[QUOTE=An Arky]
I’m kind of flummoxed at the sort of cognitive dissonance here.
All I’m hearing about (and not just here) is Obama, Obama, Obama, and Hillary’s done, she doesn’t have a clue, she’s going down, etc.
Then I see that in the latest polls in Ohio, she has nearly a 10 point lead.
Which is it? Are people in Ohio living in a bubble? Haven’t they heard about Obama? Are they anti-Obama hype?
Maybe they’re asking the wrong people. Are they only asking registered voters who voted in the last election? Only registered Democrats? Only people with landline phones? Are the polls skewing too old?
In Wisconsin, the final polls showed Obama ahead, 47 to 42. He won 58 to 41. Obviously, there is some sort of disconnect here.
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I don’t have anything to contribute on whether the pollsters are talking to the right people, but: right now the RCP averages have Clinton up by 2.8% in TX, and 8.8% in OH.
Like it or not, a 3% win and a 9% win, even in big states like Ohio and Texas, don’t balance out Obama’s string of routs in the last 11 primaries. (As it turns out, the combined population of Texas and Ohio is almost exactly that of nine states (including DC) that Obama has won since Super Tuesday.) As Eugene Robinson pointed out the other day, if the shoe were on the other foot, if Obama had lost that many primaries in a row, the entire Democratic establishment would be pushing for him to get out, reporters and pundits would be asking him why he was refusing to drop out, etc.
Personally, I don’t think candidates should drop out just because they are running considerably behind, if they feel they can make a better case for themselves as President than the other candidates can. I think organizers of debates and the like ought to have (and spell out their) standards for screening out vanity candidates like Kucinich, Gravel, Hunter, etc. who fail to draw significant support, but I’m all for their staying in until the last primary has been held, or until they’re mathematically eliminated, whichever happens first.
But I think the means of getting ahead should be winning delegates that people actually voted for in primaries and caucuses dedicated to that purpose, and that catching up should have to do with winning delegates as a result of people actually voting for you in future primaries and caucuses.
The Hillary campaign seems to be more intent on merely making it close enough with respect to support from actual voters and the delegates they elect, so that they can muddy the waters in a number of ways: by claiming that they’re winning the states that matter, by appealing to superdelegates, by pressing the MI/FL issue. I say, nuts to that.