
I think the real lesson of McMullin is that despite it not being a thing for about 40 years, favorite son candidates can still be a factor if the two major party candidates suck. And that might be something for a third party like the LP to try: instead of running one national candidate, perhaps just recruit as many popular state candiddates who can possibly win their own state instead. So Johnson in New Mexico, Weld in Massachusetts, Ron Paul in Texas, etc.
OMG, he’s a Conehead!: http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/21/politics/evan-mcmullin-utah/index.html
Here’s more on his running mate: Mindy Finn - Wikipedia
His chances are far better than your chances of winning the lottery, at least the big prize. Heck so are my chances.
It would be more fun were the candidate more fun. I’ve known Mormons and “fun” only enters the conversation when preceded by “not a lot of.”