Yes it is his real name.
He is one of the cardinals in the lineup for the next pope.
It would be amusing to end up with Pope Pizzaballa in the future.
Who was the last pope who didn’t change his name upon becoming pope?
Back to the consequences of the war: Like nobody saw this coming.
As soon as this war started, I told a friend, “There’s no way I’m getting on a US flagged plane for the foreseeable future”. He echoed that sentiment.
DIesel is cheap compared to jet fuel – the price has doubled since the start of the war:
The lack of trust runs through Bush Junior, who took Europe into war in Iraq based on faulty intelligence. And then failed the pacification.
That’s lack of trust on two points.
The Europeans understand that American intelligence information is imaginary.
And they expect that postwar pacification to be run by American tourists and infantry grunts.
What Trump brings to that equation is selfishness. That’s not entirely new either. Germans understood that any hot war between Russia and t he USA would be fought in Germany, not in Russia or the USA.
And all tose prices depend on the price of crude oil and the capacity of the different raffineries to generate the different fractions during destillation. But the most important factor is the oil price.
Oil prices go up and down, depending on, among other factors, how the war goes, the situation in the straight (sic!) of Hormuz develops, and what Darth Fatulence confabulates during his meetings with the press. And so opportunities arise for those better (i.e.: sooner) informed than the usual suckers (i.e.: you and me). The Handelsblatt reports (in German and probably paywalled, thus translated by DeepL, as usual):
Unusually high trading volumes shortly before Trump’s U-turn on Iran
With his announcement that he was postponing the ultimatum to Iran, US President Donald Trump caused oil prices to plummet. Shortly before the announcement, there was a striking amount of trading activity.
[…]
According to data from exchanges analysed by Bloomberg, futures contracts for at least six million barrels of Brent and WTI crude oil were sold within just two minutes on Monday morning. By comparison, the average trading volume at the same time over the previous five trading days was only around 700,000 barrels. Around 15 minutes later, Trump posted a message on his Truth Social platform.
[…]
The markets reacted swiftly nonetheless: oil prices plummeted by as much as 14 per cent at times following the announcement. The nominal value of the contracts previously traded stood at around 650 million dollars (561 million euros).
Ah, to be in the insider trader’s loop with a promise of immunity! 14% of 650 million US$ are 91 million US$. Not bad for a couple of minutes of trading.
So one consequence of the war is that the level of corruption in the USA gets worse and the president and his family get richer.
In the “Speculation on Trump’s Motives for Bombing Iran” thread, I said ego and money. He has some plan to make money off this somehow. Appears sadly that I was right. Wish I wasn’t. This is the most despicable reason possible for starting a war.
Thing is, this damage is already done and at this point is irreversible. Even if the Straits of Hormuz reopened tomorrow, many farmers have already had to absorb this cost. Higher food prices before the midterm elections are a certainty.
I think that for once the mods have separated the threads unwisely: What you called a motive (the other thread) turns into a consequence (this thread) after it happens, all while and because Iran is being bombed (the third thread). Nice mess all around.
Not necessarily. If some farmers pay the higher price and others don’t (because they bought when the price was still cheap, or because they will buy when the price goes down again – the latter being much less probable, of course) then either some farmers will be able to sell cheap, imposing ruinous prices on the others, who will go broke and will have to sell the farm very cheaply. Or the prices will go up, as you say, and some farmers will just be able to cover their costs, while others will enjoy a windfall.
Keep an eye on the number of farms sold by the end of the year. And watch who buys.
ETA: Others notice too that someone is cheating:
He also wants to take the focus off the Epstein files. Which is also horrible.
Oh and that all comes with a bit of insider trading for him and his buddies. And Russia is making a hefty profit on this war too.
Total crook. And congress won’t do anything.
Is there a way to figure out how much insider trading these gems did before the war?
I agree with this statement, but I don’t agree with your supposition that higher food prices will happen as a result of farmers paying more to produce their crops. Farmers have rarely, if ever, been able to dictate the prices that they receive for the commodities that they produce.
Food prices will likely rise due to increased costs of transportation, labor, packaging, and other factors, not the increased cost of farming.
Some farmers will just go bust. And others will swoop in to pick up the farms for pennies on the dollar. Watch carefully to see who the buyers are.
Honestly, at this point, I don’t even really think the insider trading is a motivation any more, it’s just a reflexive part of the process now. I mean, everything he does either boosts or busts the markets, so he’s just like, “I’m going to do X in ten minutes, better buy a few options first…” It’s like if you have to go to the store to buy eggs, you might as well grab some milk and bread while you’re there.
Agreed, but even this will not have much effect on food prices.
Yeah, your probably right. There is zero planning here. But if you can be the last person so whisper in his ear, well, there you go.
Really, just being in the room is enough. Have multiple types of trades set up, and then just execute whichever will make money in ten minutes. Tariffs up, tariffs down, bomb somewhere, not bomb somewhere, you can make money on all of those, if you have a good idea as to when he’ll make whatever move he makes. Some people like Stephen Miller actually care about which direction he goes, but for the straight-up grifters, they don’t care, so long as they make money.
You know, we just do our best. With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, I agree – we might have come up with a better way to create division. But please know that before implementation, it was discussed extensively among P&E mods and all agreed it was a good split. We actually spent a lot of time trying to come up with a way to make the threads more manageable for mods while encouraging discussion among posters.
The only thread being somewhat tightly moderated is the original one, so that readers/posters can catch up quickly on what is in fact occurring and not get bogged down reading about the speculative stuff. The other two can wander pretty far and wide.
Sorry we didn’t do a better job. What do you think would have been a better division?
I think that while the stricter rules for P&E are in effect this kind of thing is inevitable, I would suggest reviewing those stricter rules, are they a net benefit?
We’re currently having a discussion about it. We may try a couple things, but we’re not ready to go public with that yet. We do intend to ask for input from posters before any implementation, but we have to get our notions straight with the moderator staff first.
Let’s not discuss this anymore in this thread. When we have something to present, it will go in ATMB, where it belongs. Thanks.
ETA: In answer to your direct question, yes, every time we’ve asked for input from posters, the view is that the rules are a net benefit by a pretty decent margin. Just know it’s not fun being the enforcers, though.
ETA ETA: @Pardel-Lux, please PM me your answer, if you have one. Thanks.