Another superdelegate takes the plunge: Georgia congressman John Barrow will back Obama.
Hillary had enormous support because Lazio’s campaign ads practically said “I’m not Hillary” and nothing more. Until this thread, I didn’t even know the name of her opponent in 2006 because I don’t think he campaigned at all.
If someone who cared, even a little bit, had gone up against her either time, she would lost in a landslide.
We’re going to see more and more of this as the dem race comes to a wind-down. I’d say in the next week, look to more supers jumping to Obama, and if TX, OH go as expected right now, her campaign managers may push for a concession before the PA primary. Don’t forget Wyoming and Mississippi are next week as well, and Obama is expected to take those handily.
That’s an opinion.
The very fact that no one of any substance attempted to run against her sheds some light on this. If she was such a low-hanging fruit, why the dearth of opposition? I submit it is because no one else really had a chance, and they knew it. She was well-funded, very popular, and had the entire NY democratic get-out-the-vote machine behind her.
Latest poll has Obama 6 points ahead in Texas and now only 2 points behind (within margin of error) in Ohio.
It’s looking more and more like Obama is going to win Texas outright and has a good shot to make Ohio a delegate wash or possibly win it too.
Unless something very dramatic happens, I think Obama is either going to end up with a net gain in delegates or (at worst) just keep the lead he’s aready got. If that happens (and I don’t count a single chicken before it hatches), I don’t see how Hillary can make a convincing case to stay in the race. She’ll effectively become “Hillabee” if she does.
ETA Maeglin, I know about the vaguaries and imprecision of how polls results are reported, but since it’s all about apportionment of delegates and not so much about “winning,” exactly, I think the reported numbers are helpful. At the very least, they do not predict that Hillary is going to win by the large margins she needs to get back even with Obama.
And California, which is now considered a lock for the Democrats, was not so long ago a reliable Republican state in presidential elections. Before 1992 I believe it had gone Republican in at least six straight presidential elections.
Ed
This is very similar to the NPR story this morning where they were doing the math on the air and said…if nothing changes from today - even if we give Obama several point lower than he currently holds, he’s still the frontrunner…Basically stating she’s toast and is in a dangerous position to do real harm to the party.
She’s ready to foul up the Texas Primary now as a last ditch attempt because she’s knows she can’t win fair and square.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gzyHK9mkPnbtOUlBRlSZCvzfLDHQD8V42TM80
shaking head - does she really think making a legal challenge to the Texas Primary will increase her support? I think this is yet another move which will backfire and result in just the opposite effect, both in and outside of Texas.
But her being popular is your opinion as well. If Rudy hadn’t dropped out and he had the whole 9/11 afterglow surrounding him, he would have won in a lock.
Their Senate race was in 2000, so what happened the next year wasn’t going to be a factor. However, it does raise some alternate-history issues, since someone else would have been mayor on September 11th if Giuliani had won.
Anyway, at the time, I think it looked like they were in for a close race.
Damn. I knew that too, but my mind temporarily tricked me into thinking the election was in 2002.
And 4 more today.
Which is in addition to Obama getting another Hillary Superdelegate, Houston state Rep. Senfronia Thompson, to switch her allegiance.
I’m not much for posting polls (I leave that to Shayna), but this is telling.
She’s finished. She lost a huge lead and is now way down in Texas, and is barely clinging to a lead in Ohio. The wind shifted a long time ago, and she has to know it by now.
The polls now put Obama ahead in Texas, and show a tie in Ohio.
Meanwhile, the HRC campaign has launched an ad that seems more appropriate for home security systems than a campaign.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/02/29/clintons-daisy-ad/?mod=googlenews_wsj
Tuesday night can’t get here soon enough.
From cricetus’ first link:
So it’s gone from being a ‘do or die’ situation for Clinton to anything short of an Obama blowout is a victory for Clinton? I’m not seeing it.
They’re grasping at straws. No one on tuesday night is going to buy that kind of spin. The delegate counts will speak for themselves.
Good lord, just how foolish can she make herself look? From that cite:
My girlfriend, a Hillary zealot, is gonna be pissed.
At the world, when Obama wins the nomination.
And at me, when I tell her that these kinds of shenanigans have finally tipped the balance of my preference, and I can’t agree with her choice any more.
Somehow, I don’t think she’s going to be mad at Hillary. Unfortunately.
There, there, Cervaise, we’ll comfort you here at the SD in your hour of need. 