Woke up to the news of a mostly-Arab, practically-all-Sunni coalition attacking Yemen’s Houthis, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Qatar, Sudan, the U.A.E., Egypt and (non-Arab) Pakistan. The Saudis, the leaders of the coalition, have pledged 100 planes and 150.000 troops of their own.
I’m guessing the Saudis and their friends do it both as a preemptive strike against any and all uprisings by their own disenfranchised Shi’ite minorities*, and - crucially - to try and limit Iran’s influence in the Arabian peninsula. So from a perspective of cynical Realpolitik, I guess it makes sense that they’d rather attack Yemen’s Houthis than ISIS.
Let’s see what happens.
Or, in the case of Bahrain, its disenfranchised Shi’ite majority.
Caveat: Let’s not let this discussion fall into emotionally-charged guesses and accusations, if we want those we can always go on other fora.
From what I’ve read, Yemen’s government have had to change locations twice because of attacks by Shia-backed and Iran-financed Houthis, pushing the country “to the edge of civil war”, according to the UN’s special envoy. Yemen actually doesn’t have an official government now because the Houthis put President Hadi under house arrest in January, although he was able to escape to Aden but no parliament exists.
The area - western Yemen - is strategically important because it sits on the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a narrow waterway linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, through which much of the world’s oil shipments and commercial goods pass. The coalition are being helped by western ‘military intelligence’ and are using western-provided arms.
Saying it’s Sunni v. Shia and/or Saudi v. Iran is like saying oil prices have dropped because of such-and-such’s ‘war’ with somebody else. It’s an easy explanation on what is a very complicated situation. It’s like saying all Muslims want to <insert gross generalization here>, or all Americans are <blanket racist trope>.
It’s plain that Yemen shares a 1,100km border with Saudi, and Saudi forces didn’t (publically, at least) go and fight ISIS, ISIL, Al Qaeda, Assad’s forces, or any uprisings apart from in Bahrain, which it also shares a border with. It does share a border with Iraq, though, so not sure what to translate from its non-action there. Maybe that place is too much of a clusterfuck for Saudi military to think they’d be able to achieve any significant role.
I agree that the situation is insanely complicated, and that we’d do well to avoid both emotionally-charged guesses and accusations and simplistic explanations.
A crucial question, to my mind: To what extent are the Houthis an Iranian proxy? To what extent do their goals align with Tehran’s, and to what extent do they differ?
In that same article, he also notes that the Houthi form of Zaidi Shi’ism is “a form of Shiism that traditionally was closer to Sunni Islam than the more militant Iranian Twelver or Imami branch of Shiism,” and that “Yemeni tribes tend to support the victor and sectarian considerations are not always decisive.” Here, he additionally points out that Zaidis even lack ayatollahs, a key feature of Iranian Shi’ism, and that Zaidism “is often thought of as between Shiite and Sunni Islam in many of its emphases.” So, yeah, 'tis complicated indeed, on just about every level you can think of.
Interestingly, the General People’s Congress, i.e. the party of the country’s former President, Ali Abdullah Saleh - who, mind you, fought six wars against the Houthis - has come out against the Saudi-led strikes.
Unfortunately, having a member of a disenfranchised minority reach a country’s top leadership position doesn’t automatically put a stop to all discrimination against the minority in question. America is one example; Pakistan is another.
The TTP and its ilk have attaked anyone who does not agree with them. Shia/Sunni/Ismaeli etc. Shias are not disenfranchised. And, more to the point, minorities in Pakistan generally tend to mean ethnic minorities (and all ethnicities have Shias and Sunni). A Punjabi Shia is not a minoirty. A Sindhi Sunni is. There is discrimination, but usually its on ethnic or a linguistic basis.
The rather simplistic reduction of the matter into a Shia-Sunni conflict is one of the reason the U.S. has failed so spectacularly in the region. There a lots of Shias in these Arab countries who are unhappy about Iranian regional domination, they may be Shia but they have no love for Iran.
Anyway, I really hope Pakistan stays out. Its going to be difficult (actually impossible) for any involvement without getting the Opposition parties on board, and they are as a rule against it from this mornings news.
Fair enough - ignorance fought. One question: Why do you think it is that the Pakistanis are at least considering joining the anti-Houthi coaltion? What would they have to gain?
Hard to say. Saudi are a major ally, and we do have a mutual defence treaty with them, so there is that. Oil at reduced rates? Those days are gone, our economy is to big and diverse be effected by a few slightly cheaper oil transactions. Wanting to hem in Iran, well most Pakistani Govenments would not want to see a hegemonic Iran, but Pakistan has major cultural and people to people links with Iran.
Yemen and more importantly Aden does sit uncomfortably near Pakistani shipping lanes so there is that.
I read that the Saudi government is ‘calling in’ favors they are owed because they’ve loaned money to all of the countries that are involved in the coalition. I imagine Pakistan may be one of the countries that have benefitted from that, but have no cite.
The Sunni/Shia confusion is further complicated because in 21st century Saudi Arabia the majority of its Sunnis are non-Wahhabis, Wahhabis being the ultra orthodox or conservative types of Sunni (making up a good-sized portion of al-Shabaab in Somalia, the other being Salafist jihadists) and are accused of spreading Jihadism globally.
That we’ve helped to make such a mess of the region isn’t helped by spectacularly bad journalism I see on a daily basis in supposedly enlightened newspapers and news broadcasts. Sound-bites in 24 hour news broadcasting just go to fuel many peoples’ prejudices, ill-informed opinions and basic tinfoil-hattery. You’d think with all of the resources at the disposal of our news networks and media, we’d be able to get some basic facts right. :rolleyes:
