[QUOTE=John Mace]
Plus, I don’t know of any Hillary supporters who won’t vote for Obama if he is the nominee. But… I know a few Obama supporters who won’t or might not vote for Hillary. I’d put myself in that category. If it’s Hillary vs McCain, I’m not quite sure whom I’d vote for.
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I know that this has been covered in several threads at several times, but this cannot be overemphasized. There is a solid core of hard Democrats just like there is a solid core of hard Republicans. Then there are soft Democrats, independent sorts who just happen to have found the Democratic candidate more appealing in every election so far. Next are true independents. Finally there are soft Republicans who may swing over in a general.
The core will is really ready to get a Democrat in the White House and they will come out for either HRC or Obama. They are a given but they may not be enough to take the White House on their own, no matter how revved up they are.
The soft Democrats would likely come out for HRC if they are not turned off by the process of how she gets there, but if she gets there in ways that smell of back room deals, without a clean win, they’ll stay home in some significant numbers or even vote McCain.
True independents more so and the soft Republicans will come out to vote against her. They like McCain’s independent streak.
As a “soft” Democrat (I’d like to think I’m an Independent but I’ve never not voted for the Democratic candidate so far, since coming of voting age 30 years ago), I’m with you John. I could vote for HRC only if she won it with a majority or at least parity of pledged delegates and without any tactics that smelled of dirty pool. Otherwise I think a McCain Presidency it is. Better that than the damage an HRC victory would do to the Democratic Congressional majority.
Once again, I think the various superdelegates are starting to be aware of that too. They understand that this is an election that will be won by appealing to the independent and swing voters and by not helping rev up the Pubbie base. Obama appeals to those independent and swing voters and does not rev up the Pubbie base. HRC doesn’t appeal to the independents much, doesn’t attract any swing votes, and revs up the Pubbie base against her.
Loyalty to the Clinton machine, fear of it, or not … I suspect that when push comes to shove the superdelegates would decide this election for Obama, even against a slight lead for HRC in pledged delegates if it came to that, because they want to win the White House and keep a Democratic majority and they too recognize that he is more likely to achieve that than she is.