If I can speculate (or query) on Mojtaba Khomenei…Can’t find out much about him. Curious how hardline he is. Hopefully at least a shade more moderate. Crossing fingers he doesn’t turn out to be some totally unhinged tyrannical zealot who starts going off about how His People are Willing to Die For The Cause kinda thing.
Three guesses (and the first three don’t count) as to what The Cause is. Nuking first
I think it was reported that he was a hardliner and I doubt the death of his father, his sister and his wife at the hands of the U.S. will moderate him much… funny how that works.
Caving into terrorism gives the terrorists control and encourages it.
Hence my concern for the extent he might go to.
Have at. Not a problem in this thread.
Or maybe not awakening them in the first place might be a better place to go.
Thanks. Thought I saw a thread about it - guess not.
I would speculate that his own political stance is irrelevant, because he’s been quietly couped by the IRGC and he’s now just a figurehead or, at least, a rubberstamp.
Interesting. I just assumed he was in a postion to be as despotic as he wishes.
EDIT - but not the case:
Something that Iran knows, which is why it won’t give up.
It’s just as much terrorism when we do it.
By the way, for this reason even if the regime lost its grip on power there’s still no guarantee that would lead to reopening the strait. If the revolutionary guard can and will act autonomously now, why wouldn’t they or a splinter group do it in a scenario where they no longer control Tehran? The non-diplomatic pure military victory for the US and Israel probably has to be regime change followed by full on deIRCGification before the global economy can even return to its prewar srate. Makes perfect sense why Iran has such a steep asking price for a diplomatic solution.
There’s also the issue that we’re bombing them and we’ve proven we can’t be trusted to honestly negotiate, so even if every IRGC member spontaneously dropped dead, the people replacing them would have just as much reason to hate us and keep the strait closed. And go for nukes if they can.
The collapse of the IRGC would have a good chance of eventually improving things in Iran, but there’s no reason to think any replacement short of a puppet dictator imposed by us (again) would make Iran less hostile to us. Because they should be hostile to us.
I wasn’t aware till recently that the IRGC is much more than a military force, but has quite a range of governmental and economic/commercial interests, to the point of being a parallel government (cf the military in Pakistan and Myanmar). Not so easy to disentangle and supplant (come to think of that, note how in Russia the KGB types are running the show once more ).
A lot of MAGA politicians and followers have had a pro-Russian stance. I’m wondering if the revelation that Russia is assisting Iran target our men and women in uniform will change that attitude. I don’t expect it to change for the likes of Tulsi Gabbard or even Trump, but other politicians and MAGA adherents, who so love the armed forces, will be pissed. Right?
The Russian propaganda game has been good enough to get them this far; I have every confidence that Putin’s keyboard warriors will continue to be able to manipulate our citizenry into firmly defending historically untenable positions.
In 1980, no one would have thought Republicans would reject science and the authority of scientists or favor incompetent bombast over solid credentials. The doublethink involved in supporting Russia even while they aid and abet our enemies is minor in comparison.
So Trump has given Iran 10 days to bow to his wishes before he blows more shit up. Wow, not even the usual two weeks!
I speculate that this is bullshit, and there are plans afoot for an attack before this, using the thousands of troops that are currently on the way.
First it was 2 days, then 5, now 10…
Yeah, he’s manipulating the oil market again.
Last week or so he had a 48 hour deadline that was as meaningless as anything he says.
And yet, the market responds.
IMHO, one unforeseen consequence of this war is that Iran may realize that any hopes for gradual acquisition of slow gradual Nagasaki Fat Man plutonium-implosion nukes is doomed to failure due to decades of Israeli-American sabotage and bombing and that no such nuclear plan can ever reach fruition without being ruined in some way, due to its slow gradualness. Iran may then decide to go the much faster, simpler, Hiroshima Little Boy approach, the gun-type assembly that just involves ramming pieces of fissile material together in a tube. While such a nuke can’t be used in missiles, it at least gives Iran the political benefit of a swift nuke detonation underground. Once that first test is done, then it’s hands-off for Israel and America; just like how nobody has ever been willing to do anything against North Korea since its first 2006 nuke test, except sanctions.