Is Canada poised for world domination due to climate change?
You think this is a joke, don’t you? That’s what the Canadians want you to think. But make no mistake. Someday they’ll run it all.
Well, maybe not all. But they have a good shot at becoming a world power and dominating central North America owing to their control of railroads, banks, and the Great Lakes. If that’s where you live, you’d better learn to love hockey and practice saying “oot and aboot.”
What, you’re not buying this? You wound me, but never mind. We’ll walk through the master plan step by inexorable step. Climate change is at the heart of it, but there’s more to it than that.
It’s now widely recognized that a few countries will be … eh, “beneficiaries” is too rosy of a term. But on balance they’ll suffer less from climate change than the rest of the world and they’ll get opportunities other countries won’t have. The lucky locales include just about anywhere above the 45th parallel north (OK, a little further north in Europe) – Russia, Iceland, Scandinavia, Greenland, the upper part of Michigan, and Canada.
Canada arguably is the luckiest of them all. Here’s what global warming is projected to do for it:
- As the planet warms, the amount of Canadian land suitable for farming will quintuple. Given that Canada has the second largest territory of any nation on earth (Russia is the largest), that’s a lot of land, till now undevelopable due to the frigid climate. Not for long. Here’s a map from a study in PLOS ONE showing the global trend (blue=good):
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Canada borders the Great Lakes, which contain 21% of the world’s surface fresh water supply, where the big beef in recent years, believe it or not, has been too much fresh water. I concede this is a concern if the foundations of your lakefront high-rise are being eroded by high waves. However, to put things in perspective, the Great Lakes consist of five giant connected bathtubs 243 to 600 feet above sea level with drains at both ends. Making the water go down when it gets too high is more complicated than just pulling the plug; there are court rulings and downstream flooding to think about. But let’s be honest – on the list of climate-driven problems, this is one most of the world would be happy to have.
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As polar temperatures rise and Arctic ice diminishes, the legendary Northwest Passage, a shortcut to Asia through Canada’s northern reaches, will be open to shipping for an increasing portion of the year. Canadians, being Canadians, downplay the Northwest Passage’s prospects and consider the Northern Sea Route above Russia a better bet. But you never know.
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The population may grow from 39 million now to 100 million by 2100. Granted, that’s not a projection but rather a goal set by a Canadian group calling itself the Century Initiative. (The UN predicts a relatively modest increase to 54 million.) The group says next to nothing about climate change in its promotional materials, fretting in typically understated Canadian fashion about the dangers of an aging population and so on. But come on – the Century Initiative people clearly are banking on a vast influx of climate refugees from the scorched lands to the south.
As a result of all these things, Canada’s per capita GDP is projected to grow 247% by 2100, in contrast to most of the rest of the planet, where per capita GDP will decline – see map below from a paper in Nature. Considering that Canada already has the ninth largest economy in the world, there’s a good chance that by 2100 … well, it’s not going to beat out the U.S. or China. But it has a shot at being up there with Germany and Japan.
Sure, Russia, with almost twice the land area of Canada, has even greater potential once Siberia warms up. (The ideal average annual temperature, science informs us, is 11° to 15° C, or 52° to 59° F.) However, looking at the big picture, Canada is an industrialized democracy run by reasonable people with an enlightened immigration policy (more on that later) and a commitment to the rule of law. Russia historically has been run by the likes of Vladimir Putin. Which country do you think is the better bet?
So Canada has bright prospects due to climate change, or anyway brighter than a lot of places. But Canadians aren’t just sitting around waiting. Not claiming there’s an organized conspiracy to elbow their way to the top. It’s more a matter of enterprising entities making the most of their opportunities – which brings us back to railroads, banks, and the Great Lakes.
Pioneering work in this regard was done a few years ago by my assistant Little Ed, who as usual was completely ignored. Here’s the gist:
Canada controls the two major north-south rail routes through the heart of North America
You probably didn’t realize the heart of North America had any major north-south rail routes. In fact, one of said routes has only just now been assembled due to the recently approved purchase of the Kansas City Southern by the Canadian Pacific, producing the remarkable network depicted below – the only railroad spanning Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, with service to numerous ports on the Atlantic, the Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Great Lakes.
The Canadian National operates a similar system, except that it doesn’t cross into Mexico – here’s a map.
The significance of all this may not be immediately apparent. But we can confidently assume the management of the Canadian Pacific (and also of the CN, which belatedly launched an unsuccessful effort to grab the KCS for itself) reasoned as follows:
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Due to the massive expansion of arable land in Canada made possible by climate change, the country’s agricultural output will sharply increase and will need to be shipped to the parched lands to the south.
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Meanwhile – I told you climate change was just the beginning of this story – the U.S. wants to “friendshore” much of the manufacturing it had previously outsourced to China. Inevitably a lot of these products will be made in Mexico and shipped north.
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So trade between Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, which has already tripled since the implementation of NAFTA in 1994, is going to reach new heights. A lot of the goods will be shipped by rail – rails that Canadian companies now own and operate.
Canada is buying up U.S. banks
Canada’s Big Six banks aren’t going after Chase or Bank of America. Rather, as in the case of railroads, they’re acquiring smaller American firms, thereby lowering the risk of alarm bells going off in the U.S. financial world. Examples:
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Bank of Montreal (BMO) recently completed the purchase of San Francisco-based Bank of the West. BMO had previously purchased Harris Bank in Chicago, now BMO Harris, which serves as headquarters for BMO’s U.S. holdings, which collectively constitute the eighth largest bank in the U.S. by assets with operations in 32 states.
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Toronto-Dominion Bank, which owns TD Bank, with retail operations in 15 eastern U.S. states plus DC, has announced plans to purchase First Horizon Corporation of Memphis, Tennessee, which if approved would make it the sixth largest U.S. bank by deposits.
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Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce purchased Chicago-based PrivateBank in 2017 and now has banking, real estate, and wealth management operations throughout the U.S. under the CIBC brand.
Canada’s other major banks are likewise on the prowl. You may say: the U.S. has lots of banks. Who cares if Canada grabs one here and there? Fine, be complacent. Just don’t be surprised if someday the big-name U.S. banks are still under American control but Canada has gotten its mittens on everything else.
Toronto is emerging as a global city
This is the most astonishing part of Canada’s surprising rise. Nobody can believe Toronto is on track to dominate anything, including – if you take them at their word – the people who live in Toronto. But it seems inevitable. Consider:
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Toronto has become Canada’s equivalent of New York – the country’s financial, business, and media capital. It happened more or less by accident – in his book Perfect City, Canadian urbanologist Joe Berridge calls Toronto the “accidental metropolis.” One break was the Quebec separatist movement, which impelled many businesses in Montreal, then roughly on a par with Toronto, to relocate to its rival, including – how mortifying! – the Bank of Montreal. Five of Canada’s six largest banks are now headquartered in Toronto’s financial district, a formidable asset whose importance will grow as the Canadian economy expands.
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Toronto is by far the fastest growing metropolitan area in Canada and the U.S. outside the Sunbelt, having gained 873,000 people between 2010 and now. That wasn’t really planned either; it just worked out that way. Canada, unlike the U.S., has long been pursuing immigrants to fill up its empty spaces; the largest share of them settle around Toronto. Sure, Houston and Dallas added more, but they’re in the crosshairs of climate change, and climate migration hasn’t really kicked in yet. Just wait.
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As a result of the above, Toronto is experiencing a building boom. In 2020 it reportedly had 67 high-rises at least 150 meters (492 feet) tall, giving it the third most skyscrapers of any city on the continent, with 31 under construction and 59 proposed. Meanwhile, Chicago – the second tallest city with 126 skyscrapers (New York, no shock, is #1) – had only 19 towers under construction or proposed, meaning Toronto was on pace to blast past it. One concedes the 2020 prediction may have included a measure of un-Canadian-like hype; three years later, Toronto has added 14 high-rises while Chicago built 9, at which rate Toronto won’t take over the #2 spot for 33 years. Still, let’s concede the obvious: With its densely populated downtown (275,000 people) and a new subway line under construction, Toronto is on the way up.
We don’t want to get carried away, of course. Is Canada going to be a global player? Good bet in my book. A superpower on the scale of the U.S. or China? No. The impact of Canada’s rise on Americans living on the east and west coasts is likely to be minimal. For those in the middle of the country, on the other hand, different story.
Two things could happen. One is climate migration. With its improving weather, expanding economy, and pro-immigration policies, Canada is going to start looking pretty good to people fed up with heat waves, droughts, hurricanes, wildfires, floods, and other disasters.
Middle Americans may see changes even if they stay put. The other thing Canada is likely to do, based on what’s happened so far, is buy up cheap U.S. assets and, in the process, reorganize the Rust Belt economy – specifically, the part of it centered on the Great Lakes. Chicago, where your columnist lives, is an example of how this might play out. Chicagoans, to the extent they care about such things, may be miffed that Canadian firms have acquired railroads and banks that used to be based here. On the other hand, old Chicago-based companies like the Milwaukee Road and the Illinois Central are now part of continent-spanning rail systems that support a lot of jobs. Likewise, Chicago’s biggest banks may no longer be locally owned, but the city is now the headquarters for the U.S. holdings of Canadian banks. So yeah, maybe we’re all going to wind up under the Canadian thumb. At least we’ll be working for somebody who’s got a plan.
As for Canadians, I get the impression they’re not taking their rising prominence in the world all that seriously. But I bet they’re also thinking: this could be kinda fun.
– CECIL ADAMS
After some time off to recharge, Cecil Adams is back! The Master can answer any question. Post questions or topics for investigation in the Cecil’s Columns forum on the Straight Dope Message Board, boards.straightdope.com/.
Very nice!
