Anti-Trump Republican Evan McMullin to launch independent bid for presidency
So, is this a real thing that could affect the result in November, or a waste of time as the registration to get on the ballot in many states has already passed? Certainly he can’t win, but even getting on the ballot in a handful of states could affect who gets the EVs.
So, is that the whole plan, or is there another angle here that I’m missing? Thanks.
I think I can answer all your questions in one word: who?
It’s an attempt to shame republican leadership who support Trump and an alternative to those republicans who will otherwise be casting their vote for Clinton.
Does it have enough support to last through to the November election? Who knows.
Indeed. But does it actually matter who he is (at least at this stage), if he does happen to have serious financial backing and the ground game organisation to get his name on a few key ballots? Especially if he is seen to have solid, traditional conservative credentials? Quite a lot of ifs in there, admittedly.
So, are there generally a lot of lesser-known names picking up a small amount of votes on the presidential ballot in each state then?
How could he possibly have good ground game organization? A guy who’s never run for anything and probably never organized more than his wife’s birthday party is going set up a multi-state petition drive/ballot access campaign?
I’m not trying to be the seller of this particular story, but trying to play Devil’s Advocate a little to see what the possible drivers for this could be:
I’m presuming (without evidence I admit) that as several other bigger names had considered an independent run and then stepped away, that this guy being willing to stand up now knows for sure there is some level of support from the #nevertrump crowd and perhaps access to Koch money too, and within that tent there must be plenty of well connected and organised teams of political operatives who, with the right funding can get things moving. If, if, if.
I’m presuming much too much (likely), but without being sure of the money and expertise being there to back a run like this, the only other options I can see that could drive such an announcement as this are vanity and insanity.
It’s a McGuffin for the #nevertrump movement.
This guy isn’t supposed to win. He doesn’t need a ground game or anything resembling a traditional campaign.
This is simply a move by GOP establishment to give cover to those republicans who cannot in clear conscience vote for Trump, but also do not want to have to answer in the next election about why they voted for Hillary.
He’s not just some random guy, he does have some backing:
Also, it is significant that he’s a Mormon who went to Brigham Young. Mormons especially don’t like Trump. Bill Clinton was campaigning for Hillary in Utah recently, apparently the first time that a Democrat has been campaigning for president in Utah for years. This article was posted before McMillan’s bid became news, but it applies:
I’m guessing that if McMillan picks up many votes, it won’t be people who genuinely think that he can win, but just that they would feel more comfortable voting for him than Clinton or Johnson. And it’s a way to get Mormons out to vote for down ticket races. This could be interesting.
But McMullin is no one at all; there is doubt as to whether he can even get on the ballot. Where is the evidence he is backed by the GOP establishment?
If legitimate Republicans and donors rally around him and help get him on the ballots it’ll mean something, but if not this story will be buried like a dead hamster in 72 hours and he won’t draw a single vote away from anyone.
They’re politicians. They can’t lie about it?
He’s just a place for Republicans who hate Trump and won’t vote libertarian to go. This probably hurts Gary Johnson more than it does Donald Trump.
Filing deadlines and signature requirements
Within the month:
Alabama 5,000 8/18/2016
Alaska 3,005 8/10/2016
California 178,039 8/12/2016
Colorado 5,000 8/10/2016
Conn. 7,500 8/10/2016
Hawaii 4,347 8/10/2016
Idaho 1,000 8/24/2016
Iowa 1,500 8/19/2016
Louisiana 5,000 8/19/2016
Minnesota 2,000 8/23/2016
Montana 5,000 8/17/2016
New Hampshire 3,000 8/10/2016
New York 15,000 8/23/2016
Ohio 5,000 8/10/2016
Oregon 17,893 8/30/2016
Tennessee 275 8/18/2016
Utah 1,000 8/15/2016
Virginia 5,000 8/26/2016
D.C. 4,600 8/10/2016
Wyoming 3,302 8/30/2016
Note: Two states (Colorado and Louisiana) allow independent candidates
to pay filing fees in lieu of submitting petitions.
(apologies for the formatting)
(26 deadlines have passed, 5 are next month)
That is a hell of a lot of signatures and form filing within 3 weeks.
As I noted on the predictions thread, this could be the straw that tips Utah in to the blue column (it’s already much closer than usual, with the Mormon vote being repelled from il Doofus by his libertine personal lifestyle and influenced by Mitt Romney’s disdain for him).
If he is mainly aimed at the Mormons, then he’ll have little trouble getting 1,000 signatures in a week and getting on Utah’s ballots, and even less trouble getting 1,000 signatures in two and half weeks to get on Idaho’s ballots.
Some of those aren’t all that relevant; it’s pretty clear that this campaign is going to be focused on the Mountain West for the dual purposes of 1)attracting the NeverTrump Mormon vote and 2)diverting said NeverTrump Mormon vote away from Johnson to prevent the Libertarians from getting to the threshold of guaranteed ballot access for next time around (which would increase their ability to siphon off some votes from the GOP).
Yeah, Republicans who hate Trump already have Johnson or not voting as an option. He may siphon a few points from Johnson and give Red blooded Republicans who hate Trump but don’t like Johnson or Clinton either, a way to feel as though they have done their patriotic duty, but anyone who is a Trump hating Republican but who has decided to none the less give a vote to Trump or Hillary, isn’t going to throw their vote away on a third party nobody.
Sure, a few of them are doable. But he also has to get people to realize and remember on election day that he’s the “real Republican” in the list of independents. So it depends what his real purpose is. If it’s just to make sure Republicans turn out in a couple of states that hate Trump, well maybe a hopeless independent run can do that but I doubt it. If he just wants to start some name recognition for some future political run in Utah, ok that may be reasonable.
I agree and that may be a primary motivation among his backers. Utah only has 6 electoral votes but, without that particular state, Trump’s electoral path is all but foreclosed. Hillary could lose Nevada, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina (give Georgia and Arizona to Trump as well)…and Trump would still only have 259 electoral votes. Although, according to the list above, I suppose the only states McMullin could realistically draw enough support in to affect the race are Iowa and Utah, unless he can get on the ballot in Ohio in 2 days. Frankly, it’s very difficult for me to imagine Trump could win any other state won by Obama in 2012. I think Hillary would have to completely collapse for that to happen.
Note that I had Iowa in Trump’s camp as well in that count of 259 electoral votes.
How could that be a remotely useful exercise? I can’t find anything on this threshold you speak of but I know the Utah Libertarian party is officially recognized already and I doubt they have any trouble getting on the ballot even if it isn’t automatic.
Utah Libertarians become first ‘qualified party’ under new election law